Why do people thinks it will be colder when its a zonal flow

[boca]

I think especially Florida it will be warmer because of the zonal flow out of the WSW. I hope the pattern changes in Feb. The weather can be quite uneventful during this type of pattern.

[Portastorm]

The current flow? Yes, it's zonal.

The flow projected for next week and beyond? Nope, not zonal.

[boca]

Portastorm tell that to the Miami and Melbourne state discussions.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm tell that to the Miami and Melbourne state discussions.

I see that Melbourne says basically zonal next week but Miami talks about the SE US ridge breaking down.

The ensemble runs for next week as well as the operational GFS and European all point toward a more amplified pattern across the lower 48. That's all I'm saying.

[boca]

I hope your right, lets see what happens next week.

[Tyler]

The pattern will be anything but zonal next week...

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah guys..say goodbye to zonal..next week will be the transition week and in 2 weeks america will go polar!

[vbhoutex]

yeah guys..say goodbye to zonal..next week will be the transition week and in 2 weeks america will go polar!

We can only hope!!! I would like to see at least a few more weeks of "winter weather" here in TX. For winter this is even too mild for me!!

[jasons2k]

From today's AFD from Houston:

"THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED BY MID WEEK [next week]. BY THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL."

[Portastorm]

From today's AFD from Houston:

"THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED BY MID WEEK [next week]. BY THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL."

But keep in mind that nearly every AFD out of Texas this morning talked about how the medium-range forecasts were in complete disagreement with each other and that the forecasts for next week had low confidence.

I would be very skeptical of any forecast for next week from anyone (outside of our own Jeff or Air Force Met ) due to the significant model discrepancies.

[jasons2k]

From today's AFD from Houston:

"THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED BY MID WEEK [next week]. BY THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL."

But keep in mind that nearly every AFD out of Texas this morning talked about how the medium-range forecasts were in complete disagreement with each other and that the forecasts for next week had low confidence.

I would be very skeptical of any forecast for next week from anyone (outside of our own Jeff or Air Force Met ) due to the significant model discrepancies.

Very true. The big question is will a trough/cutoff low remain over the SW. HGX seems to think the flow will go zonal, after all, it hasn't changed in forever it seems.

From what I see, it probably won't be next week but maybe the week after (or even after that) before things really change. We'll see, we were teased back in December and it turned out to be a bunch of nothing.

[Portastorm]

From today's AFD from Houston:

"THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING VERY
POSITIVELY TILTED BY MID WEEK [next week]. BY THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL."

But keep in mind that nearly every AFD out of Texas this morning talked about how the medium-range forecasts were in complete disagreement with each other and that the forecasts for next week had low confidence.

I would be very skeptical of any forecast for next week from anyone (outside of our own Jeff or Air Force Met ) due to the significant model discrepancies.

Very true. The big question is will a trough/cutoff low remain over the SW. HGX seems to think the flow will go zonal, after all, it hasn't changed in forever it seems.

From what I see, it probably won't be next week but maybe the week after (or even after that) before things really change. We'll see, we were teased back in December and it turned out to be a bunch of nothing.

Yes indeed ... we were teased back in December and we all ended up disappointed. Hope that's not the case next week and beyond. A little winter for a few weeks would be nice before spring sets in.

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, a front is nearly stalling over southern Florida. It is rather cloudy here right now. However, areas from Stuart northward have sunnier conditions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

It is amazing how the pattern in southern Florida is almost summerlike now.

[JBG]

Is this alternation between zonal and troughy typical of La Nina?