Another Winter Storm For Southeast (GA, SC,NC) Weekend

[Weatherfreak14]

Looking at the models and the weather channel forcasts shows another winter storm saturday night and sunday night but the models have been consistant with the storm the last three days but yet it is not in the NWS forcast or AFD's

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_p06096114_m.shtml

[wolfray]

Accuweather has been talking about this system now for (2) days. Well JB and Henry have. This could be the snow storm we have been looking for. But with winter forecast, it is a ways out to be sure.

[Weatherfreak14]

OK local mets have been sayin sunday night here on the SC coast could get up to 2ins of snow for SC and maybe 1in in savannah area

[Regit]

Not only snow Sunday, but historic cold on Tuesday/Wednesday. NWS Wilmington mentions the possibility of temps below 10.


LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED
THIS MORNING'S 12Z GFS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S 18Z RUN AND
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH REGARDS TO
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.

A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SW U.S. AT THE SAME TIME A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUMP COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
SOUTHWARD. AS SOON AS THE SURFACE COOLS ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST...MAINLY
CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH MORE WET THAN THE LAST TWO RUNS WITH ITS
FORECAST OF 0.50 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND 0.10 TO 0.25 INLAND. NOT
READY TO INCREASE OUR FORECAST THAT HIGH YET. UNCERTAINTIES ALSO
EXIST WITH HOW COLD THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW 700 MB WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST IF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z GFS DROP AS LOW AS 519DM ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES...EQUATING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S-LOW 40S WITH
LOWS DEEP INTO THE TEENS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN KEEPING WINDS UP AND THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING. IF THE HIGH IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
WINDS DO DECOUPLE...WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SINGLE-DIGIT LOWS
FOR SOME INLAND AREAS...AND POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE FEB 5 1996.

[Weatherfreak14]

Anyone else tracking this possible weekend event?

[SCMedic]

Where are you guys seeing snows for the SC coastline? I'm here in Charleston, and there has been no talk of this whatsoever....

[Weatherfreak14]

Savannah locla met has been talking about it and the computer models have been pretty consistant with snow in the area plus it was mentioned in the AFD for the beaufort area from sat night- sun morning.

[Regit]

Where are you guys seeing snows for the SC coastline? I'm here in Charleston, and there has been no talk of this whatsoever....

NWS Wilmington was quite bullish on snow last night. Today they have taken it out of the discussion, not even mentioning that they were ever thinking of snow. I hate it when a discussion does a total 180 with no explanation of the current thinking.

Charleston and Morehead City have pretty useless discussions out currently, but were never mentioning it from what I can tell.

[Weatherfreak14]

I just waiting and to see what the next discussions to say about it. the NAM models still show the wintry precip but the GFS shows the moisture just south of savannah.

[SCMedic]

Can you guys post up some models or links? I've been searching like crazy because if this were to verify, it would be awesome!

Of course, if someone drops a snow cone here in Charleston, they close schools 3 counties away..

[Weatherfreak14]

Can you guys post up some models or links? I've been searching like crazy because if this were to verify, it would be awesome!

Of course, if someone drops a snow cone here in Charleston, they close schools 3 counties away..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/12/nam_p06072084_m.shtml.
Last time snow was metioned

000
FXUS62 KCHS 312039
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
339 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BUSY EVENT UNFOLDING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. AT ISSUE IS A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDING TO
THE COMPLEXITY IS A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WEAK WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE E SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
OR NEAR FREEZING ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF THE CWFA UNTIL SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE 600-925 MB LAYER WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH H85 FLOW OF GREATER THAN 50 KT
POSSIBLE BY 18Z THU. FIRST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE
OVERNIGHT. THE LAST THREE DAYS OF MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUALLY
TRENDED WARMER WITH BL TEMPS AT PRECIP ONSET. WITH VERY DRY
LLVLS...IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO MOISTEN LLVLS THROUGH
EVAPORATION. THEREFORE SFC PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS
FAR INLAND AREAS UNTIL AROUND 09Z. OUR COLDEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE WHEN
THE WEDGE ERODES. OF COURSE...THE NUMERICAL MODELS ALWAYS ERODE
THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...BUT IN THIS CASE...WITH A RATHER WEAK
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND A LESS-THAN-DESIRABLE POSITION OFF
THE MID-ATLC COAST...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN DEFYING THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 09Z IN OUR CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
NORTHERN ALLENDALE/COLLETON/DORCHESTER/BERKELEY.

WITH THIS IN MIND...PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ANY FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. WILL REISSUE THE SPS ADDRESSING THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

ALL LIQUID PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE UP IT. NAM/GFS/SREF ARE QUITE VARIED IN THEIR QPF
FCSTS THE NEXT 48 HRS. NAM IS NOW NEARLY DRY ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF OUR CWFA FOR MUCH OF THU...ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A BIT
EXTREME. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST OMEGA SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS INLAND
AREAS WHICH WILL BE N OF THE WARM FRONT...ALL AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST
MEASURE. WE COULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRI MORNING. THE OTHER MAJOR ISSUE ON THE PUBLIC FCST SIDE
IS SEVERE WEATHER. APPROACHING S/W SHOULD CREATE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ON THE S SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH AT LEAST A
MARGINAL REBOUND IN SFC DEWPTS. MODEL CAPES ARE LIMITED...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 400 J/KG FOR THU AFTN/EVE...BUT THIS IS STILL AMPLE FOR
SOME ROTATING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK INCLUDES
AREAS S OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK ALTHOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE WITH
NEWER GUIDANCE. KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE WATERS AND FAR SRN
GA COUNTIES. WILL ONLY MENTION SEVERE POSSIBILITY IN HAZ WX OUTLOOK
ATTM AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT ISSUE A SEVERE WX OUTLOOK IF NEEDED.
IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT SOME PAST EVENTS IN THIS SETUP
HAVE RESULTED IN WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH NO CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. A POWERFUL
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WX
WITH THE POLAR VORTEX MOVING AS FAR S AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS OPPOSED TO MOST SCENARIOS WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEFLECT THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN ATLC...ALLOWING A COASTAL TROUGH TO
DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE...WEAK OMEGA...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW AN
ALL-RAIN PROFILE FOR SATURDAY BUT TRANSITIONING TO ALL-SNOW BY
SUNDAY MORNING AFTER STRONG CAA COMMENCES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE QUITE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH.
WILL TREND COLDER WITH TEMPS BUT KEEP ONLY LIQUID PRECIP ATTM.
PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH BELOW NORMAL

[SCMedic]

So it looks like this won't verify now huh? Crappy.

Thanks for the links.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well the NAM model still shows the chance for it. just keeping fingers and toes crossed