Any signs of a pattern change?

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's been almost a month since true bitter cold came over the US. Any signs of it returning in the next few weeks? I'm surprised at how long most of us have seen normal or above normal Winter temperatures.

[Brent]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

Also: the AO is also trending towards negative...another sign that cold is coming in 1-3 weeks.

[Brent]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

well this time the cold air IS actually spilling into Alaska, and the poles have warmed (which actually means that it will get colder for us...see some of the other threads for more on this). The ensembles show a negative NAO and a negative AO in 15 days or less. Even Air Force Met is beginning to say that a colder pattern is Possible around the end of January and the beginning of February. He even said that it may resemble Feb. 1989...which hosted a nice arctic outbreak capable of 4 days of sub-freezing highs here in Houston. Winter is not over yet...and this is not just my opinion...but the opinion of many others as well as many pro mets I have either read posts from, or have accessed articles/posts from others sights from. No surprise here, but JB is also predicting a colder pattern. We are not even half way done with winter, so spring is in no way starting yet.

[Tyler]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

What is getting pushed back later and later? For many, many weeks I have heard that we will be in for a pattern change to much colder weather in February, nothing has changed...

Also, you do realize we still have half of winter left, right? Such an extreme warm pattern like we are in now cannot last very much longer without it collapsing upon itself. Feb 1989 is an interesting analog that was mentioned by a pro met on here. January 1989 was an extremely warm January accross much of the US. However, the pattern changed dramatically in Feb 1989, allowing bitterly cold arctic shots to enter into the midwest, and filter down into the south. We even had several days below freezing here in Houston!! It will be interesting to see if Jan/Feb 2006 takes the 1989 path.

[jkt21787]

I agree with a cold pattern developing towards the beginning of Feb. Not sure how big and how long it lasts, but I think it will be enough to get at least much of the Eastern United States (East of the Rockies) below normal.

[sphinx]

So ... our best hope for a big snow this winter is the Law of Averages.

Low-resolution GFS ensembles may be showing a pattern change. But the ensemble of operational GFS runs has been lacking fantasy storms (east coast snow storms in the 10-16 day time region). for the last few weeks.

Yes I expect the pattern to change, and yes I expect a lot of people to claim they forecast the pattern change, but the skeptic in me believes these prognosticators are simply predicting that the coin will finally turn up heads.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I have no doubts that cold air is coming, but, it's been "missing," for some time. One thing we definitely want, down here, in New Orleans, is for the cold air to be gone by Mardi Gras, which is at the end of February. We don't like cold Mardi Gras'. I'm 100% sure that Winter isn't over...I know it is going to come back. But, the longer it gets delayed, the more we worry about it spilling into our parades, which makes for an unpleasant experience when you are grilling chicken & boiling crawfish on the median and trying to catch beads and fun with friends and family!!

[mike815]

i doubt its comming also running out of time this is bad for the upcomming hurr season with just these cold snaps

[kenl01]

Yes there is hint of a possible pattern change in about 10 days. Euro by 1/24 indicates heights rising overt the poles, ridging increasing towards Greenland, and also some indication of a +PNA ridge in the west Canada starting to appear. Note the trough building into the Plains..........

I'd say late January/early February the opportunities look better for a cold pattern returning. I can't paste the 10 day Euro here right now, but if it means anything, 6z GFS at 384hrs looks interesting with strong amplification - ridge into west Canada, huge trough downstream:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif

[Brent]

What is getting pushed back later and later? For many, many weeks I have heard that we will be in for a pattern change to much colder weather in February, nothing has changed...

Oh I remember this board being filled with threads about the cold snap coming back this week(AKA Mid January), and then I remember it was around the 20th and now it's the beginning of February.

I do agree, it will turn colder, I just don't think it's going to be THAT cold considering it's the middle of winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is getting pushed back later and later? For many, many weeks I have heard that we will be in for a pattern change to much colder weather in February, nothing has changed...

Oh I remember this board being filled with threads about the cold snap coming back this week(AKA Mid January), and then I remember it was around the 20th and now it's the beginning of February.

I do agree, it will turn colder, I just don't think it's going to be THAT cold considering it's the middle of winter.

well it will get colder the middle of this week (coldest since before christmas). The high will struggle to 50 on Tuesday...but as for VERY cold..it looks like late Jan. early Feb....and yes, considering it is the middle of the winter..the cold in late Jan. COULD be extreme. You need to remember that Houston's largest snowfalls and most frequent snowfalls have occured in February. Back in the 30s it even snowed in March! Winter is not over until the calendar hits March 21st.

[Air Force Met]

It's starting to get pretty cold in Alaska...

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.html

Compare that with 12 hours ago...

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_temp_na.html

It's been as cold as -45F this morning at Chandalar Lake...

