February: Big Snows Return to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

[donsutherland1]

In the Northeastern U.S., January 2004 has proved to be memorable in terms of the severe cold that resulted. Moreover, the overall <b>ideas</b> concerning the month fared generally well as to how the month would evolve.

At this point, based on a combination of a review of past years in which the synoptic patterns were similar to this year, the ensemble forecasts for the major teleconnection indices, and expected developments with respect to the QBO (should turn West at some point in February) and possible development of a weak to borderline El Nino, particularly in Region 3.4, February looks to be an exciting month for a larger part of the East.

Unlike with January where the extreme cold (4 subzero days in Boston) provided the meteorological fireworks, February looks to see snowfall provide the monthly highlights as temperatures are far more temperate relative to norms.

<b>Past History:</b>

As we head toward February, I also recall the historical snowfall experience with respect to winters in which December proved especially snowy or there was an early-season significant snowfall (on or before December 7).

With respect to early-season significant snowfall, all six previous seasons saw New York City receive more than 30” of snow with an average of 44.0”. In Washington, DC in 3 of those four winters, the city saw more than 25”.

In years in which December saw 12” or more in either Boston or New York City:

• 14/22 (63.6%) seasons saw more than 50” for the season and 17/22 (77.3%) saw more than 45” for the season in Boston.
• 14/15 (93.3%) seasons saw 30” or more for the season in New York City. The average came to 44.7%. Lowest: 28.7”; Highest: 63.2”.

In winters in which Washington, DC received 6” or more snow in December, New York City and Boston received 12” or more, snowfall averages came to:

Boston: 52.4” (least: 44.9”)
New York City: 44.7” (least: 31.4”)
Philadelphia: 37.2” (least: 18.6”)
Washington, DC: 34.3 (least: 21.6”)

As of January 21, snowfall totals in select cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast included:

Boston: 24.9”
Baltimore: 10.4”
New York City: 26.8”
Newark: 25.1”
Philadelphia: 8.6”
Providence: 27.5”
Washington, DC: 6.8”

As one can see, for the historical experience to hold true, considerably more snow will be required, especially in Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC.

A closer look at the historical experience reveals that odds favor a snowy February. Such odds are even higher following a January with normal to less than normal snowfall.

<b>February 2004: The Big Snows Return to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast:</b>

Based on a combination of the factors mentioned early on, it appears that February will see above to much above normal snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Odds are especially high from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward.

Moreover, it is likely that a significant portion of the snowfall could result from a major snowstorm (10” or more in the Mid-Atlantic/12” or more in the Northeast). Odds of such a storm substantially higher than climatological norms.

On a scale of 0/virtually no chance to 1/virtually certain, the select major cities received the following scores from my review of past patterns:

Boston: 0.79
Baltimore: 0.79
New York City: 0.79
Newark: 0.79
Philadelphia: 0.79
Providence: 0.79
Richmond: 0.29
Washington, DC: 0.71

With respect to Richmond, the score with respect to seeing at least a 6” snowstorm (whether or not a changeover occurs) came to 0.71.

The most likely timing for such a major snowstorm appeared to lie in the February 3-February 20 timeframe with odds somewhat in favor of the February 10-20 period.

There is one caveat. I recognize that some of this information, particularly the timing might be in conflict with the anticipated MJO activity. However, given the past analogs and historical experience, not to mention that the MJO is not a perfect timing tool, my confidence in such a storm occurring in February is high and with respect to its timing is moderate. My confidence in above to much above normal snowfall in this region during February is also high.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region:</b>

<b>February 1-7:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>February 8-14:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.
<b>February 15-21:</b> Near normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
<b>February 22-29:</b> Normal to above normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.

All said, expect near normal monthly readings in this region with normal to above normal precipitation.

<b>Nationwide Summary for February:</b>

Some greater detail for some of the other regions, particularly with respect to possible highlights will be provided in a later post in the next day or so.

