Last call for NE, MA and part of OV/GL

[WoodstockWX]

looks like the highest amounts should be in EC pa/south poconos and interior west central or northwest NJ.

Map is very similar to 2nd call, just ever so slightly further south, maybe 10-25 miles on average except slightly more south than that west of Pittsburgh into IN, MI and OH. Also dug a TAD deeper into the apps with snowfall.

To sum it up:

Similar totals, but this time went specific with the jackpot area instead of "general 3-6 inches but locally 4-8 inches high terrain NE PA or NW NJ"

It appears as if the jackpot area will be generally 4-7" with a couple 8" reports possible across E PA or W NJ.

NYC proper looks to be a solid 3-6" with a tad more west of town into NW NJ where temps are 5-8F cooler.

New MOS keeps extreme NW and NE CT down near zero with the snow, and it keeps ORH below zero with about 0.1" precip...
I'm thinking the 0.1" pcp line makes it as far north as the mass/ct border but ratios threw the roof...basically 20:1 average for the 4-8" zone except 25:1 or even greater across NE PA and NW NJ.

the 30:1 or even greater ratio will set up along and north of the 0F line.

Also downtown philly 3-6" with about an inch around DC.

The only bust zone I can find would be areas between WV and BWI/DCA where I may be a bit low in those high terrain locations.

General thinking is also that the 0F line marks about 24:1 ratios.

Of course...the temps I have on there are the LOWEST during falling snow.

Obviously 0F does NOT convert to 30:1 ratios as 10F does not convert to 24:1 ratios.

Just an ESTIMATE for anyone that wants to get pcp totals/ratios from melted snow.

[Guest]

Good map Quincy however i would bring everything south by about 50 to 100 miles or so then it will be perfect which i do think the 00z will show.

[Dr Spectrum]

You might want to move the image to another server since WWBB is VERY slow and I noticed that it's served from there.

[roarusdogus]

Good map Quincy however i would bring everything south by about 50 to 100 miles or so then it will be perfect which i do think the 00z will show.

What makes you think it's going to go 50-100 miles farther south than currently progged?

[Anonymous]

If this event did verify 100 miles south of map-indicated positions, I would feel much better, however I would feel bad for folks farther north who wanted snow.....................





-JEB

[WoodstockWX]

I just disagree with the GFS as the ETA/SREF are almost identicle with the jackpot central pa-central/north NJ.

Even the euro is further north than the eta but I don't use that MR model within 4 days.

For the last clipper the ETA in the 24-60 hour time frame did just fine and the GFS proved to be too far expansive in the south.

The SREF is almost identicle to the ETA and its a good short term model as DT pointed out.

The GFS has been back and forth with this while the ETA has been fairly consistent.

I'd say the ETA has 80% chance of verifying, or 4/5 times in this type of situation the ETA wins over the GFS.

Face it...nothing except "arctic air shoving the storm southward" supports the GFS.

It's just more south and you guys are up for ANOTHER dissapointment if you expect the heaviest snow south of philly, in my opinion.

[Anonymous]

Good map Q!

[2001kx]

that map puts me in the jackpot area,but i think it may be a tad to far north even if it means taking me out of the jackpot
but lets hope your map verifies....

[chadtm80]

Nice Map, Nice Call

[Guest]

I just disagree with the GFS as the ETA/SREF are almost identicle with the jackpot central pa-central/north NJ.

Even the euro is further north than the eta but I don't use that MR model within 4 days.

For the last clipper the ETA in the 24-60 hour time frame did just fine and the GFS proved to be too far expansive in the south.

The SREF is almost identicle to the ETA and its a good short term model as DT pointed out.

The GFS has been back and forth with this while the ETA has been fairly consistent.




Dude....nice map, but you're too far North.....DC proper less than an inch will bust badly....move your 1-2" cutoff down to Quantico and adjust everything else accordingly, and you will do better.....

I'd say the ETA has 80% chance of verifying, or 4/5 times in this type of situation the ETA wins over the GFS.

Face it...nothing except "arctic air shoving the storm southward" supports the GFS.

It's just more south and you guys are up for ANOTHER dissapointment if you expect the heaviest snow south of philly, in my opinion.

[WoodstockWX]

00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.

[Heady Guy]

I wonder who is posting all the to far north in the poll?

[WoodstockWX]

I wonder who is posting all the to far north in the poll?

people from DC and people who modelhug the GFS I guess.

[Heady Guy]

I am interested to see what the new GFS will say. I know NWS live & die by them.

[JCT777]

Looks good, if anything it may be a touch too far north. But otherwise very good.

[li-mike]

Great Map and I think you will verify more than not. I have a question though based on what happens when the clipper goes coastal I would start bending your Snow lines of heaviest snow to include Eastern LI based on what typically happens in these events. I am also very worried about the call for the highest snows on the Jersey shore as we have seen time and time again the dryslot set-up along the coast in that area just as the precip shield fills in right off the shore as it hits Ern LI and the Southern Mass Islands and even the cape before pulling away. Other than that stellar call and I always enjoy your Observations.

Mike