[zoeyann]

I was curios if the temputure drop in Alaska has anything to do with the volcanic ash? Thanks in advance.

[jasons2k]

What is getting pushed back later and later? For many, many weeks I have heard that we will be in for a pattern change to much colder weather in February, nothing has changed...

Oh I remember this board being filled with threads about the cold snap coming back this week(AKA Mid January), and then I remember it was around the 20th and now it's the beginning of February.

I do agree, it will turn colder, I just don't think it's going to be THAT cold considering it's the middle of winter.

My sentiments as well. We might have to coldest outbreak of the winter still ahead of us but nothing extreme or record-breaking.

[jasons2k]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

well this time the cold air IS actually spilling into Alaska, and the poles have warmed (which actually means that it will get colder for us...see some of the other threads for more on this). The ensembles show a negative NAO and a negative AO in 15 days or less. Even Air Force Met is beginning to say that a colder pattern is Possible around the end of January and the beginning of February. He even said that it may resemble Feb. 1989...which hosted a nice arctic outbreak capable of 4 days of sub-freezing highs here in Houston. Winter is not over yet...and this is not just my opinion...but the opinion of many others as well as many pro mets I have either read posts from, or have accessed articles/posts from others sights from. No surprise here, but JB is also predicting a colder pattern. We are not even half way done with winter, so spring is in no way starting yet.

Actually, winter is over 1/2 done for Houston depsite the "Official" start date being Dec. 21st. That's just a date on a calendar. From purely a meteo. standpoint, the 3 coldest months of the year are Dec/Jan/Feb. The curve bottoms out in Houston the 1st 2 weeks of January and from here on out the averages begin to rise. The first full degree rise occurs 1/21 when the avg. high rises from 62 to 63. The average date of our last freeze is Feb. 25th - almost a full month before the "official" end of winter. So take using the solstice/equinox method to define the seasons with a grain of salt....they are really behind 3-4 weeks of what the weather is actually doing in most cases. Heck - even west Texas has their summer peaks in JUNE, right at the start of summer, and most places peak in July, right at the true heart of summer. Using the solstice method, you would expect summer to peak in late August but that's just not the case.

PS - even your pal JB agrees with me on this one. He has said in his column many times over the years the seasons would more accurately reflect the weather if they were broken into 3 calendar months (e.g., Winter = Dec/Jan/Feb; Spring = Mar/Apr/May, etc.) rather than the solstice/equinox system we blindly accept today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

well this time the cold air IS actually spilling into Alaska, and the poles have warmed (which actually means that it will get colder for us...see some of the other threads for more on this). The ensembles show a negative NAO and a negative AO in 15 days or less. Even Air Force Met is beginning to say that a colder pattern is Possible around the end of January and the beginning of February. He even said that it may resemble Feb. 1989...which hosted a nice arctic outbreak capable of 4 days of sub-freezing highs here in Houston. Winter is not over yet...and this is not just my opinion...but the opinion of many others as well as many pro mets I have either read posts from, or have accessed articles/posts from others sights from. No surprise here, but JB is also predicting a colder pattern. We are not even half way done with winter, so spring is in no way starting yet.

Actually, winter is over 1/2 done for Houston depsite the "Official" start date being Dec. 21st. That's just a date on a calendar. From purely a meteo. standpoint, the 3 coldest months of the year are Dec/Jan/Feb. The curve bottoms out in Houston the 1st 2 weeks of January and from here on out the averages begin to rise. The first full degree rise occurs 1/21 when the avg. high rises from 62 to 63. The average date of our last freeze is Feb. 25th - almost a full month before the "official" end of winter. So take using the solstice/equinox method to define the seasons with a grain of salt....they are really behind 3-4 weeks of what the weather is actually doing in most cases. Heck - even west Texas has their summer peaks in JUNE, right at the start of summer, and most places peak in July, right at the true heart of summer. Using the solstice method, you would expect summer to peak in late August but that's just not the case.

PS - even your pal JB agrees with me on this one. He has said in his column many times over the years the seasons would more accurately reflect the weather if they were broken into 3 calendar months (e.g., Winter = Dec/Jan/Feb; Spring = Mar/Apr/May, etc.) rather than the solstice/equinox system we blindly accept today.

yeah, but what does that have to do with the coldest air coming in 2-3 weeks possibly? Just because you claim that winter is 1/2 over is not helping the fact that we may be downright cold by the start of February. Also, in an above post of yours, you say that nothing extreme or record breaking is coming...How do you know? We are not close enough yet to make a statement on that either way. The cold air is spilling into Alaska and all it will take for us to see some record lows or record low highs would be for that air to be sent southward into Texas...which is a real possibility. Also, though the last official freeze usually occurs on Feb. 25th...that is really just an average. We've had a freeze at IAH as late as April 13th, And we have been as low as 19-22 in March before as well (officially the coldest at IAH is 22..but Hooks has seen 20). The largest snowfalls usually occur during the last weeks of winter here in Houston...in 1895 we had a 2-3 ft. blizzard...and in 1899 we had extreme cold, enough to freeze over parts of Galveston bay! Winter is by no means done with, and in fact, I think the worst is yet to come. If AFM is right about his Feb. 1989 prediction, then we could be talking about some of the coldest air in years...and that kind of situation WOULD BE extreme and record breaking.

