Ok, well, for those of you in North Texas, NOAA, WFAA-TV, KXAS-TV, and The Weather Channel are all showing at least a chance of Snow Saturday.
Rain will turn to snow overnight Friday night into Saturday with temps falling through the day Saturday.
How much? System is days away -- may not happen at all, but apparently, lots of computer patterns and forecasts are in agreement that some type of winter weather event will occur in the Dallas area this weekend.
I just hope that if it happens it isn't a sleet or freezing rain event!
Snow for Dallas/Ft Worth Metro Area Saturday
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- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 223
- Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 5:18 am
- Location: Midlothian, TX
From NWS Ft Worth Discussion -- interesting
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SW CONUS BY FRIDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO TAKE A SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD AND VERY
WET. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SNOW/IP/RAIN MIX
NORTHWEST OF A GRAHAM TO SHERMAN LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXTURE
SPREADING SE TO AN EASTLAND...DALLAS...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL DRY AIR FROM
TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP WETBULB TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING ONCE PCPN BEGINS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THE SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
FRIDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN THE
DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST THROUGH SAT
MORN. WETBULB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CLOUDS/PCPN/CAA SUGGEST
MRF MOS IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPS SAT (PROBABLY TRENDING TOWARD CLIMO)
AND WE ARE UNDERCUTTING BY TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES. THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING...BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED TO TAKE A SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS ENSEMBLES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD AND VERY
WET. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SNOW/IP/RAIN MIX
NORTHWEST OF A GRAHAM TO SHERMAN LINE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXTURE
SPREADING SE TO AN EASTLAND...DALLAS...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE SATURDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...RESIDUAL DRY AIR FROM
TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP WETBULB TEMPERATURES QUITE LOW OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING ONCE PCPN BEGINS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THE SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
FRIDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL BEGIN THE
DEEP-LAYER COLD ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING EAST THROUGH SAT
MORN. WETBULB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CLOUDS/PCPN/CAA SUGGEST
MRF MOS IS TOO HIGH ON TEMPS SAT (PROBABLY TRENDING TOWARD CLIMO)
AND WE ARE UNDERCUTTING BY TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES. THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING...BUT WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.
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- CaptinCrunch
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