All hopes are gone

[azsnowman]

All hopes for ANY snow this winter is GONE......"ALL" the local mets in Phoenix are forecasting a dry, warm to even HOT remainder of winter. The attitudes on this mountain are terrible, people are grouchy, irratible even downright VIOLENT at times due to the weather, it's amazing how the weather is affecting people this winter, I have NEVER seen behavior like this before......business's that depend on snow have closed for the remainder of winter, 2 have gone out of business, unemployement figures are due out Friday for the last quarter of 2005 and I would venture to say it's up some 40% due to snowplow drivers for ADOT being layed off.

As of today, I am packing away my winter clothes, breaking out the shorts, tshirts etc....forecast highs for the next 14 days are in the 60's to uppers 70's for US here in the mountains with 80's down in the desert locals......never thought I'd live to see a snowless winter but here it is, history right before my very own eyes. Fire danger is already teetering between Moderate to "HIGH" which NEVER happens until late May early June.


God Help Us!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Here we go...........

http://www.wmicentral.com

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Weather service predicting dry winter





Special to The Independent 01/03/2006





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This Fall Season (12th driest since records began in 1898) has been dominated by a stagnant weather pattern with a dominant ridge of high pressure over much of the southwestern United States.
This stagnant weather pattern has been due, in part, to persistent tropical thunderstorm activity in the western Pacific Ocean.
Persistent thunderstorm activity in the tropical Pacific can affect the location and strength of the jet stream over the mid-latitudes, which is the steering current for storms.

With the majority of thunderstorm activity located over the western Pacific Ocean, the jet stream has been strengthened over the west and central parts of the Pacific Ocean, with a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western United States.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are below normal, and weak La Nina conditions are expected to develop over the next few months.
La Nina represents a state of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean where SSTs are 0.50C or greater below normal (i.e. colder).
The combination of enhanced thunderstorm activity in the western Pacific, along with the likely development of a weak La Nina favors less storm activity over the southern United States due to a more northerly displaced jet stream.
SSTs in the northern Atlantic Ocean, which research has shown to be correlated to drought conditions in the western United States, are currently warmer than normal. This, combined with the current conditions in the Pacific, also signals a higher likelihood of drier than normal conditions over the western United States, especially the southwest.
Current models forecast that the jet stream has strengthened to the point that it will overcome the ridge in the western United States for the short-term, with some opportunities for storms during the next week to 10 days. Based on conditions in the Pacific however, it is likely the ridge of high pressure will rebuild after this period for a return to drier than normal conditions.
Longer range forecasts for the January through March period call for much greater chances (55 percent chance) for above normal temperatures along with slightly greater chances (40 percent chance) for below normal precipitation during that same period across northern Arizona. Random chance would lead to a 33 percent chance for either above, near, or below normal conditions.
Because of the very dry fall season, and the anticipated drier than normal winter, it is unlikely that we will recover and have a normal or above normal snow season. Thus, drought conditions are expected to worsen over the next three months.
While there may be fewer opportunities for storms this season due to the conditions mentioned above, there will still be periods with colder than normal temperatures along with periods of stormy weather with accumulating precipitation. Keep up on weather conditions at http://www.weather.gov/Flagstaff.

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This story was provided by the National Weather Service - Flagstaff.

[CaptinCrunch]

I feel your pain, we here in NTX are having the same issues with brought and way above avg Temps and wildfires.

[Extremeweatherguy]

with all this wild weather going on in the world, I would not be surprised if we are facing a drastic climate change. I wonder if all the hurricanes, the drought and heat in the SW, and the wild swings of warm and cold in the plains are all a sign of things to come. I heard that if the Gulf stream does continue to slow, that we may see colder winters in the east, but that areas in the southern latitudes of the U.S. may all fall into extreme drought. I heard that a desert could eventually form from Arizona to Florida. Other areas of the country though would get much wetter and forests would be supported in once in-hospitable places. Lots of weird stuff may be coming in the next many years. I would expect more hurricanes, more drought, and for arizona more heat. On the flip side...I think the NE sees more cold and stronger storms (nor'easters). The middle area of the country will probably become a fighting ground between warm and cold. Europe will become similar to Alaska (like it would if there was not gulf stream). Just think...the UK is at the same latitude as Alaska but since the gulf stream is there it is MUCH warmer...were the gulf stream to shut down, then the UK would cool significantly. Lots to think about...whether it be global warming or eventual global cooling or even a mix of the two...I feel like something is happening and at an alarming rate.

[plainsman]

we in the southern plains feel your pain az...North Texas oklahoma southern kansas and sothern missourri have been ridicuosly mild for january.. it could easily be in the 20s and 30s with snow and ice right now in the south plains area.. instead its in the 60s and 70s.. and the long range still looks relatively warm and dry but i think things always even out with weather and i believe in march theyll be a big snow/ice event for the southern plains.. late february north texas/oklahoma usually sees a heavy wet snow... and in late february/march the south west, arizona, newmexico/panhandle of Texas can see some big snows!!! last yr. it snowed 1 foot in amarillo in the Texas panhandle in late march i remember heavy snow falling in Nm and Az as well then.. winter will come back!