[jasons2k]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

well this time the cold air IS actually spilling into Alaska, and the poles have warmed (which actually means that it will get colder for us...see some of the other threads for more on this). The ensembles show a negative NAO and a negative AO in 15 days or less. Even Air Force Met is beginning to say that a colder pattern is Possible around the end of January and the beginning of February. He even said that it may resemble Feb. 1989...which hosted a nice arctic outbreak capable of 4 days of sub-freezing highs here in Houston. Winter is not over yet...and this is not just my opinion...but the opinion of many others as well as many pro mets I have either read posts from, or have accessed articles/posts from others sights from. No surprise here, but JB is also predicting a colder pattern. We are not even half way done with winter, so spring is in no way starting yet.

Actually, winter is over 1/2 done for Houston depsite the "Official" start date being Dec. 21st. That's just a date on a calendar. From purely a meteo. standpoint, the 3 coldest months of the year are Dec/Jan/Feb. The curve bottoms out in Houston the 1st 2 weeks of January and from here on out the averages begin to rise. The first full degree rise occurs 1/21 when the avg. high rises from 62 to 63. The average date of our last freeze is Feb. 25th - almost a full month before the "official" end of winter. So take using the solstice/equinox method to define the seasons with a grain of salt....they are really behind 3-4 weeks of what the weather is actually doing in most cases. Heck - even west Texas has their summer peaks in JUNE, right at the start of summer, and most places peak in July, right at the true heart of summer. Using the solstice method, you would expect summer to peak in late August but that's just not the case.

PS - even your pal JB agrees with me on this one. He has said in his column many times over the years the seasons would more accurately reflect the weather if they were broken into 3 calendar months (e.g., Winter = Dec/Jan/Feb; Spring = Mar/Apr/May, etc.) rather than the solstice/equinox system we blindly accept today.

yeah, but what does that have to do with the coldest air coming in 2-3 weeks possibly? Just because you claim that winter is 1/2 over is not helping the fact that we may be downright cold by the start of February. Also, in an above post of yours, you say that nothing extreme or record breaking is coming...How do you know? We are not close enough yet to make a statement on that either way. The cold air is spilling into Alaska and all it will take for us to see some record lows or record low highs would be for that air to be sent southward into Texas...which is a real possibility. Also, though the last official freeze usually occurs on Feb. 25th...that is really just an average. We've had a freeze at IAH as late as April 13th, And we have been as low as 19-22 in March before as well (officially the coldest at IAH is 22..but Hooks has seen 20). The largest snowfalls usually occur during the last weeks of winter here in Houston...in 1895 we had a 2-3 ft. blizzard...and in 1899 we had extreme cold, enough to freeze over parts of Galveston bay! Winter is by no means done with, and in fact, I think the worst is yet to come. If AFM is right about his Feb. 1989 prediction, then we could be talking about some of the coldest air in years...and that kind of situation WOULD BE extreme and record breaking.

Well of course any of those things could happen. I watched it snow on Easter day last year in DFW after a relatively mild winter. That's also why I said in response to Brent we still may yet have our coldest readings of the season. And yes this outbreak in a few weeks might be the one. But I don't see anything on the horizon or a setup that will bring us doom&gloom, miserable, record-breaking cold.

You have to remember a lot of these extreme events you keep referencing happen only once every 20, 50, or 100+ years. Purely from a statistical standpoint the odds of something like that happening are pretty darn slim. If you keep thinking every 2 or 3 weeks something like that is going to happen, you're going to be wrong most of the time. Sorry, but that's the truth. It would take something very unusual to happen, for example, for a repeat of last year's TX snowstorm so soon.

If I see -50F in Alaska AND a McFarland Block AND the polar vortex diving south, etc,. then I might be worried. But not yet...just because it hit -40 in Alaska doesn't mean Galveston Bay is about the freeze over.

[Brent]

My sentiments as well. We might have to coldest outbreak of the winter still ahead of us but nothing extreme or record-breaking.

That's just my point. I remember posts here saying there would be a massive cold outbreak comparable to 1985 or 1989. What a bunch of nonsense that turned out to be...