January 2-4, 2006 Event: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

For me, this system is far more difficult to forecast than the most recent event. Given the wide spread in modeling in terms of qpf and boundary level temperatures, the possibility exists for some fairly large errors.

∙ There will be convective potential with this system. That could translate into some cooling of the column and enhance prospects of frozen precipitation.
∙ The NAM continues to suggest intrusion of warmer air across the Hudson Valley and New England, particularly at 800 mb to 900 mb.
∙ Through 18z, the NAM continued to trend warmer but the GFS turned colder in its last run. This suggests to me that the warming trend in the models might well be near or at an end. Some cooler solutions might evolve in future runs.
∙ There are significant differences between the outcomes on the NAM and GFS. As a result, my initial estimates will represent a compromise between the various solutions. If revisions are needed, they will be made after the January 2 0z and probably 12z runs.
∙ Also, given the wide risks, some of the areas targeted for the heaviest accumulations of snow and sleet might well be more conservative than what could occur, while those targeted for the least might be a little higher so as to provide a margin of safety should a colder solution prevail.

Consequently, just as had been the case with regard to the 12/31-1/1 system, an allowance will be made for some snowfall in New York City and Newark. The GFS suggests some backlash snows there. A small amount of snowfall will be included for Philadelphia, as well. This does not mean that accumulations are certain to occur, but does leave the door open for some minor accumulations.

Initial Estimates:
Albany: 4”-8”
Boston: 2”-5”
Hartford: 3”-7”
New York City: 1” or less
Newark: 1” or less
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less
Providence: 2”-5”
White Plains: 2” or less
Worcester: 4”-8”

[donsutherland1]

Per the 0z and 6z guidance with the 12z NAM (sans soundings, which were not yet available) in the mix, I still retain concerns about warmer air punching into the 800 mb to 900 mb boundary and possibly even into the 750 mb-800 mb layer as continues to show up on the NAM.

Although the NAM doesn't show it, the GFS continues to provide a backlash of snow with some accumulations in such cities as New York and White Plains. Actually the 6z GFS provided the potential for several inches of snow in White Plains. Hence, I'll leave in the prospect of some accumulations in PHL through HPN.

As big differences between the NAM and GFS persist--another heavyweight battle among the models so to speak--I will continue to take a compromise of sorts between the GFS and NAM ideas. I will note that I believe the NAM might be better at picking up boundary level differences but that its overall readings might be a little on the warm side.

All said, big bust potential remains. From my perspective, where the busts occur, may they occur with more snowfall than less.

Revised Estimates:
Albany: 3”-6”
Boston: 4”-8”
Hartford: 4”-8”
New York City: 1” or less
Newark: 1” or less
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less
Providence: 2”-5”
White Plains: 2” or less
Worcester: 5”-9”

All ideas will be verified at the end of the event.

[Windtalker1]

Seems a little Conservative to me. My thinking is 8-12 in Hartford and another 8-12 come Thursday.

[donsutherland1]

My final estimates for the 1/2-4 storm follow. Clearly, both the GFS and NAM have cut back somewhat on QPF. As a result, even while leaning more toward the GFS, I only tweaked some amounts. The risk of a backlash with snow has also lessened for some of the cities in which the storm will be mainly, if not wholly, a rain storm.

Final Estimates:
Albany: 3”-7”
Boston: 3”-7”
Hartford: 5”-10”
New York City: 1” or less
Newark: 1” or less
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less
Providence: 3”-7”
White Plains: 2” or less
Worcester: 5”-10”

All 3 forecasts will be verified at the end of the event.

[pawxguy]

Sitting at 32.4F. We have had sleet for the past 4 hours. Mt. Pocono has had snow during the same time period. I am also looking for some convection to help keep the temps near marginal or slightly below. Hopefully the coastal starts cranking as the GFS suggests.

[Windtalker1]

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
502 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...A DEVELOPING STORM COULD BRING A MIXTURE OF WINTER WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL REDEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY.

CTZ002>004-MAZ009-011-012-RIZ001-030615-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060103T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0001.060102T2202Z-060104T0800Z/
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0001.060103T1000Z-060104T0500Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...BLANDFORD...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
502 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO SNOW THIS EVENING.

THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHWEST
RHODE ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE IN THIS AREA.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE STORM...CAUSING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL DURING TUESDAY.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 7 TO 18 INCHES WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST TOTALS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

$$

[wxwatcher91]

what do you think for Keene??? right now the stupid sharp north cutoff is forecasted to keep us down to 4 to 6

[Windtalker1]

what do you think for Keene??? right now the stupid sharp north cutoff is forecasted to keep us down to 4 to 6

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
502 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...A DEVELOPING STORM COULD BRING A MIXTURE OF WINTER WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL REDEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY.

MAZ006-007-019-NHZ011-012-015-030615-
/O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060104T0800Z/
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...PLYMOUTH...
JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
502 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN WITH PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN
THIS AREA.

AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL
WRAP AROUND THE STORM...CAUSING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 4 INCHES TO FALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...LEAST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST AND HIGHEST ACROSS
THE MONADNOCKS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND
WALKING DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED
TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND UNTREATED
ROADWAYS WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

[pawxguy]

Concerning pressures with this east coast low...
GFS progged a 1004 up until midnight and this guy is already down to 997 and this is the primary low. Remember, the lower the presure the more convective lift which translates to lower temps from 1000mb levels on up to the crucial 850's.

