SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-122200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
519 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA STILL LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WARM AIR
WILL BE DRAWN UP AND OVER THE VERY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...LIFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO...TO PALESTINE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
FALL ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND
TO GREENVILLE. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS...WHILE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...IF
ANY OCCUR AT ALL. THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETTER
DEFINED LATER TODAY.
RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
Possible Wintry Mix Late Friday to Saturday for this area!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
ONCE AGAIN A VERY TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SLOW MOVING H5 LOW AND POSSIBLE
WINTRY PRECIP FOR NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE
WE GET TO THAT...LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND QUITE CHILLY DAY FOR
THURSDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER INTO N TEXAS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND EVEN INTO KSPS BY 10Z. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING SOME PRETTY CHILLY WIND CHILL VALUES WITH TEMPS STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY ATTM...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS THAT COULD TAKE US TO NEEDING THE
ADVY.
FORECAST GETS MORE CHALLENGING TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
H5 LOW TO WORK ACROSS N TEXAS. WE TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT ALL THE
SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
SLOWER ETA AS 00Z AVN LOOKS TOO FAST WITH H25 JET ENERGY STILL
PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WATER VAPOR INDICATED ALL
THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE LOW AT 06Z...BUT MOST OF THEM
STILL WANT TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS OUR CWA...NEAR THE I20
CORRIDOR...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...AS INDICATED BY ETA DIV-Q FIELDS. IF THIS WAS THE
ONLY LIFT...PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD TYPICALLY BE RATHER LIGHT.
HOWEVER...00Z ETA CONTINUED TO BE QUITE WET...WITH QUARTER INCH QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WE ALSO TOOK A VERY CLOSE LOOK FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WHILE THE ETA DOES SHOW SOME DECENT LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K
SURFACES...IT IS NOT AS STRONG AS WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR A BIG
EVENT. MUCH OF THE LIFT EARLY ON COMES WITH WIND FLOW FROM MEXICO AS
THE GULF IS CUT OFF. WHEN THE FLOW GETS BETTER FROM THE GULF...IT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
STRONG ORTHOGONAL FLOW INTO OUR CWA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER THE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
ETA HAS EVEN LESS QPF...SO THIS TOO WOULD SUPPORT LOWER POPS.
STILL...DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD STILL
BE SOME FORM OF WINTRY VARIETY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
ONCE AGAIN A VERY TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SLOW MOVING H5 LOW AND POSSIBLE
WINTRY PRECIP FOR NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE
WE GET TO THAT...LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND QUITE CHILLY DAY FOR
THURSDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER INTO N TEXAS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK AND EVEN INTO KSPS BY 10Z. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING SOME PRETTY CHILLY WIND CHILL VALUES WITH TEMPS STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY ATTM...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS AS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS THAT COULD TAKE US TO NEEDING THE
ADVY.
FORECAST GETS MORE CHALLENGING TOMORROW AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
H5 LOW TO WORK ACROSS N TEXAS. WE TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT ALL THE
SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
SLOWER ETA AS 00Z AVN LOOKS TOO FAST WITH H25 JET ENERGY STILL
PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WATER VAPOR INDICATED ALL
THE MODELS WERE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE LOW AT 06Z...BUT MOST OF THEM
STILL WANT TO BRING THE LOW ACROSS OUR CWA...NEAR THE I20
CORRIDOR...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE COLD CORE LOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...AS INDICATED BY ETA DIV-Q FIELDS. IF THIS WAS THE
ONLY LIFT...PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD TYPICALLY BE RATHER LIGHT.
HOWEVER...00Z ETA CONTINUED TO BE QUITE WET...WITH QUARTER INCH QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WE ALSO TOOK A VERY CLOSE LOOK FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WHILE THE ETA DOES SHOW SOME DECENT LIFT ALONG THE 290-300K
SURFACES...IT IS NOT AS STRONG AS WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR A BIG
EVENT. MUCH OF THE LIFT EARLY ON COMES WITH WIND FLOW FROM MEXICO AS
THE GULF IS CUT OFF. WHEN THE FLOW GETS BETTER FROM THE GULF...IT
BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
STRONG ORTHOGONAL FLOW INTO OUR CWA. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER THE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
ETA HAS EVEN LESS QPF...SO THIS TOO WOULD SUPPORT LOWER POPS.
STILL...DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR SUGGEST PRECIP SHOULD STILL
BE SOME FORM OF WINTRY VARIETY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Of interest is the 12z run of the GFS, which trends further south with the upper low as compared to the two previous GFS runs.
This would mean more wintry weather for south/central Texas than previously thought if it verifies.
Already notice icy conditions developing in the San Angelo area.
