NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS
430 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SUBZERO LOWS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY.

NORTHWEST H500 FLOW BEGINS TO BACK THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TAKING OVER ON SATURDAY. ONCE THE H500 RIDGE LINE PASSES
AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING. ETA FROM 00Z SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER
INITIAL EJECTION OF ENERGY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER AREA WHILE THE 06Z ETA WEAKENED
THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE THE GFS WAS MUCH WEAKER INITIALLY AND
FOCUSED ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE H500 TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS SLOW PATTERN ALLOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW TO MOVE FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING HELPING TO FEED
WARMER AIR AT H850 ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SOLUTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER
AIR WILL REACH...POSSIBLY CREATING ICING THROUGH EASTCENTRAL KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN H500 FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL IN QUESTION...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALERT EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH ICING AND SNOW
EXPECTED. IN FACT SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD EASILY EXCEED 6 INCHES IN
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE BY MONDAY MORNING IF CURRENT
ASSUMPTIONS ARE CORRECT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY END FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MONDAY EVENING.

[David]

Thanks for the recognition about Topeka.