How can you read the NCEP ensembles?

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 12:11 pm

Hey all ... as we search the computer modeling for a hook on which we can hang our Winter Cap, we've all been looking at the NCEP Ensembles. I need some help in understanding how to read them.

Don't the colors suggest how much agreement occurs within the model run spread? Doesn't blue mean full agreement and brown/red mean a lot of disagreement? Any primers out there on how to read NCEP Ensembles correctly?

Muchas gracias in advance ...

#2 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:22 pm

go ahead and post a image of an hour and i will help ya read it

#3 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 1:37 pm

Not sure how to post images ... here is the link:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10912.html

What about the 120 hr ensemble at this link?

#4 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 2:47 pm

all of the green/blue are where there is agreement...all of the RED/ORANGE there is DISSagreement.

#5 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 3:43 pm

deltadog03 wrote:all of the green/blue are where there is agreement...all of the RED/ORANGE there is DISSagreement.

That much I know already!

Does the red mean there is greater disagreement in that area as compared to an orange? Does the level of "blueness" convey the amount of agreement?

#6 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:03 pm

oh, sorry...yeah, the deeper the colors the more variation the model is seeing. DEEP red would mean some really dissagreeing stuff....i hope that helps..let me know

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jan 09, 2006 4:05 pm

deltadog03 wrote:oh, sorry...yeah, the deeper the colors the more variation the model is seeing. DEEP red would mean some really dissagreeing stuff....i hope that helps..let me know

It does indeed! Thank you, kindly!

How can you read the NCEP ensembles?

How can you read the NCEP ensembles?

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