Hello All ... its HM -- a word about the SECS

[HM]

The SECS threat developing TUE / WED is classic MILLER B .... look for two things to decide where the heavy snow axis will be and when the changeover to snow occurs.

1) THE h85 low jump ... where does it jump to and track. MODELS keep in on DELMARVA/S NJ jump. THIS would be sufficient for a change to significant snows from PHL north into southern new england including NY and PA.

2) The track of the 500MB s/w which clearly is going into OH river valley. CLIMO says this is a new england / n of m/d line storm. ANY further N or S shift will ultimately shift the deformation zone and SLP track.

THE SLP will come to a point where it stops moving north AND just heads DUE east b/c of blocking. SOMETHING like DEC5-6. SO NO changeover to rain in BOS like in DEC 30. Everyone for a time will also be sleet, freezing rain OR mix before it changes over b/c of SE flow where dendritification occurs.

AS FOR accumulations .... SLP deepening below 1000MB before NJ coast w/ rapid intensification could mean 1) a pivoting motion in time from PHL N and 2) CSI banding w/ the high UVM. ALSO deformation zone from NE PA, N NJ into southern new england means snow will be more prolonged, albeit lighter once highest UVM moves out into wednesday. EXPECT snowfall rates in N NJ, E PA and SE NY to approach 2-4"/hr in some CSI bands. ALSO thundersnow cannot be ruled out. TOTAL accumulation of snow will depend upon the setup of the deformation zone, pivot w/ mid level low AND the changeover. THE ETA / MM5 also have much higher QPF than the GFS / UKMET w/ RGEM somewhat the middle ground. MM5 / ETA would mean 18-30 inches of snow in the higher elevations of NW NJ and NE PA! MY call is 18-25 inches in this area and extend it east across deformation zone into far southern new england in small axis. ALTHOUGH in the NYC area the mixing may last longer than to the NW so accumulations may be held down to 12-18 inches (big deal) which moves into leigh valley and the rest of n-c NJ. THIS includes long island and to the N of the deformation zone in S/C new england. BOSTON looks to sit on N edge ATTM so expect 6-12 inches there, but this can change easily. PHL looks like 4-8 inches w/ NW burbs 6-12 inches. S NJ 3-6 inches. PROBLEM IN PHL / S NJ into DCA area is going to be ice accumulations w/ +IP / ZR potential vs snow. ONCE transfer occurs IT SHUTS OFF in these areas and colder air comes in w/ perhaps only grazing snows S of PHL into S NJ.

[TheWeatherZone]

HM is here, this board rocks!!! HM glad to see you back man!


Mike~

[Heady Guy]

Glad to see you are back.

[Four Seasons]

nice to hear from you HM. Did you read DT tread about a possible storm Feb 2-4? Shades of 61 lol.

[NJwx15]

HM where do u think the 12" line stands right now? Im thinking totals asre gonna be very similar to Dec. 30th 2000 across the state of NJ...check this plot and see u guys agree. http://community.webshots.com/photo/632 ... 8065ZuoWfw
Philly received 6" from that puppy,I got 14", High Point got 30"

[dg13x]

Welcome back, HM! Have u glanced at the 18z eta so far...would that impact your thinking as of yet?

[Anonymous]

HM is here, this board rocks!!! HM glad to see you back man!


Mike~

I SECOND THAT!!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOOO-HOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[2001kx]

are we gonna see any action here in c-pa?

[Anonymous]

Nice to see you here, HM. Thanks for the update! Hate to see another DC screwjob, but looks like that's how it's turning out... but I'm hopeful for the even early next week.

[HM]

nice to hear from you HM. Did you read DT tread about a possible storm Feb 2-4? Shades of 61 lol.

I have had the FEB SECS threat now since 1/16 when I posted about feb/mar back on WWBB. DT YOUR PLAYING catchup! lol .... 1960-61 dominates and I expect NYC to have much above normal snow EVEN before FEB .... lol

[donsutherland1]

Outstanding discussion, HM. It's great to hear from you.

