Why does NWS classify this as a *Weak* system

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jaysonx
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Why does NWS classify this as a *Weak* system

#1 Postby jaysonx » Tue Jan 13, 2004 11:36 pm

THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK INLAND SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK, ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE FOUR OR FIVE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.


Wouldn't 4 to 5 inches of snowfall be considered moderate snow? IMHO a WEAK system would be like 2 inches :\
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Re: Why does NWS classify this as a *Weak* system

#2 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 11:38 pm

jaysonx wrote:
THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK INLAND SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK, ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE FOUR OR FIVE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.


Wouldn't 4 to 5 inches of snowfall be considered moderate snow? IMHO a WEAK system would be like 2 inches :\




That may be a relative term, when you consider the climo for different regions..........



-JEB
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#3 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 13, 2004 11:38 pm

In my neck of the woods, when 4, 5 " of snow is expected, it becomes a "major" system, or what is commonly called by some of the TV mets as a "plowable" snow.
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Re: Why does NWS classify this as a *Weak* system

#4 Postby blueapple » Tue Jan 13, 2004 11:54 pm

jaysonx wrote:
THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK INLAND SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK, ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE FOUR OR FIVE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.


Wouldn't 4 to 5 inches of snowfall be considered moderate snow? IMHO a WEAK system would be like 2 inches :\

It's a moisture starved system coming from the canadian plains into cold, dry air. The reason why NJ is going to get that four or five inches is that the loq will pick up moisture from the atlantic.
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#5 Postby cloudtoground2004 » Wed Jan 14, 2004 12:00 am

Lake and ocean enhancements can make what would normally be a "weak" system into a more moderate or one. I grew up in Toledo, Ohio before moving out here to the plains...and every once in a great while an ENE wind off lake erie under the right circumstances would cause a greater accumulation. Once a "moisture starved" system can get its hands on some moisture...watch out :lol:
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#6 Postby JCT777 » Wed Jan 14, 2004 12:01 am

Another reason why areas will pick up 4 to as much as 6 or 7 inches of snow from this "relatively weak" system is because snow to liquid ratios will be anywhere from 15:1 to 20:1 - and maybe even higher in some cases.
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Re: Why does NWS classify this as a *Weak* system

#7 Postby WeatherGuide » Wed Jan 14, 2004 12:04 am

Jeb wrote:
jaysonx wrote:
THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK INLAND SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK, ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CURRENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE FOUR OR FIVE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.


Wouldn't 4 to 5 inches of snowfall be considered moderate snow? IMHO a WEAK system would be like 2 inches :\


That may be a relative term, when you consider the climo for different regions..........

-JEB


Jeb has a point... also consider SLP's and the moisture available to the storm.. makes it relatively weak... what is making the difference is the pressure gradient that will develop and the severity of cold..it's gonna be nasty.
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#8 Postby Squall52 » Wed Jan 14, 2004 12:14 am

I 'think' they mean relative to the SLP/strength of the system itself. Talking maybe a 996mb low once it redevelops off the coast, but well above 1000 inland. The 500mb shortwave is awful piddly as well. It's a clipper, no ifs ands or buts. That is, until it gets off the coast and becomes a 950 millibar blizzard for Newfoundland. :wink:
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#9 Postby JQ Public » Wed Jan 14, 2004 12:39 am

they system is weak...its its interaction with the high etc that will cause the winds and cold...otherwise 4 inches of snow isn't that big ig uess?
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