Wintry Precip for Pensacola area!!

[Ivanhater]

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)...EXPECT A WARMING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WIND. THIS OUT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT STILL ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACK WELL NORTH AND THE AIRMASS HERE REMAINS
MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DIVES DOWN OVER THE REGION.
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST A SOLID MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...
AND COUPLED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A WINTERY MIX AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ON TAP INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING INLAND
LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
39/DARBE

[AL Chili Pepper]

[Ivanhater]

i hope this verifies!!!

[JenyEliza]

Snow in Savannah, GA?

[Ivanhater]

Snow in Savannah, GA?

its showing rain in savannah

[JenyEliza]

Snow in Savannah, GA?

its showing rain in savannah

According to the key it's showing snow (in blue).

[Brent]

There's a blue area near Savannah...

I'll believe it when I see it.

[Ivanhater]

Snow in Savannah, GA?

its showing rain in savannah

According to the key it's showing snow (in blue).

hmm, i see green for the entire coast of Georgia

[Air Force Met]

Snow in Savannah, GA?

its showing rain in savannah

According to the key it's showing snow (in blue).

hmm, i see green for the entire coast of Georgia

I don't either. Nothing but green on the entire coast for that time period. The forecast is calling for lows above freezing as well.

Edit...I see it now on the 12z run.

Still...lows from the local office are above freezing with partly cloudy and mostly clear skies forcast...so no precip.

If there WAS clouds so as to produce precip...you can count on the lows not being that low.

[Ivanhater]

for Pensacola or savannah?

[Ivanhater]

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS ADVERTISING ROCKIES
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENN/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS AND POINTS
EAST...SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT....AND EXITING MARINE SECTIONS OF THE FA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z. THE ENERGY OFF THE WEST COAST...AT THIS TIME...PASSES EAST
OF THE US ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS FL.
ETA IS SLOWER AND A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM...RESULTING SOME INTERESTING DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY. THE STRONGER COLD PUSH OF THE GFS RESULTS IN MORE COLD SURGE
PRECIP...ALONG WITH COLDER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
SURFACE TEMPS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS
AT NOONTIME FRIDAY ARE ABOUT 6 DEGREES...WITH THE GFS BELOW FREEZING
AND THE ETA ABOVE. COMPARING THE SOUNDINGS...ETA SHOWS A COLD
RAIN...MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...WHILST GFS IS ENTIRELY FROZEN. THE 12Z
MEX GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...WITH LOWER POPS AM GOING TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE 12Z INTERPRETATION OF THIS AT THIS TIME...TAKING A LETS
GET A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS UNDER THE BELT APPROACH...THUS PUTTING
LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

[Ivanhater]

still possible!

LONG TERM...BY THU STRONG PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR MOVES WELL SOUTH OF
THE COAST WITH 540 THICKNESS VALUES ALIGNED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
BY 12 FRI. WITH VIGOROUS S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH LATE
THU THROUGH FRI ALONG W/ A LITTLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS A FEW SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN OR FLURRIES CANT`T RULED BE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN BEFORE MENTIONING ANYTHING FROZEN.ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LONG RANGE PROGGS DEPICT WARMER CONDITIONS RETURNING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT MAV/MEX DATA
FOR TEMPS./32

[Ivanhater]

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOPE YOU GOT OUT AND
ENJOYED TODAY...BECAUSE A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING ON THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER WINTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS OCCURS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN US AMPLIFIES AND CAUSES A DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE TROUGH
AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS ON THURSDAY IN THE 50S INLAND AND
LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT COLDER TEMPS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP
AND HELP KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS WILL PREVENT LOW
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON FRIDAY WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING TO
NEAR 530 ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SOME MOISTURE IS
SHOWN AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP...HOWEVER AN INVESTIGATION OF VERTICAL
PROFILES SHOWS LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION VALUES IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION. THUS ANY PRECIP THAT REACHES THE SFC WOULD BE DRIZZLE AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ICE PELLETS. THE MAIN STORY IS THAT FRIDAY WILL BE A
COLD AND DREARY DAY...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S DURING
THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE TAKEN A NOSE DIVE ON THE 12Z RUN WITH KGZH GOING
FROM 29 TO 21 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT`S LOW. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS INLAND DOWN
IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BUT HAVE NOT GONE THAT FAR AWAITING
CONTINUITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE INLAND
ALSO...EITHER WAY IT WILL BE COLD!! /13


its going to be close! but hey, ill take some ice pellets!

[beachbum_al]

Well if the weather turns bad let me know because we will be driving back from Naples on Friday and I would hate to hit bad weather so close to home.

[Ivanhater]

[JenyEliza]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_ptyp&hours=hr030

That one...I can *somewhat* believe, since the snow goes everywhere but where Brent and I live.

[plainsman]

it would be nice for floridians to see a flake or 2 but its not gonna happen this time.. weather channel shows a low of 42 degrees friday morning, and partly cloudy and accuweather shows 39 and partly cloudy.. Atlanta,Georgia has a slight chance of wintry precip though[ friday morning according to twc...... maybe the northern burbs of atlanta georgia...

[JenyEliza]

it would be nice for floridians to see a flake or 2 but its not gonna happen this time.. weather channel shows a low of 42 degrees friday morning, and partly cloudy and accuweather shows 39 and partly cloudy.. Atlanta,Georgia has a slight chance of wintry precip though[ friday morning according to twc...... maybe the northern burbs of atlanta georgia...

That's not what the NWS is saying....and I'm in the NW. Atlanta burbs. Nothing but cold and clouds in our forecast.

They *are* saying the farthest north counties of GA might see flurries. That's about it though.

Jen

[Brent]

Originally the NWS had flurries all the way down to the county below me(as far south as LaGrange, GA) for tonight/early tomorrow, but it's been removed. Very cold, dreary, and windy.