0z GFS VERY intresting

[Donwx]

The latest 0z model run of the GFS has 0c temps all the way to the coast of Texas. And it shows a lot of frozen precip in the South!!!










http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_324s.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_348s.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_360s.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_372s.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, very interesting. Accuweather long-range forecasts now indicate some very cold weather starting Jan. 17th. In fact the 18th should be bitter with a high in the lower 50s and a low in the upper 20s and 40mph wind gusts! The good news will be the return of the moisture that is expected and some rain/snow/ice may be. Lets hope this plays out!

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, just checked the "precip. type map" on accuweather professional GFS page...and it is bringing the snow/sleet all the way to Houston for the entire day of the 19th. This could get interesting.

[Air Force Met]

06Z Run now backing WAY off on the cold air. 0C line at TX/OK border instead of on the coast albeit 6 hrs earlier...which means 0C line would be somewhere south of Dallas.

Again...this far out...through some chicken bones on the floor and you will results that are about the same.

Hey Extremeweatherguy....didn't see if you posted a link for the GFS maps that show the frozen/ice in purple and snow in blue. PLease post so I can see them. If it is on Accuwx...you can PM me...I have a subscription.

[gboudx]

At this point, I don't mind discussing a 1.5-2 week GFS solution that shows a break from the warm and dry weather. The GFS has shown stuff like that in the past, only to lose it in later runs. Oh well, we can hope right?

[Kennethb]

One day the long range GFS will pan out.

But maybe all of the cold will wait until February, historically the best month for cold and wintry precip.

[Kelarie]

Hey I am just excited that, at least in Austin, they have put a chance (however slight) for rain/drizzle.

I nearly fell out of my seat with joy.

[jeff]

The GFS has been hinting toward colder weather for several days now. Although not to the degree of the latest runs. Consistency in the GFS in the longer range is at times a good sign as it was the model of choice after the busted pre-Christmas event when the EURO failed us.

Tossing all the guidance out the window, one must expect a swing in the opposite direction given the incredible warmth that has happened and that is expected this next week. We are not done with winter just like we are not done with hurricane season on August 1st. Winter will return and I would not be the least surprised if some records fell on the other end of the spectrum. Not only temp wise, but someday will willmake up the ever growing rainfall deficit. More and likely it will all fall in 12-24 hours causing a flood. The weather a trends toward the extremes with droughts followed by floods and cold followed by heat, although lately the extremes have been quite astounding at least in my book: 2004 snow along the TX coast, 27 named storms hurricane season, Katrina, Rita, drought, fires. Yes it has happened before, but has it happened in such quick succession with so many extreme events so close together?? Alright I am done.

[Portastorm]

06Z Run now backing WAY off on the cold air. 0C line at TX/OK border instead of on the coast albeit 6 hrs earlier...which means 0C line would be somewhere south of Dallas.

Again...this far out...through some chicken bones on the floor and you will results that are about the same.

Hey Extremeweatherguy....didn't see if you posted a link for the GFS maps that show the frozen/ice in purple and snow in blue. PLease post so I can see them. If it is on Accuwx...you can PM me...I have a subscription.

You always have to be the voice of reason, don't you Air Force Met?! Dang it! Next thing I know, you'll be telling me that Vince Young is going pro. Oh wait, I'll save that for the sports forum.

We're all struggling for hope that some semblance of winter will return. Until there is some consistency in these models, I think the smart money is on "above normal and drought." What is that saying the NWS guys use, "the trend is your friend."

What I wouldn't give right now for one of those slow-moving, cut-off lows coming in from the southwest ...

[LaBreeze]

Interesting to see if this pans out. These roller coaster temps are not doing any good for my cold. Yuk!

[Extremeweatherguy]

06Z Run now backing WAY off on the cold air. 0C line at TX/OK border instead of on the coast albeit 6 hrs earlier...which means 0C line would be somewhere south of Dallas.

Again...this far out...through some chicken bones on the floor and you will results that are about the same.

Hey Extremeweatherguy....didn't see if you posted a link for the GFS maps that show the frozen/ice in purple and snow in blue. PLease post so I can see them. If it is on Accuwx...you can PM me...I have a subscription.

I posted about this on the "Question about the GFS" thread.

[jasons2k]

Well, this AM was quite chilly enough for me, and this afternoon should be beautiful (altho 61 is a little chilly for me).

