My Dream System! (Weenism at its best!) LOL (Day 9 12Z GFS)

[Guest]

Hey a person can dream! . I will say this however that there is quite a few people predicting a big storm around this time which the GFS maps below are for the 16 of Dec. Oh and by all means please remember the topic header here. This is 9 days out and More or less this will change. Even as much as i dont want it too it will.........(Hopefully a little colder ) Either way what you are looking at below would give me (IF this was to somehow verify which i doubt) about 2 to 3 + feet of snow! Now anyone living out this way now would be the time to start saying your prayers!!!!!!!!!Either way lets keep a eye and see how this goes and see how many times it will change!!!!

216HR 12ZGFS


228hr 12zGFS


Total precip for the storm!

[RNS]

it will be another coastal storm...the GFS out past 48 hours is wretched. I like the EC ideas on the system coming the week of the 15th better.

[Guest]

it will be another coastal storm...the GFS out past 48 hours is wretched. I like the EC ideas on the system coming the week of the 15th better.

Oh trust me i KNOW how bad this model is past a couple of days out. Hench the name of the topic header! A bit of ways off anyways to even start trying to guess where this baby will go..................I for one will be hoping and praying beyond belief for this track to verify!!!!!!!BTW why do you like the EC idea better????

[Stormsfury]

LOL ...

Ok, I'll bite ... 06z GFS (just in time for Christmas?) ...

[RNS]

Would be nice...but i/ll be in FL so it really doesn/t mean sh!t for me.

[Guest]

LMAO...........Question is SF........Where does yours go??? I say it go slightly west of due north and give me the double whammy:lol:!!!!!BIG TIME Wishfull thinking now huh!!!!!!

[RNS]

it will be another coastal storm...the GFS out past 48 hours is wretched. I like the EC ideas on the system coming the week of the 15th better.

Oh trust me i KNOW how bad this model is past a couple of days out. Hench the name of the topic header! A bit of ways off anyways to even start trying to guess where this baby will go..................I for one will be hoping and praying beyond belief for this track to verify!!!!!!!BTW why do you like the EC idea better????

Becasue of its superior meadium range skill.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Florida sounds good to me. Beats the brutal cold. I'll take snow and brutal cold though. Anyway Enjoy the warmer conditions down in Florida RNS.

We'll see how the XMAS time frame shapes up. I can recall New York City had 5 inches of snow and Baltimore had about 2 inches of snow on Christmas Day 2002. While the chances of a white christmas for the Baltimore to DC area are relatively low, it's always a possibility.

Jim

[wx247]

We had almost 2 feet of new snow on the ground on Christmas. That was a lot of fun... NOT! I just want an inch or two. We shall see if Mother Nature delivers.

[Stormsfury]

it will be another coastal storm...the GFS out past 48 hours is wretched. I like the EC ideas on the system coming the week of the 15th better.

Oh trust me i KNOW how bad this model is past a couple of days out. Hench the name of the topic header! A bit of ways off anyways to even start trying to guess where this baby will go..................I for one will be hoping and praying beyond belief for this track to verify!!!!!!!BTW why do you like the EC idea better????

Becasue of its superior meadium range skill.

99% of the time, I go with the ECMWF's superior pattern recognition in the MR (as I do this go-around) ... Ironically, the GFS caught up to the 12z ECMWF run from yesterday ... and look almost identical ... (or should I say, the ECMWF trended much further north from it's solution two days ago?) ...

The implications for a severe weather event beginning to look like a go in the South and possibly the Southeast ...

SF

[RNS]

LMAO...........Question is SF........Where does yours go??? I say it go slightly west of due north and give me the double whammy:lol:!!!!!BIG TIME Wishfull thinking now huh!!!!!!

I dont know...wasn/t thinking this would be the winter of inland runners in the first winter outlook and now given recent events im even less enclined to think so. The prefered mode of storm development this winter should be the Miller B and C tracks. Inland runners will be the second track and supressed events the third.

The last time that such events occured in December was 1960, 1981 and 1992. Each of which featured major winter storms in the big cities though only one of which was an analog used in our composite. all saw above normal snowfall in the major cities.

