January 1-15 Outlook: Mild Much of the Time in the East Firs

[donsutherland1]

This is the type of post I very much don’t like to make. In comparison, pre-changed Scrooge is a model philanthropist. In my view, the East’s intermission from cold and snow is likely to continue through at least the first 10 days of January and possibly somewhat longer.

There is currently good support on the ensembles and computer guidance for a warm start in the eastern United States. At this time, given the strong Pacific jet and noted absence of blocking, I believe the ensembles and guidance are painting a reasonable picture of how January will begin.

Important amplification that still appears likely for the middle or latter part of the first week in January and it could kick off a fairly lengthy pattern evolution that would eventually see the Pacific jet relax and perhaps blocking begin to develop, possibly just before mid-month. Some of the GFS ensembles suggest that the NAO could go negative in that timeframe.

Bad news aside, in spite of the likely warm start to January, I believe a case can be made for January to experience a return of cold—and possibly severe cold at some point—particularly for the second half of the month. But that’s a matter that will have to be examined later.

Radical Changes in the Pacific:
Even as the warmth melts the enthusiasm of winter weather lovers in a large part of the USA, big things are happening.

Most dramatic is the sharp change in the Pacific anomalies. While ENSO Region 3.4 has continued to sink with an anomaly of -0.7°C, ENSO Region 1+2 has seen a cool anomaly of -0.9°C wiped out completely in one week! The new anomaly there is +0.1°C. No such change took place in December 1989, so this is yet another argument against the dreaded 1989-90 pattern flip scenario.

In the past, a sharp rise in the Region 1+2 anomaly that resulted in an anomaly of -0.2°C to +0.2°C for the month experiencing a rise has proved to be a cold signal for the Mid-Atlantic and New England states for the succeeding month. Since 1950, this has occurred 6 times in November, December, or January:

∙ November 1980: Change: +0.43°C; Monthly Anomaly: -0.12°C
∙ December 1960: Change: +0.67°C; Monthly Anomaly: -0.10°C
∙ December 1968: Change: +0.49°C; Monthly Anomaly: +0.16°C
∙ December 1981: Change: +0.43°C; Monthly Anomaly: +0.16°C
∙ January 1972: Change: +1.01°C; Monthly Anomaly: +0.14°C
∙ January 1986: Change: +0.58°C; Monthly Anomaly: +0.19°C

The outcomes were as follows:

∙ Northeast: Cooler than normal to near normal: 6/6 (100%); Cooler than normal: 4/6 (67%)
∙ Mid-Atlantic: Cooler than normal to near normal: 6/6 (100%); Cooler than normal: 4/6 (67%)
∙ Southeast: Cooler than normal to near normal: 5/6 (83%); Cooler than normal: 2/6 (33%)

To get there, one would probably need an extended period of below to much below normal readings, possibly highlighted by a bout of extreme cold, given the warm anomalies that are likely to build up in the first half of January.

Of particular interest are the December situations, given the timing of the changes in ENSO 1+2 anomalies. All favored normal to colder than normal conditions in January, though the timing differed. All also favored a return of snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Snowfall for the remainder of winter for select cities:

1961
Boston: 44.6”
New York City: 36.1”
Washington, DC (DCA): 31.6”

1969
Boston: 36.2”
New York City: 23.2”
Washington, DC (DCA): 8.9”

1982
Boston: 44.2”
New York City: 22.5”
Washington, DC (DCA): 20.8”

The return of snowfall is consistent with the overall historical experience. Winters in which patterns produce abundant snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England in December often have the tendency to produce additional abundant snowfall later in the season--often in January and/or February--after perhaps a break.

The abundant December snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions strongly suggests that most of the affected region is likely to experience above normal seasonal snowfall for Winter 2005-06.

∙ New York City: 30” or More Snowfall Highly Likely:
Through December 11, New York City had received 9.3” snowfall in December.
Since 1869, the following has held true:

November: Trace or more/December: 9” or more: 19/22 (86%) seasons received 30” or more snowfall; Median snowfall: 42.0”; Mean snowfall: 42.3”

∙ Washington, D.C.: 20” or More Snowfall Likely:
In 7/8 (88%) years in which the November temperature came to 50.2° +/- 1° and December saw 3.0" or greater snowfall, seasonal snowfall reached or exceeded 20" and 5/8 (63%) reached or exceeded 30". Median seasonal snowfall came to 31.2” and mean seasonal snowfall amounted to 28.5”

∙ Philadelphia: 25" or More Snowfall Likely:
In seasons in which Washington, D.C. received 20” or more snowfall and New York City received 30” or more snowfall, the following has occurred in Philadelphia:

- 18/22 (82%) seasons with 25” or more seasonal snowfall
- 15/22 (68%) seasons with 30” or more seasonal snowfall
- Median seasonal snowfall: 35.7”
- Mean seasonal snowfall: 37.4”

In short, the dramatic change in ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies bolsters my thinking that Boston will likely reach at least 40" snowfall for the winter, New York City 30", Philadelphia 25", and Washington, DC 20".

