Updated Forecast N VA/MD/NJ/NYC

[Stormchaser16]

Diso: Well I am so conufsed as to whether or not the 18Z cycle will be correct. The 18Z Eta and Eta of last few runs have been OFF with the Uvv and precip shields in respect to current radar patterns. The 18Z Eta shows the precip shield hitting a WALL north of Phl. This is something we have not seen with other runs and it warrants objection. The GFS has been pretty consistent yet I think it may be a little dry with the first event. (This diso is only for the first event BTW). I really wanted to wait for the 0Z models, but I am pretty pressed for time right now and feel an update is warranted. With that said:

Forecast amounts by area Initial overunning shield:
N Va: 6-12 Inches for N Va.

MD: A general 6-10" as well for areas around NVA (Dc-Balt)

NJ: 4-8" for SNJ including the PHL area (closer to 6-8" though)

CNJ: 3-6"

NNJ(including NYC): 2-4"

[Stormchaser16]

http://community.webshots.com/photo/113 ... 0326WpQAEc



Northern end of the 3-6" area is actually 2-4", with the 1-3" area really being 1-2"

[Stormchaser16]

CANCEL anything over 4-5" North of PHL........ 2-4" for CNJ, 4-8" in the city, maybe 1-2" for NNJ out of the first event at best....

Stick a fork in this one, its done

[Chris the Weather Man]

Is there a chance of seeing 10+ inches west of NYC?

[thstorm87]

no more then 4 or 5 north of philly, how much do you think will fall right in the city of phidelphia?

[Stormchaser16]

I think PHL proper will see 3-6" or 4-8"

[DCP]

The DC area will be lucky to see more than 2 inches. Anyone can see this just by looking at the radar. The back edge of the precip shield will be moving through by 11pm. DC will get the shaft again. It is now our winter.

[Lowpressure]

I already have my 2 inches of snow and it is still coming down pretty hard.

[TBird]

The DC area will be lucky to see more than 2 inches. Anyone can see this just by looking at the radar. The back edge of the precip shield will be moving through by 11pm. DC will get the shaft again. It is now our winter.

I dunno about that. It's still coming down very hard in Warrenton and we still have plenty of snow to come so says the radar. We are 50 miles out, so I figure you all have at least an extra hour after us.


10 pm in Warrenton. Snow is heavy, 15 degrees, about 3 inches on the ground already

[DCP]

You got another hour, maybe 2 tops, of snow, so enjoy it. Maybe tack on another inch if you're lucky. The big effect of this thing ending early is that it will give road crews plenty of time to clear the roadds by tomorrow morning. I doubt the federal government will be closed. Schools maybe more likely, but you never know.

[TBird]

You got another hour, maybe 2 tops, of snow, so enjoy it. Maybe tack on another inch if you're lucky. The big effect of this thing ending early is that it will give road crews plenty of time to clear the roadds by tomorrow morning. I doubt the federal government will be closed. Schools maybe more likely, but you never know.

Many systems already closed--still waiting for word from the bigger ones--Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Fauquier. All smaller ones in Va have already announced closed (Alexandria, Manassas, etc.)

Personally, I think they will all be closed, ESPECIALLY after that recent bad call.