This would mean more wintry weather for south/central Texas than previously thought if it verifies.
Already notice icy conditions developing in the San Angelo area.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
-
Guest
Portastorm wrote:Of interest is the 12z run of the GFS, which trends further south with the upper low as compared to the two previous GFS runs.
This would mean more wintry weather for south/central Texas than previously thought if it verifies.
Already notice icy conditions developing in the San Angelo area.
Ice in San Angelo - is the cold moving in faster then orginally thought? What are your thoughts Portastorm - think Austin will see anything?
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Go to this link as it will let you run 15-day loops on each GFS run:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/index.shtml
Meanwhile, ticka, as for Austin? Who knows ... JB from Accuwx for the 3rd day in a row is saying accumulating snow for Austin/Waco/College Station by lunch Saturday. NWS has been blowing off the event and downplaying it.
You know how this winter events in Texas usually go ... if the low is 100 miles further north or south, it changes everything. But if the 12z run of the GFS is right, Austin may get several inches of sleet/snow.
As for trends though it is interesting to note that our NWS guys are now mentioning possibilities even overnight tonight of some light freezing precip.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/index.shtml
Meanwhile, ticka, as for Austin? Who knows ... JB from Accuwx for the 3rd day in a row is saying accumulating snow for Austin/Waco/College Station by lunch Saturday. NWS has been blowing off the event and downplaying it.
You know how this winter events in Texas usually go ... if the low is 100 miles further north or south, it changes everything. But if the 12z run of the GFS is right, Austin may get several inches of sleet/snow.
As for trends though it is interesting to note that our NWS guys are now mentioning possibilities even overnight tonight of some light freezing precip.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
-
CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE TO INCLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
GUADALUPE PASS. WIND SPEEDS ARE SURPASSING WARNING CRITERIA AT
THE PASS...AND THINK THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THESE WINDS SPEEDS TO
CONTINUE. NPW AND ZONE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS
PECOS...AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY DAVIS MOUNTAINS...STOCKTON
PLATEAU...CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...
...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GUADALUPE PASS...
NM...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE TO INCLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
GUADALUPE PASS. WIND SPEEDS ARE SURPASSING WARNING CRITERIA AT
THE PASS...AND THINK THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THESE WINDS SPEEDS TO
CONTINUE. NPW AND ZONE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS
PECOS...AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY DAVIS MOUNTAINS...STOCKTON
PLATEAU...CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...
...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR GUADALUPE PASS...
NM...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES.
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-
CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA HAS
MAINLY BEEN AROUND 1 INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED 2 INCH REPORTS NEAR
HEREFORD AND MULESHOE. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S THIS AFTN
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTN AS UPR LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS DRIFTS
SOUTH AND WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA HAS
MAINLY BEEN AROUND 1 INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED 2 INCH REPORTS NEAR
HEREFORD AND MULESHOE. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S THIS AFTN
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTN AS UPR LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS DRIFTS
SOUTH AND WEST INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE TODAY WILL BE MODERATED A
BIT BY SUN IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BACK TO THE MID
30S...IN THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 MPH
RANGE...BUT NOW NO LONGER EXPECT ANY GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CST THU FEB 12 2004
.UPDATE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE TODAY WILL BE MODERATED A
BIT BY SUN IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BACK TO THE MID
30S...IN THE DFW METROPLEX. CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 MPH
RANGE...BUT NOW NO LONGER EXPECT ANY GUSTS INTO THE 30S.
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
215 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM...THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT WE BELIEVE TO BE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF EVENTS THAT
COULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND NOON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE THREE AREAS WHERE DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF A KILLEEN...ATHENS
LINE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET
LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO JUST RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...PARIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...FROM THE COMANCHE...STEPHENVILLE...FORT
WORTH...DALLAS...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AREAS...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY.
AGAIN...THERE IS A GREAT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO
DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT PROJECTION...IT WOULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE
THE ABOVE PROJECTED SCENARIO.
RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WINTER STORM
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
215 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM...THE
FOLLOWING IS WHAT WE BELIEVE TO BE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF EVENTS THAT
COULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND NOON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE THREE AREAS WHERE DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF A KILLEEN...ATHENS
LINE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET
LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO JUST RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
NORTH OF AN EASTLAND...PARIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS...FROM THE COMANCHE...STEPHENVILLE...FORT
WORTH...DALLAS...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AREAS...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY...CHANGING TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY.
AGAIN...THERE IS A GREAT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...AND THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM WERE TO
DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT PROJECTION...IT WOULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE
THE ABOVE PROJECTED SCENARIO.
RESIDENTS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WINTER STORM
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.
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CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8728
- Age: 57
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)
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