Any idea for Alexandria, Va and nearby areas?

[jtuckermartin]

Frankly here on the Potomac in Old Town this first event, as expected, was rather minimal. Early inch followed by a cold rain- importance of proximity to the river this early in the season can never be underestimated. My thoughts though are on the second system. Is there a chance to exceed 4 inches here? DT I have emailed with you in the past, I am always trigger shy with these situations really giving us good snow- but even Bob Ryan is saying 4-8 overnight. Your thoughts? Others?

[Lowpressure]

Jebs Northern Virgiinia thread is pretty good, there are several of us posting reports and having discussion.

[neo gravitas]

Doesn't look good for DCA, as reflected in DT's maps. Upper low doesn't catch up in time to keep the surface low far enough south and east to get more precip into DCA when temps start coming back down. If you look at 500mb charts, that energy is also further north. And the trend continues to be north.

[Lowpressure]

They just bumped up our temps for tonight and added rain into the wording. Don't be too surprised if we get squat for snow from this storm.

[neo gravitas]

18z ETA is rolling out. Still has DCA at 0 at 850 at 0z. We shall see.

[jtuckermartin]

One thing I have learned here in DC is energy transferring to the DelMarVa coast is always a bust for us. By the time the precip gets going its already up in NJ and thus we are high and dry. Bummer but I guess someone had to be the bust for this- DC makes sense. Still hoping for a change in plans and 4-8, and if anyone sees any reason for optimism let us poor suffering Potomac Snow fans know.

[neo gravitas]

What you say has some merit. However, in this case, the surface low was already beginning to form from the first impulse, so it's not spinning up something new. Plus, we're dealing with a closed low moving across tenn/ky, and as many folks have pointed out, these tend to move slowly.

Two things could happen quite easily to get more snow into DCA: the ULL moving a little slower and little more south, and the surface low not elongating east as quickly as now progged. These are subtle differences, not big shifts. We'll have to wait and see.

And, with a little burst of activity, downtown dc just went back to snow.

[jtuckermartin]

Neo thanks for taking the time to engage in a little speculation about DC with me. I do agree if the UL moves a little south we could be in for a better snow- certainly a nice period of steady snow from the Upper would be just fine by me- it is early Dec after all! I also am hoping for the Coastal to take shape just a little south, seems like I hope for this every year- and every year it takes shape a LITTLE north! But what can you do? Still drizzle on the Old Town waterfront, stiff breeze from the NNE- still hoping for just a little while in the comma head!

[neo gravitas]

ETA looks a little slower, again, and a little further north, again. So. As noted in the diagnostics, it isn't quite getting the depth of the surface low off Norfolk. But all in all, it's sort of a best case scenario of 2-4 in DC.

[mike01205]

I don't see that neo I see alot of QPF for DC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 4_024l.gif

[neo gravitas]

Well, it puts out about .75 for DCA by 24hrs, and at least a third of that occurs before it goes all snow. ETA is generally at least a little too wet, so that gives you 2-4, depending upon how quickly the change occurs.

Even that's probably too wet since its been trending north.

[greg81988]

What about Richmond,VA

[mike01205]

Well, it puts out about .75 for DCA by 24hrs, and at least a third of that occurs before it goes all snow. ETA is generally at least a little too wet, so that gives you 2-4, depending upon how quickly the change occurs.

Even that's probably too wet since its been trending north.

NWS says 4-8 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow so they don't agree with you

[neo gravitas]

Mike,

1) Just out from NWS: IN THE DISTRICT NOT THAT CONFIDENT THAT WARNING CRITERIA (4.5 INS) WILL BE MET THERE

2) I'm telling you what the models are saying, and what my eyes tell me when I look at other data and obs. I'm not looking around for some support for my ideas. I'm just talkin bout what I see.

3) And so what if they did disagree?

Hey, I'd love to see 8+ downtown DC, but it ain't gonna happen with this storm.

[mike01205]

Good thing I don't live in Downtown DC.

I live in Loudoun County

[jtuckermartin]

NWS is saying 4.5 inches in the District looks unlikely. Now it could occur, as NEO has stipulated, but odds are it will not. Look I am the biggest snow weenie there is, and this is all dissapointing, but hey it is what it is so enjoy what you get! If we get 4 inches here in Old Town with the Scottish Walk tommorrow well I would be thrilled, would be a great atmosphere.

[neo gravitas]

*Banging head on desk*

Everyone of my posts says DCA. The discussion couldn't have been *that* hard for you to follow, could it?

[mike01205]

lol sorry Im still thinking another 3" for DCA is not out of the question