Stratosphere warming at North Pole / Cold weather coming

[Jim Hughes]

A fairly strong warming started to occur in the stratosphere, at the north pole the past few days. I have previously talked about the importance of this relationship a while back. This can have an effect upon many weather and climate patterns.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

This warming always precedes a negative AO. Which then loads the dice for a negative NAO. Both the length and intensity of this warming can be indicative of the severity of the upcoming cold spell.



Jim

[x-y-no]

That agrees with what Don wrote about the NAO below.

Thanks for the information, Jim. That use of the stratospheric temperature as a leading indicator for the AO and NAO looks intriguing.

[terstorm1012]

Thanks Jim. Was starting to get used to this springlike weather.

*goes to put the warm weather clothes away.* Darn.

I need to move to Florida.

[Jim Hughes]

That agrees with what Don wrote about the NAO below.

Thanks for the information, Jim. That use of the stratospheric temperature as a leading indicator for the AO and NAO looks intriguing.

This forecasting tool is used by the experts as well. A local Washington DC weather site mentioned that the CPC also spoke about the possible importance of this warming. I checked it out.

Scroll down to Wednesday 18th-22nd

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... reats.html



Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Thanks Jim. Was starting to get used to this springlike weather.

*goes to put the warm weather clothes away.* Darn.

I need to move to Florida.

I can take a day or two of the warmth but I love the winter. I could not live in an area where the climate never changed throughout the year.


Jim

[x-y-no]

Thanks Jim. Was starting to get used to this springlike weather.

*goes to put the warm weather clothes away.* Darn.

I need to move to Florida.

I can take a day or two of the warmth but I love the winter. I could not live in an area where the climate never changed throughout the year.


Jim

Hey ... we have seasons ...

Warm and dry, and really warm and wet!

[wxcrazytwo]

Very well, Jim. I wonder what this means for Florida?

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, I thought FL had THREE seasons-warm and dry, really warm and wet and hurricane.

Steve

[Cookiely]

Actually, I thought FL had THREE seasons-warm and dry, really warm and wet and hurricane.

Steve

There are two trees on our block which just this week started changing the colors of the leaves. They are so beautiful. One of them is a gorgeous red color.

[Jim Hughes]

Very well, Jim. I wonder what this means for Florida?

Hard to say. Florida's a long way south. I think it's possible that the northern parts could see some cooler weather. The lag time effect for the atmospheric pattern change can be anywhere from 2-3 weeks. With the later being the most consistent at this time of the year.

So I would expect to see a cold pattern develop by late January or early February. This warming is only four days old though so lets see if this continues. That's the big key. I have seen much stronger warmings. But this sudden warming is the best so far this winter.



Jim