Hello folks, it's a cool morning here in N VA today.
Yesterday's high was 54 before a cold front passed through, dropping our overnight low to 24 degrees with a 13 degree dewpoint.
This morning at 11am its 32 degrees, with bands of cirrus and cirrostratus spreading across the skies from the west. We should top out near 40 degrees this afternoon.
I will keep you updated on current conditions throughout the day. This clipper will not dump a lot of snow here where I live, but watch out in New Jersey where more than 8 inches may pile up in the sweet spot.
-JEB
Woodbridge Snow Thread (Jan 14/15)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Anonymous
230pm in NVA.......................
Okay folks here's the scoop:
Check out this radar.
You can see that the system is clearly tracking well to our north, as progged per the models. That northern trend was no hiccup.
The southern extent of the precip is well to our north, DC may get clipped. Balto could pick up a quick inch/2 inches.
Local conds:
Mostly clear, few high cirrus. Clouds have decreased over the past 3-4 hours. This would indicate to me, that most of the moisture is well to our north and will likely stay there.
Temps are 35 degrees, dewpoint 15, winds SW at 6 gusts to 17mph.
Here is the exclusive Jebcast Weatherplex forecast for Woodbridge and vicinity.................
Increasing clouds through the balance of the afternoon, highs near 37 degrees. Winds SW at 5 to 15 mph. Tonight, I put in a 40% chc for flurries in the FA. Possible coating, but up to an inch north toward DC. Low in the 20s. Tomorrow, increasing N winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35mph. Partly cloudy and cold, highs near 32, lows near 10.
That's pretty much it folks. C PA is already getting blasted with snow, and the precip shield is well to our north. We are still in brilliant sunshine with a few feathery cirrus overhead.
We'll see a flurry or two tops from this, the system is definately well north of Woodbridge, even DC will be hard-pressed to eke out a half-inch to an inch at most.
I will be issuing continuing updates through the afternoon and evening (yawn).
Promise me you all won't fall asleep reading this lol!!!
Don't let your head fall forward onto your keyboard; it'll do a number to your keys lol.
-JEB
Okay folks here's the scoop:
Check out this radar.
You can see that the system is clearly tracking well to our north, as progged per the models. That northern trend was no hiccup.
The southern extent of the precip is well to our north, DC may get clipped. Balto could pick up a quick inch/2 inches.
Local conds:
Mostly clear, few high cirrus. Clouds have decreased over the past 3-4 hours. This would indicate to me, that most of the moisture is well to our north and will likely stay there.
Temps are 35 degrees, dewpoint 15, winds SW at 6 gusts to 17mph.
Here is the exclusive Jebcast Weatherplex forecast for Woodbridge and vicinity.................
Increasing clouds through the balance of the afternoon, highs near 37 degrees. Winds SW at 5 to 15 mph. Tonight, I put in a 40% chc for flurries in the FA. Possible coating, but up to an inch north toward DC. Low in the 20s. Tomorrow, increasing N winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35mph. Partly cloudy and cold, highs near 32, lows near 10.
That's pretty much it folks. C PA is already getting blasted with snow, and the precip shield is well to our north. We are still in brilliant sunshine with a few feathery cirrus overhead.
We'll see a flurry or two tops from this, the system is definately well north of Woodbridge, even DC will be hard-pressed to eke out a half-inch to an inch at most.
I will be issuing continuing updates through the afternoon and evening (yawn).
Promise me you all won't fall asleep reading this lol!!!
Don't let your head fall forward onto your keyboard; it'll do a number to your keys lol.
-JEB
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Anonymous
JCT777 wrote:Sorry to hear you will be missing out on the snow Jeb. I just want the precip to make it over the mountains without falling apart.
That's cool, JCT, it gladdens my heart to realize some folks will get snow tonight!
ENJOY THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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wrkh99
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Lowpressure
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Anonymous
Hmmmm..............I just took a look at that radar and I just realized something...................the precip shield is moving SE. Its south extent is now also at the same latitude as my location!
I wonder if we might get some of this here?
Okay folks, I am ON this radar all night long!!!!