<b>Central Plains:</b> Below normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>Mid-Atlantic:</b> Below normal temperatures; Above to much above normal precipitation.
<b>Northeast: </b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to somewhat above normal precipitation.
<b>Northern Plains:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Ohio Valley: </b>Below normal to near normal temperatures; near normal precipitation.
<b>Pacific Northwest:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Southern Plains:</b> Much below normal to below normal temperatures; Above to much above normal precipitation.
<b>Southeast:</b> Near normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.
<b>Southwest: </b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.

Possible predominant storm track: Eastern Texas/Louisiana to somewhere between Cape Hatteras and the Virginia Capes but at least one important storm up the Coast.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Awesome Post, Don.... Larry C. Is saying that a Very active week next week! with a Big storm possible. what are your thoughts?

[Stephanie]

Sounds good Don! It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.

[BritBob]

Thanks Don, that was good reading.

[Anonymous]

Great analysis Don!


Watch out Northeast, You are about to get BURIED!!

Mid Atlantic from DC south-------I give you a 50/50 chance. Remember the North trends all winter though. We will likely be missed or the tracks displaced north so VA gets rain or slop to rain or just plain slop.


-JEB

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

I believe that from this point in time, things look good for the possibility of a significant winter storm somewhere in the January 30-February 1 timeframe. Details as to whom might receive all snow vs. snow and ice vs. snow to rain, etc. remain to be determined.

First, the NAO is likely to be strongly negative even as the PNA is strongly negative.

<img src="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif">

Second, the blocking suggested by the ensembles is not just a forecast so to speak. It is actually evolving:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=183503">

Not surprisingly, the latest run of the European Model has picked up on this and is starkly different in the longer range from yesterday's run:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=185053">

Notice also the ridge in the southern Atlantic. While many times such a ridge could be the proverbial "kiss of death," in this depiction it is far from the "wicked ridge of the Southeast." Rather it helps turn any storms northward and helps pump moisture into such systems.

Where the storm turns is a detail to be determined later. For now, the possibility of an important winter storm during the January 30-February 1 timeframe is a very real prospect.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Stephanie, Bob, and Jeb.

Let's see how things work out. Hopefully, everyone from the lower Mid-Atlantic to Atlantic Canada will enjoy a bountiful harvest of snow.

[JCT777]

Excellent post Don! I think it is going to be very interesting for winter-weather lovers (like myself) over the next 6 weeks.

[FLguy]

In the Northeastern U.S., January 2004 has proved to be memorable in terms of the severe cold that resulted. Moreover, the overall <b>ideas</b> concerning the month fared generally well as to how the month would evolve.

At this point, based on a combination of a review of past years in which the synoptic patterns were similar to this year, the ensemble forecasts for the major teleconnection indices, and expected developments with respect to the QBO (should turn West at some point in February) and possible development of a weak to borderline El Nino, particularly in Region 3.4, February looks to be an exciting month for a larger part of the East.

Unlike with January where the extreme cold (4 subzero days in Boston) provided the meteorological fireworks, February looks to see snowfall provide the monthly highlights as temperatures are far more temperate relative to norms.

<b>Past History:</b>

As we head toward February, I also recall the historical snowfall experience with respect to winters in which December proved especially snowy or there was an early-season significant snowfall (on or before December 7).

With respect to early-season significant snowfall, all six previous seasons saw New York City receive more than 30” of snow with an average of 44.0”. In Washington, DC in 3 of those four winters, the city saw more than 25”.

In years in which December saw 12” or more in either Boston or New York City:

• 14/22 (63.6%) seasons saw more than 50” for the season and 17/22 (77.3%) saw more than 45” for the season in Boston.
• 14/15 (93.3%) seasons saw 30” or more for the season in New York City. The average came to 44.7%. Lowest: 28.7”; Highest: 63.2”.

In winters in which Washington, DC received 6” or more snow in December, New York City and Boston received 12” or more, snowfall averages came to:

Boston: 52.4” (least: 44.9”)
New York City: 44.7” (least: 31.4”)
Philadelphia: 37.2” (least: 18.6”)
Washington, DC: 34.3 (least: 21.6”)

As of January 21, snowfall totals in select cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast included:

Boston: 24.9”
Baltimore: 10.4”
New York City: 26.8”
Newark: 25.1”
Philadelphia: 8.6”
Providence: 27.5”
Washington, DC: 6.8”

As one can see, for the historical experience to hold true, considerably more snow will be required, especially in Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC.

