El Nino and winter

[Extremeweatherguy]

If a weak El Nino develops by the years end, what could it mean for the 2006-2007 winter? Is it true that more southern U.S. ice/snow events occur during El Nino due to wetter conditions? Any input would be appreciated.

[bob rulz]

Yes, I believe it does lead to more ice and snow events in the southern U.S...and also rain. All I know is I'll be happy if El Nino develops; that always means wet conditions here.

[gboudx]

An El Nino just may be what drought-stricken parts of Texas need. I don't care if we don't get a single snowflake, as long as we get rain. Okay, maybe 1 snowflake would be neat.

[CajunMama]

Phew! I had to come visit the winter weather forum just to cool off! Ahhhhhh...feel much better now! Thanks for letting me hijack your thread EW!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Phew! I had to come visit the winter weather forum just to cool off! Ahhhhhh...feel much better now! Thanks for letting me hijack your thread EW!

no problem.

BTW, this may also help anyone else looking for a place to cool down:

[Aquawind]

That does look comfy... for about a week..

[rsdoug1981]

Here is a site with some very basic el nino information. According to the graphics, el nino results in cooler and wetter than normal winters in the South. El nino winters have led to some very interesting winter events here in central MS north of I-20. I just moved here and I've got my fingers crossed for some winter weather this year!


http://www.stormfax.com/elnino.htm

[f5]

El Nino-California Heavy Rain/Mudslides Sierras gets crushed with heavy snow big time

Washington/Oregon Parched ground very little snow while california soaks it up

[bob rulz]

All I know is that during the El Nino of 1998 we got one of our wettest summers on record (record wet June), and in 1983 we had our wettest year on record. Those were both very powerful El Ninos, but I wouldn't mind a wet summer for once.

[Trugunzn]

weak el ninos usually bring cold and REAL snowy winters to NE

[rsdoug1981]

Dec. 1997 brought an upper level low that squeezed out a freak 8 inches of snow here in central MS. Other milder el ninos brought some pretty severe ice storms to this part of the country.

[wxman22]

The Elnino in 2004/2005 brought the great Christmas Eve/Christmas snow storm in Texas and Louisiana....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Our last bad storm (well other than smaller scale thunder storms) occurred that Winter. In March 2005 we had a terrible rain storm, that turned to an ice storm by the evening. The system knocked out the power for 15.5 hours, followed by a cold wave! Damn it was like a meat locker in my house, which has electric heat by the last 5 or 6 hours, and it flooded the yard with icy water to boot, what a mess! We also had lots of snow storms besides. I hope this Winter isn't a repeat of that one.

[PTPatrick]

This is my first winter in Colorado...anybody know what El Nino usually means for the Front Range/Denver areas

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hmmm. Not quite sure. I know with a Trough on either Coast, there was to be a Ridge in the middle of North America somewhere (just logically speaking). With Snow and Rain being wrung out on the Windward sloops of the Rockies, seem to me you might have Warmer and perhaps drier than normal conditions on the leeward side of the Rockies in an El Nina year. Now as for Denver, up in the mountains themselves, not sure. Though with abundant Pacific systems, it could be rather stormy.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The Elnino in 2004/2005 brought the great Christmas Eve/Christmas snow storm in Texas and Louisiana....

Like this one???

[Portastorm]

What a great image, CC! I remember it well ... I remember how darn jealous I was of y'all as it snowed on the coast for Christmas while we had boring cloudy cold here in Austin.

I'm certain most of us will be telling our grandkids about Christmas 2004 in south Texas.

[shaggy]

The Elnino in 2004/2005 brought the great Christmas Eve/Christmas snow storm in Texas and Louisiana....

we caught that same storm as it left the east coast and we got about 5 inches of snow but what was worse about it was that a few days before we had had another small event about 3 inches and i went deer hunting but the temp never got above 17 degrees and for eastern coastal NC thats brutal lets hope for some more winters like that!

[aggiecutter]

During a strong El Nino, the southern plains is generally wet and warm, although the late fall and early winter often times can start out on the cool and wet side then transition to above-much above normal temps in January. However, during a weak El Nino, the effect that it has on the weather is more subtle and things such as the NOA, AO have more effect on our weather. Of course things like the PDO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation also figure into the equation. I'm sure Don Sutherland can explain this where it would make sense.

[CaptinCrunch]

Sept. 13, 2006 — Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported today that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. "Currently, weak El Niño conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Niño forecaster.

El Nino winters in NTX bring above avg. precip and avg temps, however El Nino winters also bring an above avg chane of snow fall across much of NTX as the SJS trends to feed pacific moisture into the state as the NJS dips down the Eastern Rockies and out across the Southern Plains.

NTX has been in a severe drought since spring 2005, but with a El Nino winter taking shape this is good news and sure to break our drought. Already NTX has seen more rain in the past 4 weeks than it has in the past 6 months and the forecast is calling for another chance of rain this coming weekend with another cold front to move thru. Current Temp in downtown Ft Worth is 66 degrees at 10:26am.