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SRN STREAM SYSTEM ORGANIZATION AND PCPN WILL TRY TO GET
GOING MON/TUE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE GULF OF MEX...AND
GULF COASTAL STATES AS INCREASINGLY POTENT S/WV TROF ENERGY
DIGS SEWD INTO THE REGION AND ITS INHERENT HIGH PRESSURE AND
OUR PROGS DO SUPPORT SOME SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST
LIGHTER PCPN POTENTIAL. THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER ACROSS THE
SERN US...MID-ATLC...AND WRN ATLANTIC WED-FRI. PREFERRED
EARLIER TODAY TO TREND THE 00 UTC GFS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE RESULTING SOLUTION LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE NEW 12 UTC
GFS. THE 12 UTC GFS SUPPORTS SERN US COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
BY WED BUT ITS NEWD PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST IS FASTER THAN
THE MORE AMPLIFIED 00 UTC GFS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING GUIDANCE FROM MOST OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND
KEEPING IN MIND HPC CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS MANUALLY
DERIVED PROGS. THIS SOLUTION SUPPORTS HEAVY PCPN POTENTIAL
FOR THE SERN US/FL AS WELL AS UP THRU THE ERN MID-ATLC WITH
AND ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WINTERY PCPN
OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SE US/MID-ATLC TUE/WED AND
POSSIBLY SERN NEW ENG WED INTO THU IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE WRAP-BACK PCPN SHIELD.
UPSTREAM...SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF ENERGY SEEMS
HEADED OUT FROM THE WRN US TO THE CENTRAL US BY NEXT THU/FRI
WITH SUPPORTING DYNAMICS FAVORING WARMING AND CYCLOGENESIS
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE AND
WIDESPREAD PCPN PATTERN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND
FUELS ACTIVITY. PREFER AT THIS TIME FRAME NOT TO GO QUITE
AS STRONG AS THE 12 UTC GFS OR ECMWF BUT POTENT PAC THEN WRN
US ENERGY LIKELY ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE
SO THEIR LARGER SCALE MASS FIELDS SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
I think I undersatnd what they are talking about.. but could someone help me understand it more clearly? Are they talking about two events for Mid-Atlantic? Thanks!
