Snow accumulations in and around Baltimore, and the forecast

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. Observations here in Baltimore vary from rain to sleet and snow. It was all snow earlier this morning. 4.5 inches of snow accumulated at my house in Essex, Maryland. Baltimore City had anywhere from 5 inches on the east side to 9 inches on the west side of the city. Some places in southwestern Baltimore County received up to 10 inches of snowfall. The Catonsville and Reisterstown area can attest to that. There were many traffic accidents this morning and lots of delays. Folks wanting to head out should slow it down throughout the day today and if you don't have to travel, just make it a three day weekend in the DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York corridors because as messy as it is right now, it is expected to get even worse tonight into Saturday as a coastal storm develops off the Mid Atlantic coast. Cold high pressure over eastern Canada will supply the colder air south into the northeast and mid atlantic region. Also the pressure gradient between the high and low pressure will create very strong winds, especially in coastal areas. This will be especially true tonight right through Sunday in the megalopolis with major to perhaps crippling effects both on the coast and inland.

A winter storm warning is in effect for Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, and New York tonight through Saturday. A winter storm watch is in effect for Boston and Providence as snow will be arriving in those areas later Saturday into Saturday night and last into Sunday. In addition numerous gale warnings are up along the northeast and Mid Atlantic coast. A coastal flood watch is up for the Delaware and Jersey shore including Delaware Bay and Delaware River. Moderate beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding is expected in these areas tonight right through Saturday night. Tides are expected to be several feet above normal along the Jersey shore and Delaware beaches. However coastal flooding is also a possibility for the Maryland and Virginia beaches also as gale force winds are expected in those areas also. Moderate beach erosion and some coastal flooding can be expected across the tidewater and delmarva region also. In addition to all of that, sustained winds could close in on storm force with gusts well over storm force for the New England coastal waters. The Cape Cod area could get rocked by storm force winds Saturday through Sunday morning. That combined with snowfall could result in blizzard conditions even along the coastal waters wherever heavy snow develops and accumulates. That would include you in Boston, New York City, Providence, and even Marthas Vienyard.

As for snowfall impact, that could potentially be serious for the megalopolis. Breaking it down, 3-6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches of snow fell in Washington DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. That is just part 1 of the part 2 winter storm. Part 2 will bring additional snowfall of 4-8 inches potentially for DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. Meanwhile in New York City, expect a total snowfall of 8-12 inches and Boston could see 10-16 inches with locally higher amounts in the western suburbs.
For example, the Allentown and Harrisburg, PA areas could see snow totals in the 12-16 inch range between now and late Saturday. Some places from northeast Pennsylvania into southeast New York could see up to nearly 20 inches of snow between Friday night and Sunday morning.

Another question is what about areas south and east of the megalopolis? Rain is the main precipitation type. However, as this coastal storm winds up, cold high pressure will nose colder temperature down the Chesapeake Bay into the Delmarva and Tidewater area. Areas from Richmond to Salisbury could see up to 1-3 inches of snowfall Saturday morning before precipitation comes to an end. Norfolk and Virginia Beach has a chance of rain changing to snow showers with little accumulation of snow expected. The main forecast issue for the Delmarva coastal waters is gale force winds and coastal flooding problems.

Further updates will be given of this storm later tonight as thins start to wind up once again.

Jim

[wx247]

Good job Jim, as always. It is definitely something to watch. And there I said the ETA's projection of 15" a day or two ago was too much.

[JCT777]

Great discussion, Jim. Thanks!

[Anonymous]

Excellent discussion Jim!! I always look forward to your weather posts!!



-SnowBlitzJEB