[Tri-State_1925]

Looks like this is going to be an ALL SNOW event for us...light snow has been going for the past hour or so.

I can't say the same for parts of WMass points south where I have rain confirmations...and bitter people.

[New Englander]

Been snowing here in SE Mass for about 2 hours now. About half an inch on the ground so far, with the rain/snow line on the cape and off shore of the southern coast. Wbz4 at 11 has us in the 6-12" range.

[Tri-State_1925]

We had about 4 inches on the ground around 7AM, but man, my car had this drift on the trunk that was over 6 inches. I don't know what has been going on since I got to work though. At least the main roads were pretty good for driving...

[Tri-State_1925]

I think we ended up with about 6.5 inches total. Not very heavy snow fell during the day. However, I'm seeing spotter reports from just a couple miles south of 8 inches total in the morning alone. There are going to be some outrageous, false reports on this storm. No doubt about it. I'm sure the Worcester Airport will have about 12 inches.

The roads (even the worst side roads) are basically completely clear and the snow banks aren't high at all. Yet this area got 10+ inches? I don't believe it. 6.5 inches, tops.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:
January 2-3, 2006 Event

Corrected for updated figure for Hartford (BDL) and Worcester (ORH)

This event was a fairly complex as cold air was marginal (dynamics played an important role in precipitation type) and snowfall varied greatly with elevation (higher altitudes saw less opportunity for precipitation to melt from the low to mid-level warm air intrusion that occurred).

For the most part, the GFS soundings proved somewhat better than those from the NAM.

Subsequent refinements led to an improved forecast, with the exception of Boston. Boston proved to be the worst bust with a total snowfall that was approximately 3.0” outside the specified range. Albany and White Plains were less than 1” outside the range that had been specified in the final forecast.

Locations within range:
Initial estimate: 4 of 9 (44%)
Second estimate: 5 of 9 (56%)
Final estimate: 5 of 9 (56%)

Initial Estimates: From January 1, 2006 9 pm:
Albany: 4”-8”; Actual: 2.3”; Error: 1.7”
Boston: 2”-5”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0”
Hartford: 3”-7”; Actual: 12.5”; Error: 5.5”
New York City: 1” or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Newark: 1” or less; Actual: 0.1”; Within range
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Providence: 2”-5”; Actual: 3.1”; Within range
White Plains: 2” or less; Actual: 2.5” (Nearest locations: Armonk and Yonkers); Error: 0.5”
Worcester: 4”-8”; Actual: 8.2”; Error: 0.2”

From January 2, 2006 9:30 am:
Albany: 3”-6”; Actual: 2.3”; Error: 0.7”
Boston: 4”-8”; Actual: Trace; Error: 4.0”
Hartford: 4”-8”; Actual: 12.5”; Error: 4.5"
New York City: 1” or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Newark: 1” or less; Actual: 0.1”; Within range
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Providence: 2”-5”; Actual: 3.1”; Within range
White Plains: 2” or less; Actual: 2.5” (Nearest locations: Armonk and Yonkers); Error: 0.5”
Worcester: 5”-9”; Actual: 8.2”; Within range

From January 2, 2006 5:00 pm:
Albany: 3”-7”; Actual: 2.3”; Error: 0.7”
Boston: 3”-7”; Actual: Trace; Error: 3.0”
Hartford: 5”-10”; Actual: 12.5”; Error: 2.5"
New York City: 1” or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Newark: 1” or less; Actual: 0.1”; Within range
Philadelphia: 0.5” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Providence: 3”-7”; Actual: 3.1”; Within range
White Plains: 2” or less; Actual: 2.5” (Nearest locations: Armonk and Yonkers); Error: 0.5”
Worcester: 5”-10”; Actual: 8.2”; Within range

Poem for those who suffered the torture of a cold, windswept rain:

The Pain of Rain

Where the call was for snow,
And all that falls is rain,
With certainty, I know,
There is only great pain,
As torrents of tears flow,
Until the rain does wane,
And the models do show,
Snow for the coastal plain,
A 50-50 low,
And a big block to reign,
Bringing a storm of snow,
From the Southeast to Maine.

[WindRunner]

Bravo! Oh, and a pretty nice forecast, too.

[Tri-State_1925]

LOL, Worcester Airport -- 9.8 inches. Are you kidding me?

There are VERY FEW areas in this city with greater than 8 inches on the ground, and I'm including the 1.5-2 inches that were ALREADY on the ground from the event a few days ago.

The guy doing the spotting there is a disgrace to the industry. He obviously measures the biggest drift/snow bank/snow pile he can find and calls it in, because there is no other reason for these ridiculous totals he keeps getting. I've already reported him to Taunton, but I guess that didn't change things, so I'm just going to have to keep filing more complaints.

At least the local media stations are reporting 8 inches from Worcester. I think that is still off, but at least it's more reasonable than 10 inches.

It's really sad to see that our weather records are being TARNISHED by people like the one at the Worcester Airport.

[donsutherland1]

Tri-State_1925,

The figure was corrected to 8.2" from the earlier 9.8" that had been shown on a PNS in BOX's the daily summary. I've made the correction in my verification.

In my view, NWS should not accept measurements from those who repeatedly provide incorrect measurements (usually because they measure too frequently, among other reasons). I believe accurate data is more important than quatity of data, especially when it comes to climatological research.

Best wishes.