No Major changes for the 'storm'

[Stormchaser16]

Am going with SREF's, ETA solution but a more modified ETA solution at this point. I dont like the idea of the phasing on the ETA although i suppose it is possible. I cannot understand why this wouldnt just be ripped apart if the ETA solution were close to being correct. The SREF's mean gives most of jersey .1-.25" however 4 of the members give NJ .25-.5 inches. My thinking in accordance with that is to go with teh middle and at a 20:1 ratio with VERY cold temperatures likely across the area. The mean would show 2-3" with the 4 members showing 5-10", therefore to split the difference, I am going with a swatch of 3-6" acrossed Central and Northern jersey with areas in WN jersey possibly seeing more. Also with this solution COASTAL areas could see more as the low gets off the coast and could throw moisture back in. Bringing amounts along the coast possibly up to 4-7". The APPS will also do very well with orographic lifting , and 6+" is NOT out of the question. This clipper looks fairly well clear cut as there should be no major obstacles except for track and a track much like the ETA/SREF's and to some extent EURO are showing. The GFS seems too far south in this situation, this is for a few reasons, as was pointed out to me, the GFS did not handle previous clippers good at all, the ETA had a MUCh better track record and there is NO reason for the GFS to be correct given the synoptics. Those expecting the heaviest snows south of PHL are going to be in for a surprise come the end of the storm.

Amounts for a few areas, feel free to ask about your area and i will answer:
PHL- 2-4"
TTN-3-6"
EWR:3-6"
HPT(High Point): 4-7"
ABE: 3-6"
ACY: 3-6"(maybe on the high side of that amount)

[WoodstockWX]

very good forecast, analysis and snowfall amounts.

[Anonymous]

We can expect a flurry to partly cloudy in N VA, right?



-JEB

[WoodstockWX]

NW NJ will have ratios in the 25:1 to 30:1 range as well, so only 0.2" pcp still means 4 to 6".

2 meter temps will be in the 0s for most of the event there.

[Colin]

Excellent forecast!

[Stormchaser16]

Yup exactly, this area has the same amount of precip as other areas but the temperatures are going to make the difference there. Also near the cosat, the QPF amts. themselves may simply be greater because of atlantic moisture getting kicked back in until the low races out to sea.

For most of NVA, a dusting to an inch is quite possible, but areas just south of extreme NVA would only likely receive a flurry.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/ ... x24_63.gif

The SREF's shows a good wide span of 2.5 inches of snowfall(based on .25" of QPF and a 10:1 ratio= 2.5"). BUT we will have 20:1 ratios in the northern areas so this means 3-6 inches is more likely. The SREF"S like i said DOES show NVA getting about an inch with areas further south maybe some flurries to a dusting.

[R0bb0871]

Stormchaser, first of, where in NW Jersey do you live? Also, how much snow are you thinking for Western Morris County, in Northwest Jersey...specifically Dover, NJ?

[Stormchaser16]

Hunterdon county to be specific. I think a general 3-6 inches is possible if you are in the western area of Morris County. It is only the highest elevations of Sussex and Warren that I believe have the potential for more, as the ratios become extreme in those locations(2M temps around 0 for those parts) with the potential for 25 or 30 to 1.

[Stormchaser16]

Forecast still looks good tonight. Eta looked pretty decent, i noted the coastal transition in another thread if you care to look over that. And the GFS has precip further north now, it looks to be catching up with the ETA, i see no reason to change course now.

[JCT777]

Stormchaser - your forecast sounds good, although I would bump PHL up to 3 to 5 inches of snow.