*GASP*.......holds breath

[azsnowman]

OK.....I'm HOLDING my breath on THIS ONE

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

EXTENDED MODELS INSIST ON A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD A PERIOD OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL SET UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...THE MODEL TREND FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND DIG IT FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND INCREASE COVERAGE DOWN TO THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...AND GFS ENSEMBLES FEATURE GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND DEPTH. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE MOIST AND STRONGER WAVE...SO THE CHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM SATURDAY ARE IMPROVING. CAVEAT IS THAT THE STORM WILL BE A FAST MOVER IN THIS FLOW PATTERN..MEANING DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT.

[x-y-no]

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.

Just took a look at the HPC forecasts, and it looks like they keep the precipitation mostly northwest of you, but a little extra amplitude could do the job.

[azsnowman]

x's his fingers, toes, eyes..................

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SINCE TIMING OF EACH WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HAVE BROADBRUSHED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE TIME FRAME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT FEATURES A GOOD CHANCE OF OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AZ...WITH PERHAPS A TASTE ON THURSDAY.

[Stephanie]

I hope that they are right Dennis!

[angelwing]

Will say a few prayers that it works out!

[azsnowman]

Friggin' FIGURES AH WELL.....there's no SNOW in the cards THIS YEAR

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SERIES OF STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERNS...HOWEVER... DO NOT YET INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN PACIFIC SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW...

[azsnowman]

*faints* (picks himself up off the floor) *faints again*

What is THIS???? I haven't seen a HWO in EONS, let's try 9 MONTHS even if this doesn't evolve, it will be NICE just to see a friggin CLOUD


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 AM MST WED DEC 28 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-290700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1040 AM MST WED DEC 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT NEAR THE UTAH
BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BLOCKING SIGNIFICANT STORMS
FROM ENTERING NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.

THE FIRST WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER OF THE YEAR IS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALONG
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

$$

[azsnowman]

OK......this is Nutz, first it''s off, then it's on, then it's off now.......I have totally GIVEN UP on winter and I am in FULL spring mode now, winter's OVER, just can't WAIT till summer, MAYBE, just MAYBE we'll have a MONSOON season

WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME STRONG ON MONDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[Ivanhater]

heck, ill take some flurries!

[azsnowman]

heck, ill take some flurries!

ROFLMAO......So would I bud, SO WOULD I In the 39 years on the mountain, I have NEVER, EVER seen a WARM (HOT IMHO) DRY winter like this, I mean heck, ALL the FLOWERS are popping up, daffadils, tulips, columbine

Dennis

[azsnowman]

*sigh* Heard on the local FOX10 News this a.m. that this is THE driest since 1955 also talked to a forest service offical, the forests WILL be closed in February to ANY and ALL traffic UNTIL such time we receive any precip and the way it's looking that will be when "Hades freezes over!" and the ice melts

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY...BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FAIR WX...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AND NO PCPN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DB

Dennis

[azsnowman]

What else is new?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER ARIZONA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.