Dangerous winter storm and arctic airmass this morning

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning folks. It's been a busy night across the nation. Before I detail the winter storm, just wanted to add alittle side note regarding the temperature gradient across the Middle Atlantic states. A backdoor cold front moved through just before midnight. Philadelphia was down to abot 45, and BWI down to 43 degrees at 11 PM last night. However Annapolis, MD was 63, Thomas Point Light 62, and Salisbury 61 degrees at 11 PM last night. A bit of cold air wedging rolled in resulting in that colder air in Baltimore points north and west. The same basic pattern will be in place today for the middle atlantic with areas north of the Mason Dixon line staying mostly in the 50s today while south of the mason dixon line, around 63 in Baltimore and 68 in Washington DC. Norfolk and Richmond will reach 70-75 degrees as they will easily be in the warm sector. Just alittle side note on that.

Further west, some bigger news and dangers lie ahead for folks living say in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, most of Iowa and points north and west as snow and frigid cold are the primary stories of the day. A winter storm warning is in effect for northern Missouri, south central Iowa including Des Moines, and eastern Iowa including the Quad Cities area and Clinton, Iowa too. A heavy snow warning is in effect for Chicago today. In all these mentioned warning areas, significant snowfall is expected during the day today. Meanwhile an icestorm warning is up for Fort Wayne, Indiana and for all of northern Indiana today. Ice accumulation over 1/4 inch today could result in very hazardous travel as well as possible downed trees and powerlines. Folks in northern Indiana in isolated areas should prepare to lose power as this icestorm continues to be a major problem throughout the day today.

The culprit behind this storm system is an intensifying area of low pressure, which is expected to move across Missouri and south central Illinois today and across the Ohio Valley tonight. Areas north and west of this developing low pressure system can expect significant wintry weather conditions. This includes areas such as Chicago, Davenport, Rockford, and Des Moines. Kirksville, Joilet, and Fort Wayne are in the path of this winter storm as well. In addition to the developing low pressure system, there will be a high pressure area moving east from the rockies into the central United States. Between both the ow and the high, northerly winds are supplying a signficant cold airmass. So in addition to heavy snowfall, there will be blowing and drifting snow in places, and very dangerous wind chills both associated with the winter storm and north and west from there. I'll mention temperatures in a minute.

The snow/ice accumulations below are from this midwestern storm and it's broken down to the more significant impacted areas.

Kirksville, MO: 3-6 inches
Des Moines, IA: 3-5 inches
Quad Cities/Davenport: 6-12 inches
Clinton, IA: 4-8 inches
Rockford, IL: 7-14 inches
Chicago: 6-10 inches
Joliet: 2-4 inches of snow mixed with sleet and possible ice accumulation.
Fort Wayne: 1/4 inch of ice and maybe a light snow accumulation.

In addition to snow and ice, there is a trmendous temperature contrast going on early this morning. For example, Paducah, Kentucky is a balmy 65 degrees this morning on the 4th of January, amazing stuff. However International Falls, MN is down to 20 degrees below zero with a wind chill of -33. Duluth, MN is down to -8 with a wind chill on the shores of Lake Superior down to -19. Further west, the situation gets even worse. Williston, ND dropped to -20 this morning as of 4 am central time with a wind chill of -33. Want it even colder, how about Cut Bank, MT at 21 below with a wind chill of minus 36. The coldest spot I could find as of 3 am mountain time, 5 am eastern was a place called Havre, Montana, which sits east of Cut Bank. Havre is at minus 31 with a wind chill of 52 degrees below zero courtesy of a west wind at 8 mph. Havre may drop to -35 with 55-60 below wind chills before sunrise mountain time. That's frostbite type weather in 30 seconds time. Very dangerous conditions and a brutually cold arctic airmass in place at this point. A 1036 mb high will aid this arctic blast east and southeastward overtime eventually affecting the eastern US including the eastern seaboard over the next 24-48 hours. Get ready in the megalopolis for some sub freezing high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the teens.

Meanwhile the situation in the winter storm affected zones are not as dangerous as in the sky country of Montana and the northern plains. However with temps between 18 and 24 degrees and a strong north to northeast wind blowing between 10-20 mph with higher gusts, wind chills will drop between zero and 15 degrees below zero today and tonight from Des Moines into the Quad Cities and into the windy city of Chicago. So what I mean by not as dangerous is all relative. This is still a very dangerous situation across the midwest as heavy snow, blowing snow, and dangerous life threatening wind chills will greet you during your day. Then after the snow ends, the danger from the chill is far from over as the cold arctic air moves south and east and gets worse. By Monday morning, Chicago should drop to 5 above zero while Daveport drops to -1 and Des Moines drops to -6 degrees. A similar situation Tuesday morning after high temps on Monday only in the single digits and teens. Wind chill values during the early part of the week from Chicago to Des Moines will likely be in the zero to 25 below zero range. It gets alot worse north and west of there with -30 to -60 wind chills from Minnesota into the Dakota early in the week.

Keep an eye on the situation, we'll keep you posted on this dangerous weather situation throughout the day today. Stay tuned.

Jim

[David]

Nice evaluation...

Cold Wx north of me.. :o

Thanks for the post.

