winter storm outlook and lake effect update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good Saturday folks. A busy weekend in store. First let's focus on the lake effect snow, which has dumped on Oswego County, NY. Oswego, and Parish, NY were one of the hardest hit areas with snow amounting to over 6 feet in spots. This list below shows what I mean.

Parish, NY: 76 inches of snow total as of 7:20 am
West Monroe, NY: 48 inches of snow total as of 7:55 am
Constantia, NY: 52.2 inches of snow total as of 7:28 am
Fulton, NY: 36 inches of snow. January snow: 133 inches.
Minetto, NY: 66.6 inches of snow as of 8:30 am

A huge lake effect event and what's interesting is parts of Lake Ontario are frozen. So there's gotta be another source other than lake Ontario and there sure was ladies and gentlemen. There was a fetch off Lakes Superior, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario, and it dumped hard on Oswego County and parts of southern Lewis County also. I 81 north of Syracuse is a huge problem this morning in the wake of this huge event, which has finally tapered off to just a few flurries and snow showers at this time.

Meanwhile focusing further west, the makings of a major winter storm for the nations midsection and the potential of some very heavy snow accumulation and damaging ice as well within this zone. A winter storm warning is in effect for Manhattan, Topeka, Salina, and the Wichita area. A winter storm watch is in effect for southeastern and extreme eastern Kansas including the El Dorado and Kansas City Metro area. Winter storm watches extend north and eastward through north central Missouri including Columbia and St Louis, MO and up to Des Moines, Iowa and the Quad Cities area. An area of low pressure is moving through the desrt southwest and is expected to move into the nations midsection tomorrow. Ahead of this system, abundant guld moisture will build in. The gulf moisture combined with cold air already in place across the nations midsection and the midwest will result in a significant and potentially dangerous winter storm starting Sunday and lasting through late Monday. A few of the model depictions below indicate this significant winter storm scenario.

GFS 24-60 HRS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060s.gif

ETA 24-60 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060s.gif

A very interesting time period is setting up from the central plains over to the midwest and eventually the great lakes area beyond 60 hours. As this low pressure area tracks through Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday, abundant gulf moisture will be in place around this storm system. Areas north and west of this storm typically where we see the comma head will see the heaviest snowfall. For example, Wichita, Manhattan, Salina, Topeka, and St Joseph will likely be in the heaviest band of snowfall on Sunday through Monday morning. Further north and east, the heaviest band of snow will then focus on northern Missouri and into south central and eastern Iowa through Monday. The following is a city check on how much snow and or ice is likely to accumulate within this swath.

From Wichita to Salina eastward to Junction City, Manhattan, and Topeka, 8-14 inches of snow is expected to accumulate Sunday through early Monday morning. Wind gusts will frequently exceed 35 mph Sunday night into Monday morning resulting in near whiteout conditions. Travel is discouraged during this time period as near blizzard conditions combined with heavy snow could make travel nearly impossible at times. Winter storm warnings are already in effect in these affected zones. With all this accumulating snow we're talking about in Kansas, do we potentially see the heaviest snowfall on record for a 24 hour period in Topeka, KS? The following below are stats depicting the heaviest 24 hour snowfall ever for Topeka, KS since 1900 and we could easily place in the top 3 or 4 snowstorms of all time in Topeka. Have a look.

17.3 INCHES ON FEB. 2 1900
15.2 INCHES ON JAN. 9 1993
11.3 INCHES ON JAN. 9 1985 AND FEB. 21 1971
10.8 INCHES ON DEC. 5 1942

9.0 INCHES ON DEC. 30 1973
8.8 INCHES ON FEB. 25 1912
8.4 INCHES ON MAR. 14 1960 AND MAR. 2 1912
8.3 INCHES ON DEC. 14 1987
8.0 INCHES ON OCT. 22 1996, DEC. 31 1984 AND MAR. 30 1926

7.9 INCHES ON MAR. 21 1932
7.8 INCHES ON MAR. 9 1975
7.5 INCHES ON MAR. 7 1931
7.1 INCHES ON DEC. 27 1966
7.0 INCHES ON FEB. 1 1983 AND JAN. 5 1962

Further eastward and southward, the story becomes not snow, but ice and the potential for a major icestorm from southeast Kansas into central Missouri including the St Louis area. It's areas north and west of a line from Kansas City to Ottawa to Wichita, KS where double digit snowfall totals are likely. However for southeast Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and central and eastern Missouri, ice and the potential for a major icestorm is there for Sunday into Sunday night. Winter storm watches and warnings are up in these areas right now.

The timing of this brings ice to southeastern Kansas southeast of I 35 by Sunday. Up to 1/4 inch or more of ice accumulation is a possibility before changing over to snow Sunday night into Monday morning. Areas south of I 35 will see 2-5 inches of snow is a likelihood on top of all this ice making travel very dangerous to nearly impossible. Further east, ice will be the main story from southwest Missouri into St Louis, MO followed by a burst of snow on top of that, which will make travel very hazardous. Up to 1/2 inch of ice is possible in places with several inches of snow on top of that before precipitation tapers off later Monday for most of Missouri. I 40 and I 70 in central and eastern Missouri is not gonna look pretty. Isolated power outages are possible when ice accumulation exceeds 1/4 inch thick. Something worth monitoring carefully. This entire region is under a winter storm watch at this time.

Meanwhile further north, we get back to an all snow scenario and it will likely become heavy at times from northern Missouri into south central and eastern Iowa where winter storm watches are up at this time. No watches are up further east into Chicago or the Great Lakes area. However this area can see significant snow as well as we head on through Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning.

For northern Missouri including St Joseph, expect 8-12 inches of snow to fall later Sunday through Monday morning. For Des Moines, IA, 6-12" of snow is likely while 6-10 inches of snow will likely accumulate in the Quad Cities area. This could be revised with time. However locally higher amounts are expected in these areas. In addition to that, strong winds will result in blowing and drifting snow on Monday and Monday night across this entire region. A winter storm watch is in effect from northern Missouri into central, southern, and eastern Iowa at this time. The expectation is these watches will shift east into the Great Lakes area from northern Illinois through south central Wisconsin and most of lower Michigan for Monday through Tuesday morning. Significant snow is likely in the central and southern great Lakes region Monday through Tuesday with amounts over 6 inches possible. This is a situation worth monitoring over the next few days and travel in the areas mentioned above is strongly discouraged after today across the central plains and midwest and after Monday morning from Chicago eastward into the Great Lakes region.

By later Tueday, the energy from this midwestern storm will likely transfer to the middle Atlantic coast. Depending on the exact location of this coastal feature will determine who gets the heaviest snow amounts and or possibly rain or a mix turning to rain for the major cities as we're seeing it right now. However this part of the storm needs to be monitored more carefully as the forecast is alot more complicated beyond Monday. Stay tuned for more updates as they come in.

Jim