Snow for NC,SC, and VA?

[txwatcher91]

Here is what the NWS out of Morehead City said in their afternoon discussion.

County Warning Area on sun. Next chance for signt precipitation appears to be Monday night into
Tuesday...but HPC grids showing small probability of precipitation for Monday (late in the day
I assume). Bumped probability of precipitation down a litl for Monday. Chance continues into
Wednesday when The Race will be on between the moisture and colder temperatures
to see if wintry weather will result. Too early to include in grids
at this time. Cold dry weather expected toward the end of the week as Cold
Ridge builds over the area.

The 06z and 12z GFS runs show a very interesting scenario for us. Some of the ensembles have been showing a similar solution. With an active STJ, this scenario doesn't seem to far fetched.

144 hr.
150 hr.

[shaggy]

also mentioned in the long range discussion from the HPC.They have a little piece about it also and like you said model support seems good for right now.We will have to wait and see on what actually pans out but the models have been consistent with this for a few days now so its sad because my hopes are increasing but will likely be crushed in the end!

heres the HPC piece!

IT WILL FINALLY
FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT DAYS 5-7! WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO THE ERN LONGWAVE TROF DAYS 5-7 BUT
WANT TO HOLD OFF ON COMMITTING TO A SN EVENT FOR NOW.

[jimvb]

I looked at the Morehead City discussion this morning. Here is what they say now:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF FRONT THROUGH MON AND LATEST GDNC INDICATING FROPA NOT UNTIL TUE AFTN....WITH POST-FRONTAL PCPN LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS ADEQUATELY COVERED WITH CHC POPS MON NIGHT INTO WED...THEN DRY ON THU...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

Fropa is "frontal passage" according to a reference that came up with a Google search. I checked the forecasts in the area. Morehead City and Hatteras predict rain with temperature in 30s and 40 respectively; other cities in the region are only going to be cloudy. So apparently no snow.

[jimvb]

The Morehead discussion now says rain Tuesday night, but GFS says Central Virginia could have some snow on Tuesday afternoon - probably an inch or two at the most. I don't see this on anyof the forecasts yet so I am waiting for the forecast to come out at about 2007 Jan 12 4 pm EDT to see if it contains wintry precipitation.