GFS very very low on Precip

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mike01205
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GFS very very low on Precip

#1 Postby mike01205 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:34 pm

Do you think we should care, or we should just go into nowcasting time
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#2 Postby iCez2003 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:36 pm

What the hell are you talking about? It's out to 12 HRS, the 2nd low has just been born at 12...
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Re: GFS very very low on Precip

#3 Postby Ababa » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:37 pm

mike01205 wrote:Do you think we should care, or we should just go into nowcasting time


it is?
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#4 Postby mike01205 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:38 pm

IT is for me

Im sick of Philly
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#5 Postby TheWeatherZone » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:40 pm

What does Philly have anything to do with this? :?:

Mike~
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#6 Postby iCez2003 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:40 pm

Uh, I live in Philly too...It shows even more precip than last run, and more phasing, calm down dude LOL...I wouldn't be surprised if we have a foot of snow by the end of tomorrow.
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#7 Postby mike01205 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:41 pm

STUPID PHILLY
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#8 Postby SacrydDreamz » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:41 pm

iCez2003 wrote:What the hell are you talking about? It's out to 12 HRS, the 2nd low has just been born at 12...


2nd low has already been born off the NC/VA coast I do believe. Some pressure falls put there..
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#9 Postby iCez2003 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:43 pm

New GFS phases the Onterio ULL completely, gonna destroy NE...
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#10 Postby paul e » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:45 pm

Just like last year, it looks like this one was way far north of what was being forecast, cept for the godlike ecm. which means that instead of a dc, bwi, philly storm, its a NY, boston, and new england storm. Here in nY we already have over 4" on the ground and are expecting over a foot. not to rub it in or anything :)
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#11 Postby SacrydDreamz » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:46 pm

paul e wrote:Just like last year, it looks like this one was way far north of what was being forecast, cept for the godlike ecm. which means that instead of a dc, bwi, philly storm, its a NY, boston, and new england storm. Here in nY we already have over 4" on the ground and are expecting over a foot. not to rub it in or anything :)


Dude, what are you talking about? Initial forecast was north. Many thought it would trend north again.
Last edited by SacrydDreamz on Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby iCez2003 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:47 pm

This 2nd low is going to be a monster...Much higher ratios, wind, cold...I'm going for another 6 inches in and around PHI
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#13 Postby dg13x » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:50 pm

GFS adds another 1" to me...acutally 1.25" but gotta subtract .25" since we're 4hrs into the run. Already have 3-4"...this should be a BIG ONE!
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#14 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:56 pm

Latest GFS puts down about 0.8" additional QPF in my area between now and tomorrow evening. So 6 to 10 additional inches of snow seems reasonable.

Since this is the 18z run, doesn't a QPF chart show total liquid precip starting at 6 PM Eastern Time today? Just making sure.
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#15 Postby paul e » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:58 pm

>>ude, what are you talking about? Initial forecast was north. Many thought it would trend north again.
<<

Uh, are you forgetting the GFS for most of the prelims? What about the Nogaps... Or the Ukie. They all supported a suppressed soluiton. MOreover, the reason locals and LC didnt get on board earlier was this fear of the suppressed solution. I rest my case.

But to the initiator of this thread, where on earth does the gfs show very low precip. Philly was mentioned. Well, from now, through 60 hrs, it progs an inch qpf for philly. Id hardly call that very little, especially when you were supposed to reap some kingsize 'stage i' storm benefits which should have fallen by now. True, NY, Boston and envirions are doing better. Latest gfs puts NYC squarely in the additional 1.75" zone. Amazing early winter system.
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#16 Postby mike01205 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:01 pm

paul I was saying for DC metro area
Im sick of Philly and NYC getting everything we don't
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#17 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:04 pm

mike01205 wrote:paul I was saying for DC metro area
Im sick of Philly and NYC getting everything we don't


Move up here. My area gets decent snow, and we are right next to Spring Mountain - which is set to open for skiing, snowboarding and snow tubing next weekend.
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#18 Postby weatherscope » Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:07 pm

The scope has arrived.
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