00z ETA

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CentralNJwx
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00z ETA

#1 Postby CentralNJwx » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:31 pm

out to hour 30 similar to 18z a bit wetter offshore, less wet in PA . Still looking on path
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Anonymous

#2 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:33 pm

STILL no trend southward that puts DCA back in the good snows? I'm officially ignoring the Eta from here on out...
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Stormchaser16
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#3 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:36 pm

LOL why just because it doesnt give you snow in YOUR backyard? pathetic
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WoodstockWX

#4 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:38 pm

00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.
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Guest

#5 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:40 pm

WoodstockWX wrote:00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.


ummm....DC gets <1" and NE CT gets 2-4"....Not according to the ETA I just looked at.......IF 00Z ETA nails it, which I doubt, then your last call map will bust badly
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:40 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:LOL why just because it doesnt give you snow in YOUR backyard? pathetic

Oh, I'm sorry... next time I'll be SURE to put massive [SARCASM] tags around posts that are meant jokingly... :roll:
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:42 pm

Let the heavy accumulating snows fall where they will, and rest assured folks that get those sweet snows......................


I will be cheering you on while you get your heavy snow!!!!!

Let's all get behind the places that get the heavy snow tomorrow and lets encourage them EVEN MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :) :) :)

The more, the MERRIER, I always say!!!!!! Heck YEAH!!!!!!!!! Give 'em 15 inches from this Clipper!!!!!! :) :) :)




All you good people that experience the sweet snows..............Live it up for the rest of us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :) :) :)

Have a Wonderful Day tomorrow and the Next Day..........because this is gonna be a great snowstorm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)


-JEB
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Stormchaser16
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#8 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:42 pm

Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur
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WoodstockWX

#9 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:43 pm

zwyts wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.


ummm....DC gets <1" and NE CT gets 2-4"....Not according to the ETA I just looked at.......IF 00Z ETA nails it, which I doubt, then your last call map will bust badly

how does my map bust?

ETA has 0.05" of precip for NE CT, and thats 1.5" with crazy ratios, and I had myself towards the top of 2-4 so I called for 2" and one run of eta says 1.5"? Not a big bust.

ETA basically verifies most of my map. The only question mark is SNE where high ratios mean I only need a little bit of precip to get the 2-4" right. (ratios 25:1 to 30:1 for CT/RI/S MASS)
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WoodstockWX

#10 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:44 pm

actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:45 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:LOL why just because it doesnt give you snow in YOUR backyard? pathetic




I'll accept the light snow, and the people who get the heavier snow, I wish all the best!! :) :) :) :)


If I get no snow, I'll accept that too. :)


Lets enjoy this system!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :) There will be others! :)





-JEB
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Anonymous

#12 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:48 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur




The models are not trending toward wetter solutions for the MA. That is cool by me. :)

Everyone that does get the snow, Have a WONDERFUL time with it!!!! :) :) :)

One flurry will be good enough for me. If I get no snow, I'll wait on the next system. :) :) :)



-JEB
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:48 pm

Jeb wrote:Lets enjoy this system!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :) There will be others! :)

Alright, I'll remember that next Monday when we're sitting in drenching rain at 34F :lol:.
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Anonymous

#14 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:49 pm

WoodstockWX wrote:
zwyts wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.


ummm....DC gets <1" and NE CT gets 2-4"....Not according to the ETA I just looked at.......IF 00Z ETA nails it, which I doubt, then your last call map will bust badly

how does my map bust?

ETA has 0.05" of precip for NE CT, and thats 1.5" with crazy ratios, and I had myself towards the top of 2-4 so I called for 2" and one run of eta says 1.5"? Not a big bust.

ETA basically verifies most of my map. The only question mark is SNE where high ratios mean I only need a little bit of precip to get the 2-4" right. (ratios 25:1 to 30:1 for CT/RI/S MASS)



Nice map, and nice forecasting.



-JEB
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Guest

#15 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:55 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur



The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....
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WoodstockWX

#16 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:57 pm

Jeb wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:
zwyts wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.


ummm....DC gets <1" and NE CT gets 2-4"....Not according to the ETA I just looked at.......IF 00Z ETA nails it, which I doubt, then your last call map will bust badly

how does my map bust?

ETA has 0.05" of precip for NE CT, and thats 1.5" with crazy ratios, and I had myself towards the top of 2-4 so I called for 2" and one run of eta says 1.5"? Not a big bust.

ETA basically verifies most of my map. The only question mark is SNE where high ratios mean I only need a little bit of precip to get the 2-4" right. (ratios 25:1 to 30:1 for CT/RI/S MASS)



Nice map, and nice forecasting.



-JEB

wow, thanks lol.
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Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:57 pm

zwyts wrote:
Stormchaser16 wrote:Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur



The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....

Very true! Hmm, it couldn't be that some Northeast residents are ignoring trends that don't favor their own backyards could it? :wink: :P
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Guest

#18 Postby Guest » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:58 pm

WoodstockWX wrote:actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.


How do 30:1 ratios do for 0.0 qpf??.....Move your map South imo
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WoodstockWX

#19 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:58 pm

zwyts wrote:
Stormchaser16 wrote:Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur



The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....

and the ETA has not budged, it has model support, the GFS bombed the last clipper for being too far south.

too many things going against the GFS forecast right now.
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WoodstockWX

#20 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Jan 13, 2004 10:00 pm

zwyts wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.


How do 30:1 ratios do for 0.0 qpf??.....Move your map South imo


eta has 0.08" here and with 30:1 thats 2.4"

look at p36 for hr48 and the .1" line just about makes it to my house.

I'm not worried at all, I'm just worried so many will bust when DCA gets an inch or possibly less.
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