[Dave C]

As this system moves south of New England tonite colder air from High pressure building to our north will gradually change rain to ice and sleet. west and central Mass has best chance of this with NH and Vermont and Maine deep enough into colder air for substantial snows(6in.+). Conn. RI and SE Mass. should be cold rain with maybe some ice at tail end Mon morning. Advisory for possible watches and warnings later today has been issued by our local weather service. [/url]

[Anonymous]

Good morning folks. It's been a busy night across the nation. Before I detail the winter storm, just wanted to add alittle side note regarding the temperature gradient across the Middle Atlantic states. A backdoor cold front moved through just before midnight. Philadelphia was down to abot 45, and BWI down to 43 degrees at 11 PM last night. However Annapolis, MD was 63, Thomas Point Light 62, and Salisbury 61 degrees at 11 PM last night. A bit of cold air wedging rolled in resulting in that colder air in Baltimore points north and west. The same basic pattern will be in place today for the middle atlantic with areas north of the Mason Dixon line staying mostly in the 50s today while south of the mason dixon line, around 63 in Baltimore and 68 in Washington DC. Norfolk and Richmond will reach 70-75 degrees as they will easily be in the warm sector. Just alittle side note on that.

Further west, some bigger news and dangers lie ahead for folks living say in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, most of Iowa and points north and west as snow and frigid cold are the primary stories of the day. A winter storm warning is in effect for northern Missouri, south central Iowa including Des Moines, and eastern Iowa including the Quad Cities area and Clinton, Iowa too. A heavy snow warning is in effect for Chicago today. In all these mentioned warning areas, significant snowfall is expected during the day today. Meanwhile an icestorm warning is up for Fort Wayne, Indiana and for all of northern Indiana today. Ice accumulation over 1/4 inch today could result in very hazardous travel as well as possible downed trees and powerlines. Folks in northern Indiana in isolated areas should prepare to lose power as this icestorm continues to be a major problem throughout the day today.

The culprit behind this storm system is an intensifying area of low pressure, which is expected to move across Missouri and south central Illinois today and across the Ohio Valley tonight. Areas north and west of this developing low pressure system can expect significant wintry weather conditions. This includes areas such as Chicago, Davenport, Rockford, and Des Moines. Kirksville, Joilet, and Fort Wayne are in the path of this winter storm as well. In addition to the developing low pressure system, there will be a high pressure area moving east from the rockies into the central United States. Between both the ow and the high, northerly winds are supplying a signficant cold airmass. So in addition to heavy snowfall, there will be blowing and drifting snow in places, and very dangerous wind chills both associated with the winter storm and north and west from there. I'll mention temperatures in a minute.

The snow/ice accumulations below are from this midwestern storm and it's broken down to the more significant impacted areas.

Kirksville, MO: 3-6 inches
Des Moines, IA: 3-5 inches
Quad Cities/Davenport: 6-12 inches
Clinton, IA: 4-8 inches
Rockford, IL: 7-14 inches
Chicago: 6-10 inches
Joliet: 2-4 inches of snow mixed with sleet and possible ice accumulation.
Fort Wayne: 1/4 inch of ice and maybe a light snow accumulation.

In addition to snow and ice, there is a trmendous temperature contrast going on early this morning. For example, Paducah, Kentucky is a balmy 65 degrees this morning on the 4th of January, amazing stuff. However International Falls, MN is down to 20 degrees below zero with a wind chill of -33. Duluth, MN is down to -8 with a wind chill on the shores of Lake Superior down to -19. Further west, the situation gets even worse. Williston, ND dropped to -20 this morning as of 4 am central time with a wind chill of -33. Want it even colder, how about Cut Bank, MT at 21 below with a wind chill of minus 36. The coldest spot I could find as of 3 am mountain time, 5 am eastern was a place called Havre, Montana, which sits east of Cut Bank. Havre is at minus 31 with a wind chill of 52 degrees below zero courtesy of a west wind at 8 mph. Havre may drop to -35 with 55-60 below wind chills before sunrise mountain time. That's frostbite type weather in 30 seconds time. Very dangerous conditions and a brutually cold arctic airmass in place at this point. A 1036 mb high will aid this arctic blast east and southeastward overtime eventually affecting the eastern US including the eastern seaboard over the next 24-48 hours. Get ready in the megalopolis for some sub freezing high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the teens.

Meanwhile the situation in the winter storm affected zones are not as dangerous as in the sky country of Montana and the northern plains. However with temps between 18 and 24 degrees and a strong north to northeast wind blowing between 10-20 mph with higher gusts, wind chills will drop between zero and 15 degrees below zero today and tonight from Des Moines into the Quad Cities and into the windy city of Chicago. So what I mean by not as dangerous is all relative. This is still a very dangerous situation across the midwest as heavy snow, blowing snow, and dangerous life threatening wind chills will greet you during your day. Then after the snow ends, the danger from the chill is far from over as the cold arctic air moves south and east and gets worse. By Monday morning, Chicago should drop to 5 above zero while Daveport drops to -1 and Des Moines drops to -6 degrees. A similar situation Tuesday morning after high temps on Monday only in the single digits and teens. Wind chill values during the early part of the week from Chicago to Des Moines will likely be in the zero to 25 below zero range. It gets alot worse north and west of there with -30 to -60 wind chills from Minnesota into the Dakota early in the week.

Keep an eye on the situation, we'll keep you posted on this dangerous weather situation throughout the day today. Stay tuned.

Jim

This post is meant as a supplement to Jim's excellent analysis and is not meant as sarcasm.


Yesterday our high was 73 degrees, but what is most noteworthy is that the overnight low was 60 degrees here.

Then we topped out at 74 this afternoon.

It's 413pm this afternoon as I type this post and we have NW winds at 10-15mph, temps have fallen to 58 degrees and dewpoints are near 45 degrees. This makes we wonder if the cold front has eased its way south and east of us?

I'm looking forward to this upcoming week of colder weather!!


SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring it!!!