An Epic Event Underway

[wwxman]

Well, I had my doubts. Remember the out-to-sea runs of the GFS? The ETA with precip stopping at the NY boarder as though hitting a mack truck? Even the sorta out to sea euro yesterday had me worried -- almost as much as Cosgrove's bold headline "Call It A "Near-Miss", "Fish Storm", Or "Model Fantasy": Disturbance Now Over Midwest Will Pay A Disorganized Visit To Appalachia, Mid-Atlantic And The Carolinas Before Heading Out To Sea..." in his letter YESTERDAY! But it's now clear that at least for most of NJ, this will be an epic storm where many see 6-12" -- and that may be (probably is) conservative. Someone in NJ gets 18". A great storm anytime, but for so early, well, epic. Enjoy!

[JCT777]

And won't it be fun to see how LC explains his way out of this one?

[Fishmn]

Yea it will. Backpeddling to the nth degree. Hearing Ken Reeves being humbled on Point/Counterpoint today was classic. Even JB had the heart not to lay into him.

[VortexMax]

And won't it be fun to see how LC explains his way out of this one?

LC really could come out of this looking bad, after the 45-50 and PC forecast for CT on Saturday, that he stuck with most of this week. And today's newletter was grudging acknowledgement of this. I still respect LC's abilities though, noone gets 'em all right, and we all need to remember that.

[JCT777]

VortexMax - yes, and I won't bust on LC too badly. I am just curious what his newsletter is going to say tomorrow.

[HuffWx]

LC still downplayed it today..agai wrong...but what will he say?

[mathias1979]

I felt pretty confident most of the week that we'd see at least some snow from this storm up my way this week. But monday and tuesday I was thinking something like 3-6" max with maybe even a chance for rain mixing in. I really wasn't expecting to be in the 12"+ bullseye back at the beginning of the week. Oh well...now that my company decided to put me up at the hotel a mile down the road and I don't have to really worry about driving much in it...I say bring it

-Matt

[Stephanie]

Do you think that Mt. Holly follows Cosgrove and his forecasts? They still don't have anything posted for tomorrow!!!

[JCT777]

Do you think that Mt. Holly follows Cosgrove and his forecasts? They still don't have anything posted for tomorrow!!!

Latest statement from Mt. Holly:

... Winter Storm Warning in effect through Saturday...

Occasional snow will continue over portions of the Lehigh Valley and Pocono sections of Pennsylvania and northwest portions of New Jersey tonight, becoming heavy at times during the early morning hours. Farther south in the warning area intermittent light snow will continue tonight, becoming heavy at times toward daybreak. The snow, heavy at times, will continue through Saturday morning, tapering off to flurries late in the day or at night. Additional snow accumulations will be 10 to 15 inches in the Pennsylvania poconos and extreme northwest New Jersey, 8 to 14 inches in the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania and portions of northwest New Jersey, 8 to 12 inches in southeastern Pennsylvania north and west of Philadelphia and central New Jersey, 4 to 8 inches in northeast Maryland, northern Delaware, southwestern New Jersey, and inland ocean and Monmouth counties in New Jersey. These amounts are in addition to the snow already on the ground.

Winds will increase later tonight as the storm intensifies. Late tonight winds will be north northeast 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph, shifting to north Saturday morning and to north northwest Saturday afternoon. These gusty winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting of the snow.

[DerangedHermit]

At least Upton seems on the ball. They just posted this:

BLIZZARD WARNING

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
450 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

...A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS STORM WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND STEADY SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE STORM WILL FINALLY DEPART SUNDAY AND THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END.

CTZ011-012-NYZ078>081-060500-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
450 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT
TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED BY MORNING.

ANY MIXTURE WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FINAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR, WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME
LOST OR DISORIENTED, SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO
STAY INDOORS.

ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

$$

[Anonymous]

You want Epic? These are some epically big sleet balls that we are getting here!! Jeez!! I went outside for some obs and that darn sleet hurts!!!!