00z ETA CRUSHES WESTERN NC/SC WITH ICE!

[Stormsfury]

SF

[Weather4Life23]

would that include RDU

[Stormsfury]

would that include RDU

Yes...



SF

[Stormsfury]

How often do you see a map like this?



SF

[raysum]

Storm,
I live in Spartanburg and I am really concerned about the ice. Our current temp is 24 and we have continued to fall about a degree an hour all day. Our low for the night we supposed to be 25 but as you can tell we have already gone lower than that temp.

[weatherlover427]

I don't think I've ever seen that many winter wx warnings / advisories over such a large area. :o Stay safe guys and gals! :o

[Stormsfury]

Storm,
I live in Spartanburg and I am really concerned about the ice. Our current temp is 24 and we have continued to fall about a degree an hour all day. Our low for the night we supposed to be 25 but as you can tell we have already gone lower than that temp.

This is a serious situation, raysum ... and I've noticed the temperatures are CONTINUING to fall ... Charlotte has fallen to 21º. With the next round due to come in and develop in the next 12 hours, I fully expect to see a MAJOR ICESTORM and we're talking POTENTIALLY 1" OF ICE...

This is NOT good ...

SF

[jpp5862]

Down to 19 degrees here in CLT now SF. This has potential to be worse than Dec. 2002 doesn't it? That is NOT good.

[Stormsfury]

Raleigh-Durham NC Soundings ... all below Freezing and at 950mb (Glaciation occurred) ...



GSP Soundings ... warm nose from 950mb to 850mb level - SFC remains below freezing



SF

[Stormsfury]

Down to 19 degrees here in CLT now SF. This has potential to be worse than Dec. 2002 doesn't it? That is NOT good.

Yeah, I know ... this is quite a storm ... as of this time and post, the warm nose is higher in the atmosphere, hence the sleet/snow instead of ZR ... but as the warm nose punches in, expect the change to ZR, maybe a little later than progged.



SF

[raysum]

Down to 19 degrees here in CLT now SF. This has potential to be worse than Dec. 2002 doesn't it? That is NOT good.

We have now dropped to 23....this is amazing....We are going to be a glacier here in the upstate by tomorrow!

[raysum]

Raleigh-Durham NC Soundings ... all below Freezing and at 950mb (Glaciation occurred) ...



GSP Soundings ... warm nose from 950mb to 850mb level - SFC remains below freezing



SF

Hoping their is some way that through this next round we can stay sleet most of the time. But it is amazing to sit here and watch my therometer drop .2 degrees every 15 to 20 minutes!

[lookout]

Stormfury, northeast Georgia is about to get creamed too. i just hope not to many are caught off guard by the idiots at ffc and local media which have underplayed this for days. (had upper 50s for highs here tomorrow, eta has us at 26 tomorrow..after 23 in the morning.

[Nov1950]

When do you expect the next wave of precipitation to start in the upstate of SC and what kind of duration do you anticipate?

Also, does it look like it will be below freezing for the entire time.

Thanks

[Anonymous]

Stormsfury, What can we expect here in N VA through tomorrow?


Thanks!!



-JEB

[raysum]

When do you expect the next wave of precipitation to start in the upstate of SC and what kind of duration do you anticipate?

Also, does it look like it will be below freezing for the entire time.

Thanks

The latest GSP discussion....WSW all day tomorrow

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE ZONES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST ETA AND GFS DEVELOP FRONTAL WAVE WHICH RIDES UP THE SE COAST
ON MON. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER WEST
W/THIS FEATURE...AND THE ETA NOW HAS OVER AN INCH OF PCPN ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA MON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER E...BUT BRINGS
SIG PCPN TO JUST ABOUT ALL THE CWA E OF THE MTNS. CONSIDERING THE
HGHT FALLS TALKING PLACE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE MODEL/S
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST...IT LOOKS LIKE A SIG PCPN EVENT ACROSS
THE CWA TMRW.