NO SLEEP TIL BROOKLYN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
C'MON sweet snows!!! Move southeast !!!!!!! C'mon baby!!!! Come on home to Jeb's neighborhood!!!! And Fredericksburg too!!!!
Who knows? We could get 100 flurries instead of only a couple!!! LOL!!
-JEB
I wonder if we might get some of this here?
Okay folks, I am ON this radar all night long!!!!
NO SLEEP TIL BROOKLYN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
C'MON sweet snows!!! Move southeast !!!!!!! C'mon baby!!!! Come on home to Jeb's neighborhood!!!! And Fredericksburg too!!!!
Who knows? We could get 100 flurries instead of only a couple!!! LOL!!
-JEB
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Anonymous
4PM Update..................
Okay folks we are getting into showtime with this event. Forget the SR mods.......
Radar trends are king now. Don't forget the storm track either.
I still think the models are right on track with this.
Current radar trends show an ESE track of precip, admittedly toward the FA, but remember we still have dewpoints of 19 degrees. That atmosphere is dry..........but I have noticed the DPs going up in the last 3 hours.
Temperature is 31 degrees. It's been falling for the past 2 to 3 hours------can't imagine why, its too early for that yet. Winds are variable at 5 to 11 mph. Our high was 36. Why the hell is that temp falling so fast? It's not the time of day for it, sure its late afternoon, but it doesn't fall that fast until after sunset. What gives? Pressure is 29.90 and falling.
Sky conditions-----Cirrostratus deck is thickening......darker clouds can be seen to west.
Will keep a chc of flurries in our local forecast, possibly a coating. Will not increase precip expectations for fcst in local region because of dry air issues, considerable moisture needed to moisten the column IF the snow does overspread Woodbridge, and that is a big IF.
I'll be updating all evening. Watch out tonight all across N VA because temps are falling fast for this time in the late afternoon, and ground temps are cold; soil is frozen, roads are cold enough to support snow accums. IF atmosphere does manage to moisten, any snow however light WILL slicken roads tonight, especially in light of impending loss of solar insolation.
-JEB
Okay folks we are getting into showtime with this event. Forget the SR mods.......
Radar trends are king now. Don't forget the storm track either.
I still think the models are right on track with this.
Current radar trends show an ESE track of precip, admittedly toward the FA, but remember we still have dewpoints of 19 degrees. That atmosphere is dry..........but I have noticed the DPs going up in the last 3 hours.
Temperature is 31 degrees. It's been falling for the past 2 to 3 hours------can't imagine why, its too early for that yet. Winds are variable at 5 to 11 mph. Our high was 36. Why the hell is that temp falling so fast? It's not the time of day for it, sure its late afternoon, but it doesn't fall that fast until after sunset. What gives? Pressure is 29.90 and falling.
Sky conditions-----Cirrostratus deck is thickening......darker clouds can be seen to west.
Will keep a chc of flurries in our local forecast, possibly a coating. Will not increase precip expectations for fcst in local region because of dry air issues, considerable moisture needed to moisten the column IF the snow does overspread Woodbridge, and that is a big IF.
I'll be updating all evening. Watch out tonight all across N VA because temps are falling fast for this time in the late afternoon, and ground temps are cold; soil is frozen, roads are cold enough to support snow accums. IF atmosphere does manage to moisten, any snow however light WILL slicken roads tonight, especially in light of impending loss of solar insolation.
-JEB
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
550pm here........
Partly cloudy skies with altocumulus moving from the NW, but low cumulus moving from the south.
Temps are falling. It's 28 degrees with dewpoints near 19 degrees. Winds are variable at 10mph.
I was looking at the radar and I noticed the snow inching south but moving more east than south, but it is trying ever so hard to make it just a few more miles south.
You know folks, it is heartbreaking, being this close, and watching the temps fall so very fast, with the snow only about 60 miles away. Really tough.
We're crossing our fingers and holding our breath, hoping for a flurry or two, but at this rate if I keep holding my breath someone will definately have to call in the paramedics LOL!!!!!
I'll be manning the radars all evening and doing my best snow dance.
Temps are falling nicely----------But I wish the flakes were falling with them LOL!
All you lucky dogs up in PA-------
ENJOY ALL THAT HEAVY SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW!!! 7 INCHES!!!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Partly cloudy skies with altocumulus moving from the NW, but low cumulus moving from the south.
Temps are falling. It's 28 degrees with dewpoints near 19 degrees. Winds are variable at 10mph.
I was looking at the radar and I noticed the snow inching south but moving more east than south, but it is trying ever so hard to make it just a few more miles south.
You know folks, it is heartbreaking, being this close, and watching the temps fall so very fast, with the snow only about 60 miles away. Really tough.
We're crossing our fingers and holding our breath, hoping for a flurry or two, but at this rate if I keep holding my breath someone will definately have to call in the paramedics LOL!!!!!
I'll be manning the radars all evening and doing my best snow dance.
Temps are falling nicely----------But I wish the flakes were falling with them LOL!
All you lucky dogs up in PA-------
ENJOY ALL THAT HEAVY SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW!!! 7 INCHES!!!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
Coming up on 930pm.................
Skies are cloudy, temperature is 28 degrees, dewpoint is 23 degrees, dewpoints have been rising. Winds are variable 5 to 12 mph. Pressure is 29.72 and falling.
If you check out the radar, you will see that Pennsylvania is getting clocked very hard with snow, especially when you consider that this is a mere clipper, not some potent southern-stream storm with a GOM feed that will tap the Atlantic as well. It appears that some snow may actually reach parts of northern Virginia, to my utter shock and surprise.
We do not yet have snow here, but the dewpoints are rising; they are now within 5 degrees of the ambient sfc air temperature. Could be the column is getting moistened up a hell of a lot faster than I earlier had anticipated.
Still, I am sticking by my guns:
Flurries, with a coating. This clipper is starved for moisture and limping along. We are at the very edge of it, and not progged to get much if any snow from it. The only reason this clipper is noteworthy at all is because it will eventually draw south some of the coldest air ever experienced in years, if not decades, and because it will literally explode off the coast and metamorphose overnight into a huge ocean storm.
I will be monitoring our admittedly boring Virginia weather all evening; I would be very surprised indeed if any of you, long before you have even finished reading this filler, have not already fallen sound asleep, with your forehead crashing into your keyboard and you're still sound asleep lol!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Skies are cloudy, temperature is 28 degrees, dewpoint is 23 degrees, dewpoints have been rising. Winds are variable 5 to 12 mph. Pressure is 29.72 and falling.
If you check out the radar, you will see that Pennsylvania is getting clocked very hard with snow, especially when you consider that this is a mere clipper, not some potent southern-stream storm with a GOM feed that will tap the Atlantic as well. It appears that some snow may actually reach parts of northern Virginia, to my utter shock and surprise.
We do not yet have snow here, but the dewpoints are rising; they are now within 5 degrees of the ambient sfc air temperature. Could be the column is getting moistened up a hell of a lot faster than I earlier had anticipated.
Still, I am sticking by my guns:
Flurries, with a coating. This clipper is starved for moisture and limping along. We are at the very edge of it, and not progged to get much if any snow from it. The only reason this clipper is noteworthy at all is because it will eventually draw south some of the coldest air ever experienced in years, if not decades, and because it will literally explode off the coast and metamorphose overnight into a huge ocean storm.
I will be monitoring our admittedly boring Virginia weather all evening; I would be very surprised indeed if any of you, long before you have even finished reading this filler, have not already fallen sound asleep, with your forehead crashing into your keyboard and you're still sound asleep lol!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
11:30 pm here................
Temps have risen to 29 degrees here as of 1130pm..............
The radar shows the snow within 10 to 20 miles from Woodbridge. Dewpoints are up to 26 degrees, within 3 degrees of the ambient temps. Relative humidity is 86 percent. Can we say the column is getting moistened up?
That snow is so close, it hurts.
The pressure is down to 29.65 and falling. Winds are light SSE. No snow yet, but it is tantalizingly CLOSE.
I really HOPE we at least get a coating here, but it is getting kind of late in this event and the back edge of the event can now be seen on radar.
OUCH that smarts. I've never endured such a near miss before. Only ten to twenty miles away.............
Might do one more update before hitting that rack.................
Those of you getting the snow, ENJOY IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Temps have risen to 29 degrees here as of 1130pm..............