[Aslkahuna]

The current season is distressingly a lot like 1999-2000 which was a dismal failure down here rainwise with barely 10% of normal rainfall for the whole December through March period with preceeded by bone dry October and November and follwed by a bone dry April and May.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Ain't THIS just PEACHY ALL time RECORD highs are forecasted for the ENTIRE week.....we COULD possibly see HIGHS in the UPPER 70's here by Friday, some 40° ABOVE normal Can SOMEONE please describe what a CLOUD looks like or what a SNOWFLAKE, RAINDROP feels like? It's been SO dam long since I've seen a CLOUD........funny thing, LAST year at THIS exact time I was whinning because I didn't see the sun for 3 weeks straight and NOW....I haven't seen a CLOUD in 79 DAYS (well, that's not true, it DID rain .03" back in early Decemeber)

Today's the day when the winter clothes go BACK into storage.......I have put the snowblower away, drained the oil in it, ran the gas out of the carb. and have brought the summer tools back out.....lawnmowers etc.


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 040941 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 240 AM MST WED JAN 4 2006 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. && .DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NORTHLAND AT THIS TIME...SAVE A SMALL AREA OF DENSE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP FOR THURSDAY. THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FOR THE WEEKEND AND FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW PASS THROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED. GRIDS AND ZONES WILL DEPICT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE.

[azsnowman]

I feel your pain, we here in NTX are having the same issues with brought and way above avg Temps and wildfires.

I know Bro.........we have it bad but you'se guys have it WORSE!!! Our wildfire season is NOW expected to go FULL BLAST here in 3 WEEKS instead of March 1st.........Apache Sitgraves National Forest officals have put a ad on the radio encouraging EVERYONE who is intersted in becoming a wildland fire fighter to stop by their office this week and next as the hiring process starts MONDAY!!

Dennis

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Arizona= Winter cancel too.

[Air Force Met]

I know Bro.........we have it bad but you'se guys have it WORSE!!! Our wildfire season is NOW expected to go FULL BLAST here in 3 WEEKS instead of March 1st.........Apache Sitgraves National Forest officals have put a ad on the radio encouraging EVERYONE who is intersted in becoming a wildland fire fighter to stop by their office this week and next as the hiring process starts MONDAY!!

Dennis

I know it's far out there...but the ensembles put a massive storm through you guys in 300 hours+. Looks like a big cutoff that hangs around a while. Would be nice for you all if it verified.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10412.html

[azsnowman]

I know Bro.........we have it bad but you'se guys have it WORSE!!! Our wildfire season is NOW expected to go FULL BLAST here in 3 WEEKS instead of March 1st.........Apache Sitgraves National Forest officals have put a ad on the radio encouraging EVERYONE who is intersted in becoming a wildland fire fighter to stop by their office this week and next as the hiring process starts MONDAY!!

Dennis

I know it's far out there...but the ensembles put a massive storm through you guys in 300 hours+. Looks like a big cutoff that hangs around a while. Would be nice for you all if it verified.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10412.html

Funny you should bring this up........."if and I do mean IF" this verifies, this would be the EXACT and I do mean "EXACT" timing of the 1966 storm......it was and still remains the largest, most fierce system the White Mountains has ever experienced. 16 January 1966....over 79" fell in a 96 hour period with 120-134" drifts, we were litterally snowed in for 10 days, there was no BIG equipment in the area to handle snowfall like this......I was only 8 years old at that time but I can remember D9 Catepillars used to clear the streets, snow was piled in the middle of the street over 15' high, snowmobiles were the ONLY mode of transportation for 18 days until we out in the sticks were rescued!! I can ONLY dream of a snowfall like that!! The snow remained in the high country till the FOLLOWING summer, not the following summer, June 1966, it remained on the ground until June 1967

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

One has to be a strong believer in the Tooth Fairy (or smoking some serious s**t) to take the 300 hr GFS at face value in this part of the World.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

The system shown late in the GFS run is one that can bring significant rain to most of AZ (but a dryslot to SE AZ), but it's much too early to even think about it. That said, remember that I have been saying since early December that expect a rainy period of sorts in the mid to late January through early March timeframe.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Tis a WONDERFUL Summer day here in Northern Az..........and it ONLY gets BETTER

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

.DISCUSSION... CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS. SOME BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY...WITH A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS SEEING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FRIDAY APPEARS AS THOUGH IT MAY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD REACH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CURRENT RECORDS.