We should be thankful for what we have. There are a lot of places in the world where the weather is downright awful today.

[Air Force Met]

I posted about this on the "Question about the GFS" thread.

Got it..thanks.

[Stephanie]

I DO HOPE that at least the moisture pans out for you in OK/TX.

[millerblizzard1]

Tom Skilling of WGN weather blog was commenting about some other long term weather forecast models ([http://wgntv.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/] are hinting at just what the GFS is talking about, a rebound to early December weather east of the Rockies.

[Extremeweatherguy]

accuweather forecasts still have the long range quite cold for Houston. Looks like the cold will begin the 16th or 17th and then it will steadily get colder. There is also a forecast of lots of wind and clouds and moisture during this time frame, and with lows in the 20s...snow and ice may be a REAL threat. I HOPE that this does play out. We will probably know by late next week if we need to start really worrying.

[plainsman]

hey don,, do u expect another blue norther to dip into Texas on the 16th... accu has been hinting on a snow sleet ice storm for the south plains.. from just south of Dallas/fortworth to okc and tulsa amarillo to lubbock and abilene and wichita ks... possible to sa and austin even houston maybe... accu nailed the last major snow/sleet ice event for the south plains in early december.. do u think this will ba a repeat of that?, fade out? or have more wintry precipitation?

[Tyler]

The GFS has been hinting toward colder weather for several days now. Although not to the degree of the latest runs. Consistency in the GFS in the longer range is at times a good sign as it was the model of choice after the busted pre-Christmas event when the EURO failed us.

Tossing all the guidance out the window, one must expect a swing in the opposite direction given the incredible warmth that has happened and that is expected this next week. We are not done with winter just like we are not done with hurricane season on August 1st. Winter will return and I would not be the least surprised if some records fell on the other end of the spectrum. Not only temp wise, but someday will willmake up the ever growing rainfall deficit. More and likely it will all fall in 12-24 hours causing a flood. The weather a trends toward the extremes with droughts followed by floods and cold followed by heat, although lately the extremes have been quite astounding at least in my book: 2004 snow along the TX coast, 27 named storms hurricane season, Katrina, Rita, drought, fires. Yes it has happened before, but has it happened in such quick succession with so many extreme events so close together?? Alright I am done.

Otherwise known as the "rubber band effect". I sure hope this current string of warm temperatures ends. Last December's highs in the 30's and 40's were nice. I hope we have at least one more shot of winter weather! This pattern of warm and dry weather can't last for the rest of the winter. At some point in time, it will collapse. When that happens is anybody's guess. I hope soon though. The drought situation is out of hand.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS has been hinting toward colder weather for several days now. Although not to the degree of the latest runs. Consistency in the GFS in the longer range is at times a good sign as it was the model of choice after the busted pre-Christmas event when the EURO failed us.

Tossing all the guidance out the window, one must expect a swing in the opposite direction given the incredible warmth that has happened and that is expected this next week. We are not done with winter just like we are not done with hurricane season on August 1st. Winter will return and I would not be the least surprised if some records fell on the other end of the spectrum. Not only temp wise, but someday will willmake up the ever growing rainfall deficit. More and likely it will all fall in 12-24 hours causing a flood. The weather a trends toward the extremes with droughts followed by floods and cold followed by heat, although lately the extremes have been quite astounding at least in my book: 2004 snow along the TX coast, 27 named storms hurricane season, Katrina, Rita, drought, fires. Yes it has happened before, but has it happened in such quick succession with so many extreme events so close together?? Alright I am done.

Otherwise known as the "rubber band effect". I sure hope this current string of warm temperatures ends. Last December's highs in the 30's and 40's were nice. I hope we have at least one more shot of winter weather! This pattern of warm and dry weather can't last for the rest of the winter. At some point in time, it will collapse. When that happens is anybody's guess. I hope soon though. The drought situation is out of hand.

Yes it is. The good news is that for most of next week...the NWS has issued a 20% chance of rain for Houston with temps. primarily in the 60s with clouds. This is the first rain chance in awhile and I hope we see something...even if its just a little bit. Also, a prolonged period of highs back below 70 will be nice too.

[Yankeegirl]

All I want for my birthday is Snow! My birthday is the 19th of Jan... Everyone keep their fingers crossed!!!!


~lisa