[WEATHER53]

Hm-Your presence here could very well solidify what I had attempted to coordinate back in December when I came here for two weeks and did a KA interview. That effort was to make this be the place where we meet. WWBB is a failed operation, they either cannot or will not initiate successful corrective procedure to stay operational when operation is most vital. Combine that with absent administrative folks who show up out of the blue last week and give you the boot and I think we have the parlay to show that both operationally and administratively that place is not worth our patronage. Now, there is a very powerful lure to overcome which is the wrestlemania atmosphere that keeps so many hooked, but with your huge weather input and some lesser players like myself who are already willing to commit here, I think the transfer to making this the place to be can be done. I just simply want to enjoy weather activity participation and not have it fraught with a bunch of ill will from ill intended peole combined with constant, repeated, and unchanging equipment failure. Good to see you posting-HMP

[southerngale]

Welcome to storm2k HM

[Guest]

Thanks for posting HM and joining Storm2k...

[JCT777]

HM - great to see you here, and excellent discussion. Looking good for some major snows from PHL north into southern New England.

[HM]

Welcome back, HM! Have u glanced at the 18z eta so far...would that impact your thinking as of yet?

I have seen it and no it wont impact it yet. ONLY impact would occur is IF all the data on the 00z run trends in the direction of the 18z run, to know its not just a blip AND its a trend. THE 18z ETA has trended further N w/ the h5 low AND the h85 low pops on NJ coast. THIS would be TOO late for NJ / PA, but just in time for southern new england. YES depressing run, but need to see confirmation w/ 00z data this evening before I buy this run.

THE data has been lacking key features, it may be having convective feedback errors w/ the squall line and was poorly initialized w/ the coastal front taking shape. ALSO factor in ETA bias w/ the SLP development here too WRT the inland SLP for a time when jumping is occuring.

DESPITE QPF on GFS / RGEM / MM5 --- there track of mid level low and slp would support a better snowstorm.

[dg13x]

Welcome back, HM! Have u glanced at the 18z eta so far...would that impact your thinking as of yet?

I have seen it and no it wont impact it yet. ONLY impact would occur is IF all the data on the 00z run trends in the direction of the 18z run, to know its not just a blip AND its a trend. THE 18z ETA has trended further N w/ the h5 low AND the h85 low pops on NJ coast. THIS would be TOO late for NJ / PA, but just in time for southern new england. YES depressing run, but need to see confirmation w/ 00z data this evening before I buy this run.

THE data has been lacking key features, it may be having convective feedback errors w/ the squall line and was poorly initialized w/ the coastal front taking shape. ALSO factor in ETA bias w/ the SLP development here too WRT the inland SLP for a time when jumping is occuring.

DESPITE QPF on GFS / RGEM / MM5 --- there track of mid level low and slp would support a better snowstorm.

Seems like it's doing the same thing it did with Part I. Shows a big snow then makes a last second shift to GFS.

[SnowWeatherMan]

HM.... it's known to many of us that a Miller B will screw someone because of it's sharp cutoff on the western edge. Where do you see this setting up. 12z data shows this aroud Harrisburg, PA going north and northeast into NY? I can recall in other Miller B's that a 20 mile difference in location can mean 4" in a western reagion and 12" farther east. I would think that the ETA is a little over done in its qpf during the 6 hour period at 42hr to 48hr. Those are extreme to say the least...

[HM]

Seems like it's doing the same thing it did with Part I. Shows a big snow then makes a last second shift to GFS.

NOT true ..... first of all the first event was a weakening s/w in the flow that was going to literally hit a wall of dry air. AS THE s/w weakened, the precip broke up. AS it was coming NORTH it was trying to saturate the air while doing so. GIVEN that, the snow dwindled.

THIS event is a well defined h5 low coming east from S plains. ALSO coastal cyclogensis tonight will become the noreaster tomorrow/wed. In this case the models were, on 12z run, classic for what they did w/ the ETA wet/west and GFS slighter drier and probably the better track of low. 18z run will not alter my thinking at all. NOT unless its a distinct trend tonight WRT the 00z data. TURNS out the best thing for this mornings snow was a compromise of GFS / ETA.

THE MM5 is unusually wet too which is why I gave the bigger snow forecast instead of a compromise. NO I dont think we see 30-36 inches which CTP MM5 has BUT 2 feet is common w/ these events in higher elevations.

[HM]

NOT to mention the 18z ETA has the 500MB low into NE OH ---- if thats the case then NYC is on southern edge of heavy snow axis, basic CLIMO. I hope this is not a new trend.