1960/61 had several major events...1981/82 had a major east coast snowstorm in april...and 1992 asw the storm of the century.

Florida sounds good to me. Beats the brutual cold. Enjoy the warmth down there RNS.

We'll see how the XMAS time frame shapes up. I can recall New York City had 5 inches of snow and Baltimore had about 2 inches of snow on Christmas Day 2002. While the chances of a white christmas for the Baltimore to DC area are relatively low, it's always a possibility.

Jim

I hate warm temperatures unless they bring severe wx. And i do NOT think there will be another event the week of xmas this year.

The problem areas over the next few months snow wise are as follows:

The week of dec 15.
The Second half of january
First week of Feb
Early to Mid March.

[RNS]

it will be another coastal storm...the GFS out past 48 hours is wretched. I like the EC ideas on the system coming the week of the 15th better.

Oh trust me i KNOW how bad this model is past a couple of days out. Hench the name of the topic header! A bit of ways off anyways to even start trying to guess where this baby will go..................I for one will be hoping and praying beyond belief for this track to verify!!!!!!!BTW why do you like the EC idea better????

Becasue of its superior meadium range skill.

99% of the time, I go with the ECMWF's superior pattern recognition in the MR (as I do this go-around) ... Ironically, the GFS caught up to the 12z ECMWF run from yesterday ... and look almost identical ... (or should I say, the ECMWF trended much further north from it's solution two days ago?) ...

The implications for a severe weather event beginning to look like a go in the South and possibly the Southeast ...

SF

I/d rather waffle with the EC than the GFS dude

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, I know what you mean about the EC ... in fact, my prognostic discussion on my website two days ago is still there ... LOL

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Forecast.html

I've Never heard of Miller C's? Care to elaborate?

SF

[RNS]

A miller type C east coast snowstorm occurrs when a clipper digs in further than normal...so when coastal cyclogenesis takes place the coastal low takes shape just east or southeast of the NC outerbanks...then moves out to sea.

These systems bring Major snow accumulations to NC...SC Northern GA and SRN VA...ORF...RIC normally get pounded.

[RNS]

BTW great discussion man...

[RNS]

SE new England and LI may also get clipped from a miller type C system

[Stormsfury]

A miller type C east coast snowstorm occurrs when a clipper digs in further than normal...so when coastal cyclogenesis takes place the coastal low takes shape just east or southeast of the NC outerbanks...then moves out to sea.

These systems bring Major snow accumulations to NC...SC Northern GA and SRN VA...ORF...RIC normally get pounded.

Major Snow Accumulations to South Carolina, eh? No wonder, I haven't heard about them much ...

[RNS]

A miller type C east coast snowstorm occurrs when a clipper digs in further than normal...so when coastal cyclogenesis takes place the coastal low takes shape just east or southeast of the NC outerbanks...then moves out to sea.

These systems bring Major snow accumulations to NC...SC Northern GA and SRN VA...ORF...RIC normally get pounded.

Major Snow Accumulations to South Carolina, eh? No wonder, I haven't heard about them much ...

HAHAHA.... The January Outerbanks basting this past winter was similar.

[Stormsfury]

A miller type C east coast snowstorm occurrs when a clipper digs in further than normal...so when coastal cyclogenesis takes place the coastal low takes shape just east or southeast of the NC outerbanks...then moves out to sea.

These systems bring Major snow accumulations to NC...SC Northern GA and SRN VA...ORF...RIC normally get pounded.

Major Snow Accumulations to South Carolina, eh? No wonder, I haven't heard about them much ...

HAHAHA.... The January Outerbanks basting this past winter was similar.

Gotcha ... so I raise a Miller :GiveBeer: for a Miller C or two this year ...

[Anonymous]

Could a miller C scenario make a nice north turn and move nice and slow up the coast, basting Woodbridge, VA with about 12 to 24 inches of snow? Could such a storm slow down just off Va Beach and stall and give me a New England-style 2 to 3 foot basting of wind-driven snows?

We can always dream.......



-JEB