Wintery Precip for Texas??

[Donwx]

The GFS model has been consistent on forming a Low of the Gulf Coast in about 1 1/2 weeks from now ( Jan7-10). Now from run to run it has vary how cold the air will be behind the Low and how soon will the cold air get here and how strong the system will be. But the latest 12z run has frozen precip? wright over Houston 288 hours out. This is a long way and the GFS is in LaLa land this far out. But it has been consistent. Will just have to watch the model trends.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

GFS on LSD. If this confirms, I'll have some sort of frozen precip at my house too.

[Kelarie]

Ummm, I thought we were not going to have any more talk of wintry precip in Texas.....

[Brent]

GFS at 288 hours...

[beachbum_al]

My question is will this wintery mixture move toward me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest GFS runs are still showing a much colder period showing up as soon as late next week (and possibly continuing for most of Jan). As for wintry precip... it does not look as aggressive as earlier runs, but still shows a close call during that time period (Jan. 7th-10th). Either way, this period of 10-20 degrees above normal temp.-wise looks like it will reverse to 10-20 below normal within 2 weeks. Also, I would not be surprised to see 1-2 days of 25-35 below normal before January is out. As for wintry weather; I think January will bring many "threats", but whether or not one verifies is still something we will have to wait and see about.

[jasons2k]

it'll turn out just like the last "threat" - more of the same for SE Texas

[Air Force Met]

Wintery Weather for Tejas? Certainly not anything south of the Red River anytime soon.

[KatDaddy]

It will be in the 80s during the upcoming days. Crazy Spring weather in January. When the pattern does change, look out.

[gboudx]

Crazy Spring weather? I'd say so. I noticed green blades of grass starting to sprout in my yard.

[aggiecutter]

Atleast there is a glimmer of hope down the road.

Ensembles....

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 2_usbg.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NWS current forecast for this weekend will bust big time. They are forecasting upper 60s to near 70 (still above normal), but some of the current models support it being much colder. My call right now is for highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s. I think this will be the start to a colder pattern to end this month. I think during the last 20 days of the month we end up below normal temp. wise. Heat like we are having today and the last week or so can not stick around that long in the middle of winter. Keep in mind...the high in Houston today is about 20 degrees warmer than normal!

[plainsman]

accuweather does have snow in the forecast and much colder tempertures for the panhandle around amarillo jan.10-13 and also accuweather has ice/freezing rain at night around Dallas/ft.worth, moreso in fort worth jan.10-13.. accu is off alot but definetly colder temps and wintry precip is in store for the state starting around the 10th...

[Kennethb]

There is nothing unusual about having warm weather to welcome in the New Year down south. Many times warm temperatures in January is a signal that there is a trough in the longwave pattern, causing the ridge and zonal flow. A sudden snap to cold and wintry precip down south is common after such warm spells.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is nothing unusual about having warm weather to welcome in the New Year down south. Many times warm temperatures in January is a signal that there is a trough in the longwave pattern, causing the ridge and zonal flow. A sudden snap to cold and wintry precip down south is common after such warm spells.

and that is probably what will happen come 10-15 days out. I think we will be seeing hard freeze threats along the Gulf coast and all the way to central FL by mid to late January. Hopefully some wintry weather too!

[plainsman]

around jan.17th accu still has snow sleet freezing rain for amarillo,tx okc tulsa, ok Dallas/fort worth,tx, abilene,tx, wichita ks... they nailed the major snow/ice storm in early december in North Texas oklahoma and kansas with weird highs/lows beforehand 40/50s temps were in the 20s and low 3os but they had the wintry precip right...usually temps even out.. with way above average temps 20 to 30 degrees above normal now there should be a 20-30 degree below normal time period starting on the 17th of jan.. hopefully...

[plainsman]

around jan.17th accu still has snow sleet freezing rain for amarillo,tx okc tulsa, ok Dallas/fort worth,tx, abilene,tx, wichita ks... they nailed the major snow/ice storm in early december in North Texas oklahoma and kansas with weird highs/lows beforehand 40/50s temps were in the 20s and low 3os but they had the wintry precip right...usually temps even out.. with way above average temps 20 to 30 degrees above normal now there should be a 20-30 degree below normal time period starting on the 17th of jan.. hopefully...

[Extremeweatherguy]

around jan.17th accu still has snow sleet freezing rain for amarillo,tx okc tulsa, ok Dallas/fort worth,tx, abilene,tx, wichita ks... they nailed the major snow/ice storm in early december in North Texas oklahoma and kansas with weird highs/lows beforehand 40/50s temps were in the 20s and low 3os but they had the wintry precip right...usually temps even out.. with way above average temps 20 to 30 degrees above normal now there should be a 20-30 degree below normal time period starting on the 17th of jan.. hopefully...

Yeah, I think the entire plains cools to way below normal by late month. We shall see...

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

TXZ021>044-161545-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...
SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...
O`DONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
343 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

...WINTERY WEATHER TO RETURN TO WEST TEXAS TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY TOWARDS WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALSO...A STRONG
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AROUND OR JUST BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. AS A RESULT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS NORTHWEST POSSIBLY SEEING A
RAIN SNOW MIX PRIOR TO THE NOON HOUR...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT DUSTING
OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER WITH THE VERY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS MAY
SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. SKIES WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WIND CHILL
INDICES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

[plainsman]

Amarillo Texas got a couple of inches of snow yesterday(jan 16) the panhandle always steals all of the Texas snow..lol... if only Dallas had 3000 ft. of elevation like the panhandle does....... these warm temperatures are out of control this winter for the country in general i mean at 9 this morning its in the 50s in ohio.. thats ridiculous... low 60s for highs in southwest south dakota a few days ago inthe heart of winter is unheard of... temps always even out though in the end......