[azsnowman]

And now we have THIS.........as it states in this article, it's OVER for all intents and purposes, a snowless winter, who would have EVER dreamed it would have happened?

I put ALL my winter clothes away yesterday, I had the irrigations system running on the lawn, it's GROWING and so are the FLOWERS for Crips sake, unfriggin real I'm telling ya!

http://www.azcentral.com

Warm 'n' dry likely to stay awhile

John Faherty
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 5, 2006 12:00 AM

If there is anything we get used to here in the desert, it's warm, dry weather.

But 80 degrees in January is something unusual.

An already warm and dry winter could make the record books today with a forecasted high of 79 or even 80 degrees. advertisement




And it's not just warm. Today will mark the 80th straight day with no rain, making it the fifth-longest stretch without a drop in the Valley since they started measuring rain in 1896.

While it is easy to enjoy warm and sunny afternoons, the rainless record is something to keep an eye on.

"People need to be more aware of their water consumption," said Tony Haffer, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

Haffer said we are fortunate for heavy rainfall in January and February of 2005, which returned water reservoirs in the state to healthy levels. In essence, we were in a good position to withstand a prolonged dry stretch.

Our current weather is the result of a high-pressure system that remains parked over the state.

It is effectively blocking all of the cooler and wetter weather that we usually get this time of year from coming to Arizona.

And it is not going away anytime soon.

"This is typical of what we are going to see for the remainder of the season," Haffer said. "Not necessarily these record temperatures, but certainly a warm and dry winter."

Because nothing can be done to change the weather, you might as well enjoy it.

"This is the first December and January I can remember when we could turn off the heat and open the windows and doors during the day," said Mary Westheimer, 50, of Phoenix.

"Although I'm concerned about global warming, I've got to admit I love it."

Evangelina Urias, 20, works in an industry directly affected by warm weather. She sells ice cream at a Cold Stone Creamery in Phoenix.

"It's been really busy the past week."

[azsnowman]

And now we have THIS.........as it states in this article, it's OVER for all intents and purposes, a snowless winter, who would have EVER dreamed it would have happened?

I put ALL my winter clothes away yesterday, I had the irrigations system running on the lawn, it's GROWING and so are the FLOWERS for Crips sake, unfriggin real I'm telling ya!

http://www.azcentral.com

Warm 'n' dry likely to stay awhile

John Faherty
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 5, 2006 12:00 AM

If there is anything we get used to here in the desert, it's warm, dry weather.

But 80 degrees in January is something unusual.

An already warm and dry winter could make the record books today with a forecasted high of 79 or even 80 degrees. advertisement




And it's not just warm. Today will mark the 80th straight day with no rain, making it the fifth-longest stretch without a drop in the Valley since they started measuring rain in 1896.

While it is easy to enjoy warm and sunny afternoons, the rainless record is something to keep an eye on.

"People need to be more aware of their water consumption," said Tony Haffer, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

Haffer said we are fortunate for heavy rainfall in January and February of 2005, which returned water reservoirs in the state to healthy levels. In essence, we were in a good position to withstand a prolonged dry stretch.

Our current weather is the result of a high-pressure system that remains parked over the state.

It is effectively blocking all of the cooler and wetter weather that we usually get this time of year from coming to Arizona.

And it is not going away anytime soon.

"This is typical of what we are going to see for the remainder of the season," Haffer said. "Not necessarily these record temperatures, but certainly a warm and dry winter."
Because nothing can be done to change the weather, you might as well enjoy it.

"This is the first December and January I can remember when we could turn off the heat and open the windows and doors during the day," said Mary Westheimer, 50, of Phoenix.

"Although I'm concerned about global warming, I've got to admit I love it."

Evangelina Urias, 20, works in an industry directly affected by warm weather. She sells ice cream at a Cold Stone Creamery in Phoenix.

"It's been really busy the past week."

[jasons2k]

Several weeks ago wasn't it unusually cold in Southern Arizona? I think there were freeze warnings out and many stations outside the urban core areas were below freezing. I guess that was before this pattern set in.

[azsnowman]

Several weeks ago wasn't it unusually cold in Southern Arizona? I think there were freeze warnings out and many stations outside the urban core areas were below freezing. I guess that was before this pattern set in.

You're correct.......there were NUMEROUS frost and freeze warnings, I had a record -2° on 3 December but since then, it's gotten HOT (for the season) and so dry that a spark for a car backfiring WILL start a fire!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

I can't say where, but my December Summary and outlook for the Hydrological year will be posted shortly.

Steve

[azsnowman]

This is DOWNRIGHT depressing to SAY the VERY least It's AMAZING how the weather effects one's emotions......I'm DEAD serious, I've heard people talkin in the grocery store and saying how depressed they are.........I mean, NO MOISTURE what so EVER is making people physically ILL and the news ONLY gets WORSE

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 061609 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 910 AM MST FRI JAN 6 2006 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK