Well, it seems for once, being a mile from the coast in Monmouth Co. will have its benefits. Radio/TV seem to be implying somewhere between 4-6" for the jersey shore, with mt holly going the usually conservative 3-4" route (while OKX has 3-5" in city...go figure). A quick glance at ETA and GFS this AM show that this storm is still on track producing around 0.30" qpf w/ 850's between -10 and -15 during the precip in my area with around 20:1 ratios. I wouldn't be surprised to see locally higher than 6" amounts in E NJ from this storm, but that is asking alot of a clipper system. The key is how close to the coast the rapid deepening of the low occurs. AM models depict it just close enough to give a little more precip to shore points, altho still far enough away to have only a minor effect.
So, to be safe still going w/ 4-6" for Jersey shore (altho models argue for potentially a little more w/ ratios/possible coastal development)
Morning thoughts from the Jersey Shore
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