January 14-15 Snowfall: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Interior sections, particularly across central and upstate New York, northern New England, and the Ohio Valley have the greatest chance at seeing an appreciable and possibly significant snowfall. I do believe that the rain will end as snow in the big cities from Washington, D.C. to Boston where modest accumulations are likely. There remains the chance that several inches could accumulate in either of the big cities.

Given its consistency with its ensembles and reasonable run-to-run continuity, I have given greater weight to the GFS. The NAM is given some consideration.

My Initial Snowfall Estimates are:

Albany: 2"-5"
Baltimore: 2" or less
Boston: 1" or less
Burlington: 4"-8"
Caribou: 3"-7"
Hartford: 1"-3"
New York City: 2" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Philadelphia: 1"-2"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"
Providence: 2" or less
Washington, DC: 2" or less

[donsutherland1]

At 5 pm, a MOS-busting cold air mass was charging southeastward. Rain had changed to snow in Burlington and a rain-snow mix was falling just outside Washington, D.C. at IAD. At Harrisburg, the temperature stood at 36°, which was 6° below the MOS projection of 42° for 1/15 0z.

At this time, my snowfall estimates remain quite reasonable. The only changes I'll make is to tweak Boston to 2" or less rather than 1" or less and Philadelphia to 1"-3" (as opposed to 1"-2"). There is some chance that the big cities, particularly Philadelphia might pick up just a little more snow than I have highlighted. My forecast for Pittsburgh, which picked up a trace of snow, may prove too high.

My Final Snowfall Estimates are:

Albany: 2"-5"
Baltimore: 2" or less
Boston: 2" or less
Burlington: 4"-8"
Caribou: 3"-7"
Hartford: 1"-3"
New York City: 2" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"
Providence: 2" or less
Washington, DC: 2" or less

[WindRunner]

Well, it looks like your DC call came good, with snow falling at both IAD and DCA. Of course, nothing stuck, but still a snowfall that none of the DC local mets even mentioned.

[mike815]

very tru something at least

[Tri-State_1925]

It's snowing here pretty good this morning...roads covered; grass almost covered completely. I just got report that it's really coming down in WMass. They just forecast on TV for 6 inches for this area today and 8-12 for all of WMass. Pretty astounding change forecast in less than 24 hours. Boston TV mets weren't predicting totals anywhere near that yesterday, including last night from what I saw. NWS still calling this morning for no more than 6 inches in the Berkshires...

[wxwatcher91]

well my measurements are all over the place here in Keene... anywhere from 6" to 14"... very VERY windy last night. many banches are down... power flickered a few times last night.

snow is coming down vertical sometimes horizontal sometimes at a light rate... forecast is for another inch before its over.

wind reports from the Keene Airport:
15 07:15 N 26 G 35
15 06:55 N 23 G 31
15 06:35 N 20 G 28
15 06:15 N 18 G 36
15 05:55 N 30 G 43
15 05:35 N 23 G 43
15 05:15 N 30 G 41

[Tri-State_1925]

whoa, that's impressive. I'm guessing we didn't get a changeover to snow until 3 or 4AM this morning.

You can see the strongest radar echos this morning really starting to define where the highest terrain is...

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From January 13, 2006 3:30 pm:

Albany: 2"-5"; Actual: 4.0"; Within range
Baltimore: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Boston: 1" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Burlington: 4"-8"; Actual: 2.7"; Error: 1.3"
Caribou: 3"-7"; Actual: 3.2"; Within range
Hartford: 1"-3"; Actual: 3.1"; Error: 0.1"
New York City: 2" or less; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
Newark: 2" or less; Actual: 2.6"; Error: 2.6"
Philadelphia: 1"-2"; Actual: 0.4"; Error: 0.6"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace: Error: 1.0"
Providence: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Washington, DC: 2" or less; Actual: No accumulation; Within range

From January 14, 2006 5:30 pm:

Albany: 2"-5"; Actual: 4.0"; Within range
Baltimore: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Boston: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Burlington: 4"-8"; Actual: 2.7"; Error: 1.3"
Caribou: 3"-7"; Actual: 3.2"; Within range
Hartford: 1"-3"; Actual: 3.1"; Error: 0.1"
New York City: 2" or less; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
Newark: 2" or less; Actual: 2.6"; Error: 2.6"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"; Actual: 0.4"; Error: 0.6"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace: Error: 1.0"
Providence: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Washington, DC: 2" or less; Actual: No accumulation; Within range

[Stephanie]

I guessed about an inch of actual snow in my backyard, but it could've been more due to the blowing a drifting. Saturday night was WILD!!

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

I agree. Near where I live along the Long Island Sound, winds gusted past 60 mph. Nearby HPN picked up a gust of 62 mph.

[Stephanie]

Did you also get sleet Don or was it all snow?

I'll bet you had some tree damage up your way as well.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

The precipitation changed from light rain to flurries. Then, after a dry slot passed through, there was some light to moderate snow. Some trees were blown down, and many branches were scattered about.