12/25-27 Snowfall: Great Lakes/Ontario

[donsutherland1]

Since December 12, the NCEP ensemble 500 mb anomalies have suggested some similarity to the December 19-21, 1974 period that saw snow blanket parts of the Great Lakes region and Ontario.

Then, the NCEP ensemble mean 500 mb anomalies for 12/25 0z were:


The latest NCEP ensemble mean 500 mb anomalies for 12/26 0z are:


The 500 mb anomalies for 12/21/1974 were:


The 12/18-21/1974 period saw the following snowfall totals for select cities.

Chicago: 4.1"
Des Moines: 3.8"
Detroit: 6.4"
Indianapolis: 2.6"
Milwaukee: 7.5"
Windsor: 6.5" (16.5 cm)

At last word, the major features are somewhat farther to the south and east on the ensemble mean than they were on 12/12. Considering also the 12z ECMWF and GFS and the 18z GFS, I believe the highest potential for accumulating snow will involve an area across parts of Indiana, eastern Michigan, western Ohio, and parts of Ontario (including Windsor and London). In this area, I believe some locations could see several inches of snow (initially, 2"-4" seems reasonable with a few spots picking up a little more).

Eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and southern Ontario, including snow-starved Toronto, should see at least a little snow as the storm heads away. There is a chance that Toronto could pick up several centimeters of snow.

[tomboudreau]

Hey Don...any ideas on totals yet on this system? Just curious. Got to go to work for 4:30 AM on Tuesday morning, and I'm just wondering what kind of travel conditions I can expect. Are we looking at advisory level or warning level snows? Thanks for any update. Have a Merry Christmas.

[lwg8tr01]

Hey Don...any ideas on totals yet on this system? Just curious. Got to go to work for 4:30 AM on Tuesday morning, and I'm just wondering what kind of travel conditions I can expect. Are we looking at advisory level or warning level snows? Thanks for any update. Have a Merry Christmas.

Saw some METS on Accuweather looking at the model runs last night and it's still up in the air when it comes to accumulation. The GFS shows a rain event to begin with then some accumulation like 1-2" in Western PA. That opinion by the way I don't agree with and it's looking a little less likely we'll get off that easy. Looking more like the EURO which has a low bombing out over New England Christmas night and Western PA, WV, Ohio being on the backside and getting dumped on. That mean upper elevations getting up to a foot with Pittsburgh getting more like 4-6 inches.