The radar shows the snow within 10 to 20 miles from Woodbridge. Dewpoints are up to 26 degrees, within 3 degrees of the ambient temps. Relative humidity is 86 percent. Can we say the column is getting moistened up?
That snow is so close, it hurts.
The pressure is down to 29.65 and falling. Winds are light SSE. No snow yet, but it is tantalizingly CLOSE.
I really HOPE we at least get a coating here, but it is getting kind of late in this event and the back edge of the event can now be seen on radar.
OUCH that smarts. I've never endured such a near miss before. Only ten to twenty miles away.............
Might do one more update before hitting that rack.................
Those of you getting the snow, ENJOY IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
RU848789 wrote:Jeb - how can you go to sleep with the snow so close? Hope you get at least some. Looks like we might be in the bullseye on this one, at least for NJ. 2.5" already and hopefully another 2-4" to go.
I don't know--------maybe I'll just stay up. But that darn snow is having a hard time moving south to fall over me. Boy I want it so bad. So bad!!!!
Of all shafts, a near-miss is one of the most painful. Our T/D spread is only by four degrees, 30/26 degrees.
To think that those precious flurries are only a scant 10 to 20 miles from me............................. OUCH! OUCH! OUCH! OUCH! OUCH! OUCH!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR BLAST JEB!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!! NO MERCY!!!!!
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Anonymous
1245am here.......................
Temp is 30 degrees, the dewpoint is 27 degrees and I have seen three very small snow grains. I saw them fall and they are there on my trash can next to the back door.
The radar shows that snow only about three miles from yours truly. The temp and the DP are now only 3 degrees apart----no wonder we can see these real tiny snow grains with such lame radar returns. Relative humidity is 87 percent. Barometric pressure is 29.59 and falling fairly fast. Winds are very light and variable.
Let's hope and pray for a coating-------the back edge of this storm is closing in fast and furious.
I am thankful I did see those three small snow grains! So it wasn't a total near-miss for me---I did get to enjoy a few snow grains! Now, if we could but get perhaps a few million more of those snow grains, maybe there would be a coating of snow on the ground and on the car by sunup.
I can only hope.
EDIT!!!! 1AM!! A graupel -type snow is falling. I counted 94 graupel snow grains on my trash can!! Man are they the most beautiful thing I have ever seen!!!! WOOOO-HOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Some of these graupel-like snow pellets are nearly an eighth of an inch across!!!! WOW! WOW!! Oh PLEASE keep falling snow!!!!!
This will probably be Jeb's last transmission tonight.
This is Jeb, reporting from Woodbridge/Dale City VA, on the very edge of the Jan 14/15 Clipper Event. Take care everybody, enjoy all that fresh fluffy snow, and have an excellent night!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR EXPRESS JEB!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Temp is 30 degrees, the dewpoint is 27 degrees and I have seen three very small snow grains. I saw them fall and they are there on my trash can next to the back door.
The radar shows that snow only about three miles from yours truly. The temp and the DP are now only 3 degrees apart----no wonder we can see these real tiny snow grains with such lame radar returns. Relative humidity is 87 percent. Barometric pressure is 29.59 and falling fairly fast. Winds are very light and variable.
Let's hope and pray for a coating-------the back edge of this storm is closing in fast and furious.
I am thankful I did see those three small snow grains!
So it wasn't a total near-miss for me---I did get to enjoy a few snow grains! Now, if we could but get perhaps a few million more of those snow grains, maybe there would be a coating of snow on the ground and on the car by sunup.
I can only hope.
EDIT!!!! 1AM!! A graupel -type snow is falling. I counted 94 graupel snow grains on my trash can!! Man are they the most beautiful thing I have ever seen!!!! WOOOO-HOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some of these graupel-like snow pellets are nearly an eighth of an inch across!!!! WOW! WOW!! Oh PLEASE keep falling snow!!!!!
This will probably be Jeb's last transmission tonight.
This is Jeb, reporting from Woodbridge/Dale City VA, on the very edge of the Jan 14/15 Clipper Event. Take care everybody, enjoy all that fresh fluffy snow, and have an excellent night!
-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR EXPRESS JEB!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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