Snow and Icestorms in NE GA For 2004-2005 winter season.

[Wnghs2007]

I was wondering if any of you brilliant weather geniuses could help me out here. donsutherland1, USAwx1, ATS, elw, or anyone else who could help me out here i would really appreciate it.


Could anyone if they have time. Give me and in depth discussion of what we might excpect come winter time in NE GA. Will there be an increased risk for the dreaded WEDGE Lol and the ice storm(s) it may bring along with it.Will there be more snow than normal possibly. From what you could tell now I would like to know. Thanks for yalls help.

[USAwx1]

hey bud....I cant give you anythign real "in-depth" at least not RIGHT NOW. But suffice to say i expect the core of the below normal temperatures to be located across the Southeast US. perhaps on the order of -1.5 to -2.0 degrees.

Precipitation may end up Near normal. the AVG snowfall in the analogs for ATL was 1.30". and like i said in the other thread, the outlier season was 1963-64 w/ over 3"/

[Wnghs2007]

hey bud....I cant give you anythign real "in-depth" at least not RIGHT NOW. But suffice to say i expect the core of the below normal temperatures to be located across the Southeast US. perhaps on the order of -1.5 to -2.0 degrees.

Precipitation may end up Near normal. the AVG snowfall in the analogs for ATL was 1.30". and like i said in the other thread, the outlier season was 1963-64 w/ over 3"/

Yeah. I just hope this time when the ETA and GFS both show a 1040 mb high up in Canada it comes to pass. And it can be strong enough to get the freezing line down the mountains and usher in the dryer air so when it rains the air will cool enough for a major ice storm. The 2000 one was awsome!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

Wnghs2007, trust me, I'll give you 7 days notice when I see it coming.

[USAwx1]

Yeah, KC nobody knows CAD situations like SF!

[Wnghs2007]

Wnghs2007, trust me, I'll give you 7 days notice when I see it coming.

Yes. Thanks you god yes. I love your site, especially in those winter situations. Really great discussions. And I cant wait for this winter to see even more of your great work!!!!!:D

[verycoolnin]

Precipitation may end up Near normal. the AVG snowfall in the analogs for ATL was 1.30". and like i said in the other thread, the outlier season was 1963-64 w/ over 3"/

With a weak El Nino forming shouldn't precipitation be a little above normal for the southeast?

[USAwx1]

Precipitation may end up Near normal. the AVG snowfall in the analogs for ATL was 1.30". and like i said in the other thread, the outlier season was 1963-64 w/ over 3"/

With a weak El Nino forming shouldn't precipitation be a little above normal for the southeast?

yes, Weak El Nino events do correlate well with Above normal precip in the Southeast due to the enhanced STJ. BUT The info in my post above is what the preliminary ANALOG years suggest for ATL ONLY--it does not apply to the rest of the SE US.

[Wnghs2007]

Almost a month has passed since I wrote this question. Any new information since then???? I know I know probally to early. Thou impatient bone in thouest body douseth not wait.

[USAwx1]

Almost a month has passed since I wrote this question. Any new information since then???? I know I know probally to early. Thou impatient bone in thouest body douseth not wait.

Yes, there is new information, and im working on preparing part 1 of my winter outlook right now.

BUT thou's impatient bone in thoust body is going to have to wait until SEP 15 and the newsletter to see it.

[Wnghs2007]

Almost a month has passed since I wrote this question. Any new information since then???? I know I know probally to early. Thou impatient bone in thouest body douseth not wait.

Yes, there is new information, and im working on preparing part 1 of my winter outlook right now.

BUT thou's impatient bone in thoust body is going to have to wait until SEP 15 and the newsletter to see it.

Cool. Thou impatient bone in thoust body will wait untill then

[donsutherland1]

Wnghs2007,

There are some reasons for encouragement with respect to Winter 2004-05 in Atlanta. Overall, I am in good agreement with USAwx1's earlier observations. For one thing, the weak El Niño for the winter now appears very likely. At this time, I also don't see the ENSO regional anomalies proving to be a real killer for winter's prospects.

[USAwx1]

Wnghs2007,

There are some reasons for encouragement with respect to Winter 2004-05 in Atlanta. Overall, I am in good agreement with USAwx1's earlier observations. For one thing, the weak El Niño for the winter now appears very likely. At this time, I also don't see the ENSO regional anomalies proving to be a real killer for winter's prospects.

if anything they will be an enhancing factor b/c you don't get near the amount of heat pumped into systems which develop in the southern branch when you have El Nino conditions centered in the 3.4 and 4.0 region---like you would if there was a raging El Nino w/ SSTA > 3.0 DEG C centered in the 1+2, and 3.0 region.

In other words you still get the enhanced STJ (and the corresponding storminess) w/o the strong warming effects or Intense Pacific low which floods the source regions with polar-pacific air. Add in a -NAO in the means and one has upped the potential for widespread above normal snowfall in the EUS even more, and further south.

[Wnghs2007]

Bump. Hows it looking now guys.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, KC nobody knows CAD situations like SF!

Yeah, I second that! You have GOT to check out his website!!

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

If Stormsfury doesn't have it on his weather site, you don't need to know it! You need to know about CAD (Cold Air Damming) scenarios, SF's the man to see.

[Wnghs2007]

Bump again.

Have you released your outlook USAwx1? I have not seen you here in a while and was wondering. Thanks.

[wxguy25]

Bump again.

Have you released your outlook USAwx1? I have not seen you here in a while and was wondering. Thanks.

Not yet, but rest assured, KC, Its coming. Im working on it right now, and Im hoping to have it done and ready for release on MON night. My time has been consumed recently by other issues over the past several weeks, so I haven’t had a chance to focus much attention on the winter.

[Wnghs2007]

Bump again.

Have you released your outlook USAwx1? I have not seen you here in a while and was wondering. Thanks.

Not yet, but rest assured, KC, Its coming. Im working on it right now, and Im hoping to have it done and ready for release on MON night. My time has been consumed recently by other issues over the past several weeks, so I haven’t had a chance to focus much attention on the winter.

Ok thanks bud.

Also, what happend to your username? Did you forget your password or something? Or did you just want a new one. Sorry for being so pushy sounding.

[Wnghs2007]

WOW. It would be great to have some high snowfall totals this year.

[yoda]

Can't wait to see it USAWx1. KC, I can only see at most 10 inches for you... I will have mine out soon as well.