Is a major change in the works? (Winter Weather Pattern)

cctxhurricanewatcher · #1 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 11:01 am

From JB's column this AM

He thinks the core of Siberian will build into Alaska and start a treck into the lower 48 starting next week.

Is this what we need for major Arctic attack into Texas? And are any of you Pro Mets seeing this in the ensembles?

boca · #2 Postby **boca** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:41 pm

Does he say how cold it will be over in your area?

wxmann_91 · #3 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 4:51 pm

I just don't think so. We are in this La Nina pattern and unless it breaks down I don't see how that happens. NAO should remain positive.

Personally, I rather track severe weather than a huge East Coast/Midwest blizzard anyday. :cheesy:

Tyler · #4 Postby **Tyler** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:00 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I just don't think so. We are in this La Nina pattern and unless it breaks down I don't see how that happens. NAO should remain positive.

That doesn't make any since. Just becuase we are in a La Nina doesn't mean we can't get a -NAO. La nina's are known for its cold endings. And besides, the NAO is forecast to become negative sometime beggining next month. We just need the pacific jet to calm down, but I don't know about that. The polar vortex is finally starting to move out of Greenland and should move into a favorable position, and cold air continues to build in Alaska. Winter is certainly not over. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

Burn1 · #5 Postby **Burn1** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:28 pm

There is a better that even chance for above average temps for most of the U.S. through Feb.....Upper Midwest and Northeast look to have the better chance for colder temps....I am in the south and love to see Arctic
Outbreaks so this winter is a little disappointing for that so far?

millerblizzard1 · #6 Postby **millerblizzard1** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:43 pm

Better than even chance. What do you base that on? Not being disagreeable or trying to start flaming. Just curious.

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:50 pm

Burn1 wrote:There is a better that even chance for above average temps for most of the U.S. through Feb.....Upper Midwest and Northeast look to have the better chance for colder temps....I am in the south and love to see Arctic
Outbreaks so this winter is a little disappointing for that so far?

if that is based on the SPC, well they are usually always wrong. The seasonal graphics are some of the most pathetic seasonal graphics that can be found. I have never seen those things be 100% right, and they are not forecasts...just "probabilities". For instance...the light orange shading means that there is a 33% chance of above normal temps...if you do the math that leaves you with a 77% chance of normal or below. I wouldn't bet money on any of those predictions.

WaitingForSiren · #8 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 11:37 pm

you mean the CPC? Haha, i was about to say, SPC is always wrong too=p. Always overforecasting severe weather or underforecasting it.

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 12:30 am

WaitingForSiren wrote:you mean the CPC? Haha, i was about to say, SPC is always wrong too=p. Always overforecasting severe weather or underforecasting it.

haha. yes that is what I meant...CPC...I must have written that after looking at the SPC products for severe weather. I guess I was still focusing on severe weather and trying to post about something else at the same time. :lol:

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:18 am

I'd love for JB to be right, I'm just not holding my breath.

WaitingForSiren · #11 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:40 am

Theres times when SPC issues forecasts so horrible I really feel like sending them an email or something to tell them to GET OFF DAT REEFER! lol.

Anyway,. yeah I agree CPC issues nothing but crap forecasts. their short range forecasts are okay, but the long range seasonal products are next to worthless.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:58 am

WaitingForSiren wrote:Theres times when SPC issues forecasts so horrible I really feel like sending them an email or something to tell them to GET OFF DAT REEFER! lol.

Anyway,. yeah I agree CPC issues nothing but crap forecasts. their short range forecasts are okay, but the long range seasonal products are next to worthless.

Yeah, if they can't even get a 7-day forecast right, then how are thier predictions for a month out right? or 6 months out? I mean why even make the maps? They are really no better than a guess. Originally this winter they issued a probability map of a very wet winter right over the areas that are now in drought and suffering from fires. they were WAY off. This also makes me wonder about things like global warming. They are "predicting" that it will be 10 degrees warmer in 100 years using the same concepts that the CPC uses for a probability map 3 months out...and if we can't get it right in the short term, then how will we get it right for 100 years out? lol.

Is a major change in the works? (Winter Weather Pattern)

Is a major change in the works? (Winter Weather Pattern)

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