A closer look at the historical experience reveals that odds favor a snowy February. Such odds are even higher following a January with normal to less than normal snowfall.

<b>February 2004: The Big Snows Return to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast:</b>

Based on a combination of the factors mentioned early on, it appears that February will see above to much above normal snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Odds are especially high from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward.

Moreover, it is likely that a significant portion of the snowfall could result from a major snowstorm (10” or more in the Mid-Atlantic/12” or more in the Northeast). Odds of such a storm substantially higher than climatological norms.

On a scale of 0/virtually no chance to 1/virtually certain, the select major cities received the following scores from my review of past patterns:

Boston: 0.79
Baltimore: 0.79
New York City: 0.79
Newark: 0.79
Philadelphia: 0.79
Providence: 0.79
Richmond: 0.29
Washington, DC: 0.71

With respect to Richmond, the score with respect to seeing at least a 6” snowstorm (whether or not a changeover occurs) came to 0.71.

The most likely timing for such a major snowstorm appeared to lie in the February 3-February 20 timeframe with odds somewhat in favor of the February 10-20 period.

There is one caveat. I recognize that some of this information, particularly the timing might be in conflict with the anticipated MJO activity. However, given the past analogs and historical experience, not to mention that the MJO is not a perfect timing tool, my confidence in such a storm occurring in February is high and with respect to its timing is moderate. My confidence in above to much above normal snowfall in this region during February is also high.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region:</b>

<b>February 1-7:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>February 8-14:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.
<b>February 15-21:</b> Near normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
<b>February 22-29:</b> Normal to above normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.

All said, expect near normal monthly readings in this region with normal to above normal precipitation.

<b>Nationwide Summary for February:</b>

Some greater detail for some of the other regions, particularly with respect to possible highlights will be provided in a later post in the next day or so.

<b>Central Plains:</b> Below normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>Mid-Atlantic:</b> Below normal temperatures; Above to much above normal precipitation.
<b>Northeast: </b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to somewhat above normal precipitation.
<b>Northern Plains:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Ohio Valley: </b>Below normal to near normal temperatures; near normal precipitation.
<b>Pacific Northwest:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Southern Plains:</b> Much below normal to below normal temperatures; Above to much above normal precipitation.
<b>Southeast:</b> Near normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.
<b>Southwest: </b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.

Possible predominant storm track: Eastern Texas/Louisiana to somewhere between Cape Hatteras and the Virginia Capes but at least one important storm up the Coast.

agreed for the most part, and nice post. the NAO however if remaining strongly negative through much of february would argue for below normal temps throughout much of the month in the DCA to BOX corridor.

[donsutherland1]

FLguy,

I fully agree that if the NAO remains strongly negative through much of February, readings from Washington, DC to Boston will average below normal. We'll see what happens, as things might be trending in that direction.

[donsutherland1]

Although I believe the region will see below normal to near normal readings and near normal precipitation, I believe February could be memorable for the Ohio Valley due to extreme cold at the start of the month.

In fact, there is a higher than climatological risk of subzero cold occurring during the February 1-10 period in such cities as Columbus and Indianapolis.

I would not be surprised to see a low of between -9F and -4F in Columbus and -12F to -7F in Indianapolis. Computer guidance is backing up this idea found in the analogs. Hence, confidence in the extreme cold is high and these figures offer an idea of what I believe could be possible at the worst of the cold. Moreover, I believe either city could wind up with 2 to perhaps 3 subzero minimum temperatures before the extreme cold breaks.

In terms of snowfall, look for frequent light snowfalls with the risk of a significant snowfall occurring mainly in the February 1-12 period. Toward the end of the month, even as readings are likely to become warmer than normal, there is an analog that points to a moderate snowfall. While that is probably unlikely, one should not rule out the possibility during the transition to milder readings.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Ohio Valley:</b>

<b>February 1-7:</b> Much below normal to below normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>February 8-14:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>February 15-21:</b> Below normal to near normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
<b>February 22-29:</b> Above normal normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.

All said, expect below normal to near normal monthly readings in this region with normal precipitation.