THIS IS NOT GOOD. THE ETA IS ADVERTISING SFC TEMPS TO RISE NO
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 27 DEG F TOMORROW DURING THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST PCPN. THE OPERATIONAL ETA HAS A KNOWN COLD BIAS WITH IT/S
SFC TEMPS W/FREEZING RAIN EVENTS AS IT/S LAND SURFACE MODEL DOES NOT
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATENT HEAT RELEASED BY FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...
EVEN IF THE ETA WERE 6 DEG F TOO COLD...MANY AREAS WOULD STILL SEE
SIG FREEZING RAIN TMRW. ALSO...NOW THAT MOST OF THE CWA HAS SEEN AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SLEET...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW MIX IN THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...I DON/T SEE FREEZING RAIN WARMING THE
BNDRY LAYER AS MUCH AS IT USUALLY DOES. IN OTHER WORDS...THE ETA
MIGHT BE CLOSE TO RIGHT. THE SECOND POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS "WARM RAIN".
SINCE H8 TEMPS ARE SO WARM TMRW...THIS TOO COULD WARM THE LLVL COLD
POOL MORE THAN ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE ETA CONTINUES TO HAVE LLVL
CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW. ONLY ARES OF STRONG 1000-950 MB WAA ARE
E OF THE CWA. INDEED...THOUGH THE PARENT SFC HIGH IS GETTING A LITTLE
FAR N...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CONNECTION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE CAD
REGION OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WL EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE NC MTNS. COLD LAYER...WHILE STRONGLY
FORCED...WL BECOME QUITE SHALLOW TMRW AND I THINK WE CAN LET THE MTNS
GO.

WL MENTION ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH...AND UP TO
1/2 INCH IN PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS IN PIEDMONT. TOUGH TO SAY WHEN
THE HEAVIEST PCPN WL BEGIN. THE GFS NEVER REALLY ENDS PCPN AS IT
KEEPS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACTIVE ALL NIGHT. ETA HAS MORE OF A
BREAK IN PCPN...WITH LLVL DOWNGLIDE STARTING NOW THROUGH ABOUT 15
UTC WHEN FZRA RAPIDLY REENTERS CWA. REGARDLESS...LIGHT FZDZ/FZRA
AND IP WL PERSIST ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE CAD REGION AND WL TAPER OFF
POPS...BUT WL NOT END PCPN.

MONDAY/S EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES THAT TODAY/S EVENT. AT LEAST MOST FOLKS WL BE AT HOME
AS ROADS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ARE BASICALLY IMPASSABLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 21 31 34 46 / 80 90 40 10
AND 24 31 35 47 / 80 90 30 10
CLT 19 30 32 45 / 90 90 70 10
HKY 17 31 33 42 / 90 90 60 10
AVL 24 34 33 41 / 80 70 20 20
&&

[Dan]

SF, what are the soundings for Greensboro and Hickory (if Hickory has one)?

Those soundings would better represent me for tomorrow?

[Stormsfury]

SF, what are the soundings for Greensboro and Hickory (if Hickory has one)?

Those soundings would better represent me for tomorrow?

Here you go ... Hickory, NC (warm nose at 850mb and 780mb)

[Nov1950]

Raysum wrote

The latest GSP discussion....WSW all day tomorrow

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE ZONES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST ETA AND GFS DEVELOP FRONTAL WAVE WHICH RIDES UP THE SE COAST
ON MON. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER WEST
W/THIS FEATURE...AND THE ETA NOW HAS OVER AN INCH OF PCPN ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA MON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER E...BUT BRINGS
SIG PCPN TO JUST ABOUT ALL THE CWA E OF THE MTNS. CONSIDERING THE
HGHT FALLS TALKING PLACE NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE MODEL/S
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST...IT LOOKS LIKE A SIG PCPN EVENT ACROSS
THE CWA TMRW.

THIS IS NOT GOOD. THE ETA IS ADVERTISING SFC TEMPS TO RISE NO
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 27 DEG F TOMORROW DURING THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST PCPN. THE OPERATIONAL ETA HAS A KNOWN COLD BIAS WITH .......................

Not exactly what I was wanting to hear. Sounds like I need to buckle up.

[Weather4Life23]

NWS says that the northeast piedmont will changeover to rain late in the afternoon tomorrow thus limiting freezing rain acretion.