The Arctic Oscillation:
In 10/10 (100%) cases where December saw the Arctic Oscillation (AO) average -1.500 or below, the Arctic Oscillation came to < 0 in January. 8/10 (80%) cases saw January average near normal to below normal in terms of temperatures in the East. In 6/7 (86%) cases where the January Arctic Oscillation averaged -0.500 or below, temperatures were normal to below normal. Furthermore, in 6/6 (100%) cases where the NAO averaged < 0 and the AO averaged < 0 in January, the East saw near normal to below normal temperatures.

In the 10 seasons in which the AO averaged -1.500 or below in December, the greatest likelihood of warmth in January was in the Southwestern U.S. There, 7/10 (70%) cases averaged warmer than normal in January and 10/10 (100%) averaged normal to warmer than normal. In the Pacific Northwest 6/10 (60%) cases averaged warmer than normal in January and 7/10 (70%) averaged normal to warmer than normal. In the Ohio Valley, 8/10 (80%) cases were normal to cooler than normal in January.

Through 12/27, the AO has averaged -1.961 for December. Hence, it will almost certainly average -1.500 or below for December. True to form, the ensembles are suggesting that the first 7-10 days of January could see the Arctic Oscillation average < 0 and, according to some, < -1.00.

Conclusion:
Overall, I expect the following for the January 1-15 period:
∙ Warmer to sometimes much warmer than normal conditions for the January 1-7 period in Richmond to Boston.
∙ Possible high temperatures that would reach or exceed 60° in Richmond, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore on one or more days in the January 1-7 period. One or more days of 50° or above highs appear likely in Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, and Boston.
∙ Closer to normal but still somewhat above normal temperatures for the January 8-15 period in Richmond to Boston.
∙ Little or no measurable snowfall in Richmond to New York City through January 10. Northern New England, including such cities as Burlington and Caribou could see abundant snowfall.
∙ Increasing prospects for a return to colder conditions in the January 12-15 period.

[MiamiensisWx]

Does this trend in SST anomalies starting to warm in parts of the Pacific, coupled with continuing cooling/moderating in much of the Atlantic, mean that an El Nino has become more possible, donsutherland1?

[WindRunner]

Very nice summary, Don, though maybe not enjoyed. Warmer than average temps is not something I tend to appreciate. I hope you are right in saying they will last only for the first half of the month, though. However, I really like that part about 20-30"+ more snowfall at DCA for later in the winter.

[donsutherland1]

CapeVerdeWave,

I don't expect an El Niño through at least the Spring. ENSO Region 3.4 is now at La Niña-ish levels (-0.7°C).

[donsutherland1]

One of the things I had noted for the first week in January was the following, "Possible high temperatures that would reach or exceed 60° in Richmond, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore on one or more days in the January 1-7 period. One or more days of 50° or above highs appear likely in Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, and Boston."

The 12/27 12z ECMWF is all but screaming of such potential!

Forecast 850 mb temperatures for 1/2 12z and 1/3 12z for select cities:
Boston: +0.8°C/+6.0°C
New York City: +5.9°C/+6.9°C
Philadelphia: +8.0°C/+6.6°C
Richmond: +11.4°C!/+5.8°C
Washington, DC (DCA): +9.7°C/+5.2°C

Of course, such warmth need not mean the demise of hopes for a return of colder weather. Bear in mind the highest temperatures for the same cities just before the pattern turned much colder last January on the 15th:

Boston: 63°, 1/14
New York City: 66°, 1/14
Philadelphia: 66°, 1/13-14
Richmond: 75°, 1/13
Washington, DC (DCA): 71°, 1/13

[donsutherland1]

WindRunner,

I believe DCA will likely reach 20" or more seasonal snowfall. I will take a look at overall ENSO anomalies to see what they show a little later today or tonight.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Don,
I hope that you are right about a the return of El Nino. I believe the El Nino brought Texas lots of rain. We really can use it since we are almost 20 inches below for this year. I hate to see the drought continue. Not even Hurricane Rita helped us break this drought this year.
It has been in the 80's yesterday and today and looks to be in the 70's for sometime with dry weather, low humidity, and lots of strong west and southwest winds.
The poor firefighters are so exhausted. Do you see any hope of rain, forget the snow, We'll be glad to take it in liquid form here. If we continue to get Cold freezing temps with dry conditions with no precp. it will continue to dry us out even more.
Bring on the El Nino!!!

[donsutherland1]

ETXHAMXYL,

Sorry, I had a typo. I do not expect an El Niño through at least the spring. Sorry about the error.

