moderate winter storm for New England (1/2)-(1/3)

[wxwatcher91]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
610 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AT LOW LEVELS BUT THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ALOFT IS WHAT WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA RECEIVES A MODERATE
DUMPING OF SNOW...OR A MIXED BAG OF SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL DETERMINE THIS.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SEAS BUILDING TO
10 TO 15 FEET...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON
NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORELINES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CLIMATE...MODELS..BUOYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
924 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START OUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FROM QUEBEC. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AT
LEAST THROUGH MONDAY SO THIS WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY...AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. A LOT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD...AND EXPECT ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MAINLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SECOND LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...THEN HEADS NORTHEAST. GFS HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THIS LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN...AS
WELL AS MAKING IT A BIT DEEPER EACH TIME...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE A
PRETTY STRONG LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET JUST SOUTH OF THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY. MOST QPF WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE UPWARD TO 1.75" IS
FORECAST. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WARM AIR OVERRUNS INTO THE
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE TO CAUSE MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
THICKNESS VALUES DO SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE MENTIONED A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIP FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH
MIXED PRECIP EVENTUALLY GOING OVER TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. COULD
SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OR MIXED SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR THIS
EVENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A STATEMENT OUT FOR THIS ONE SINCE
WE HAVE A SNOW ADVISORY RIDING RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
KNOW THIS THINKING.

THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY...SO PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE LOW FINALLY
PUSHES EAST FOR A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM QUEBEC.

[Tri-State_1925]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 6&map.y=98

I'm just liking the looks of the forecast this week in general. It's good to have the cold back.

[wxwatcher91]

yes this a major improvement to the past two warm wet weeks...

I can just look at the headline on the latest forecast discussion and be content:

Issued 534 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2005)

.A week of significant wintry precipitation starts now with a substantial winter wx event probable noon Monday to noon Tuesday along with associated significant impact on travel for a ptn of sne,

this is what New England weather is supposed to be like!

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btw the NWS latest zone forecast for Cheshire County NH has "Heavy snow accumulation possible" for Monday Night which usually indicates a good size storm ahead ...and same for Worcester County MA