[VoodooCadillac]

Conclusion:
Overall, I expect the following for the January 1-15 period:
∙ Warmer to sometimes much warmer than normal conditions for the January 1-7 period in Richmond to Boston.
∙ Possible high temperatures that would reach or exceed 60° in Richmond, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore on one or more days in the January 1-7 period. One or more days of 50° or above highs appear likely in Philadelphia, New York City, Providence, and Boston.
∙ Closer to normal but still somewhat above normal temperatures for the January 8-15 period in Richmond to Boston.
∙ Little or no measurable snowfall in Richmond to New York City through January 10. Northern New England, including such cities as Burlington and Caribou could see abundant snowfall.
∙ Increasing prospects for a return to colder conditions in the January 12-15 period.

I might have to start calling you Frank Burns instead of Hawkeye Pearce if you keep bringing us bad news like this! Of course, it's not right to shoot the messenger.

[wx247]

What do you think of the prospects of some significant precip (liquid or otherwise) in MO/KS/OK/AR/TX?We are in desperate need, being behind in a wide area greater than 12", some areas much worse!

[Brent]

Great post Don... even though I don't like it(though I do agree with you right now).

[donsutherland1]

Wx247,

For the next 7-10 days, I don't expect much precipitation there. Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas could be especially dry.

[donsutherland1]

Voodoocadillac and Brent,

I don't like it either. Given the message, the messenger wanted to shoot himself!

[Stephanie]

Okay, don't shoot THIS messenger, but I bought the Old Farmer's Almanac for 2006. For the "Atlantic Corridor" it was eerily close to actual with it's prediction of 6 degrees below average in December and heavy snow December 5 - 8 (kind of close). They also had 4 degrees above average temps for November which was a mild month.

Anyway, they discuss "heavy snow and bitter cold" for January 13 - 20 and then again January 26 - 31. If anything, it looks like it has the timing down as far as what you are thinking Don regarding the return of winter like conditions. Not that this validates it, but I at least find it "hopeful".

[BReb]

Do you guys who love cold weather love it so much that you like the sky-high natural gas and heating oil bills? With the way the prices for natural gas are post-Katrina, a lot of poor people are going to be sleeping in 60 degree homes if we don't have a warm winter in the east. I'm hoping it continues, along with a nice snowstorm now and then to keep things interesting.

[WindRunner]

Okay, don't shoot THIS messenger, but I bought the Old Farmer's Almanac for 2006. For the "Atlantic Corridor" it was eerily close to actual with it's prediction of 6 degrees below average in December and heavy snow December 5 - 8 (kind of close). They also had 4 degrees above average temps for November which was a mild month.

Anyway, they discuss "heavy snow and bitter cold" for January 13 - 20 and then again January 26 - 31. If anything, it looks like it has the timing down as far as what you are thinking Don regarding the return of winter like conditions. Not that this validates it, but I at least find it "hopeful".

I was noticing that earlier today. They also did pretty good with the storm on Dec. 15. Granted they also called for heavy snow for the period around Christmas, but they haven't done too bad this year. I'm still going to stick with Don's forecasts, though. Much more reliable.

[Stephanie]

Okay, don't shoot THIS messenger, but I bought the Old Farmer's Almanac for 2006. For the "Atlantic Corridor" it was eerily close to actual with it's prediction of 6 degrees below average in December and heavy snow December 5 - 8 (kind of close). They also had 4 degrees above average temps for November which was a mild month.

Anyway, they discuss "heavy snow and bitter cold" for January 13 - 20 and then again January 26 - 31. If anything, it looks like it has the timing down as far as what you are thinking Don regarding the return of winter like conditions. Not that this validates it, but I at least find it "hopeful".

I was noticing that earlier today. They also did pretty good with the storm on Dec. 15. Granted they also called for heavy snow for the period around Christmas, but they haven't done too bad this year. I'm still going to stick with Don's forecasts, though. [b]Much more reliable[/b].

HECK YEAH!!!

[donsutherland1]

12/31-1/1 Event:

Overnight, until the 6z runs, the overall model guidance trended cooler. As a result, I believe NYC will likely see some snow--possibly mixed with rain and perhaps a period of plain snow--but any accumulations there would be minor. Overall, this looks to be a light precipitation producer.

Initial estimates:

Albany: 1"-3"
Boston: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
New York City: Less than 1"
Newark: Less than 1"
Providence: 1"-3"
White Plains: 1"-3"

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Stephanie. Have a great New Year!

[donsutherland1]

BReb,

FWIW, I much prefer snowfall to cold weather. There are some people I know who do like brutal arctic air masses, but they appear to be the exception.

Having said this, even a heavy snowstorm can have major adverse economic implications--closed workplaces, transportation/shipping/travel disruptions, etc. Nonetheless, there is a aesthetic aspect that makes a good snowstorm a wonderful thing for many who live in areas that can experience such events.

Have a nice New Year!