Holy Cow! I looked at the NWS site from Pittsburgh not even 15 minutes ago and my county was expecting maybe 3 inches total from this system...and now 15 minutes later, we are under a winter storm warning for 6 to 10 inches!!!! I am totally blown away by this development over the last 15 to 20 minutes now. I was looking at a light weekend of doing X-mas shopping and now we could be digging out from almost a foot of snow. Has the models moved this system that much to do this? I guess I will be shoveling after all. Here is the statement from Pittsburgh...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1042 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
PAZ013>016-022-023-050326-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
LAWRENCE PA-
1042 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS MORNING APPROACHES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE
IN THE AFFECTED AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE, OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE.
Well, now this will make for an interesting commute home tomorrow night as well. I have to work late too. Arggg. I was thinking, going to have a nice drive home...now its going to be fun and tricky.
WINTER STORM WARNING!!
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tomboudreau
- Category 5
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WINTER STORM WARNING!!
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montrealboy
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 172
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:39 pm
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Here is the reason why for the change:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pa/discussion.html
(...)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR WINT STM WARNING AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
.UPDATE...
(...)
MODELS HAVE NOW (AND FOR GOOD REASON THAT I'LL EXPLAIN BELOW)
TRENDED MORE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR PRIMARY FORCING AND RESULTANT
STORM TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL.
(...)
*** 00Z ETA JUST IN THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH
THE TRACK OF THE 18Z GFS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AT THE NRN TIP OF
THE CHES BAY SAT MORNING (WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS).***
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING
WATCHES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST (TO THE NCENT MTNS) FOR LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY -> SATURDAY.
WILL HOIST WINT STORM WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AREAS OF THE SOUTH (AND EXPAND IT A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH) BASED ON 00Z ETA CONSENUS WITH 18Z
GFS...RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AND TO BLEND WITH PBZ'S WARNINGS.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/pa/discussion.html
(...)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR WINT STM WARNING AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
.UPDATE...
(...)
MODELS HAVE NOW (AND FOR GOOD REASON THAT I'LL EXPLAIN BELOW)
TRENDED MORE NORTHWEST WITH THEIR PRIMARY FORCING AND RESULTANT
STORM TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL.
(...)
*** 00Z ETA JUST IN THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH
THE TRACK OF THE 18Z GFS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AT THE NRN TIP OF
THE CHES BAY SAT MORNING (WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS).***
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING
WATCHES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST (TO THE NCENT MTNS) FOR LATER IN THE
DAY FRIDAY -> SATURDAY.
WILL HOIST WINT STORM WARNINGS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AREAS OF THE SOUTH (AND EXPAND IT A FEW LAYERS OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH) BASED ON 00Z ETA CONSENUS WITH 18Z
GFS...RECENT RADAR TRENDS...AND TO BLEND WITH PBZ'S WARNINGS.
Last edited by montrealboy on Thu Dec 04, 2003 11:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Anonymous
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tomboudreau
- Category 5
- Posts: 1869
- Age: 48
- Joined: Tue Feb 18, 2003 6:07 pm
- Location: Carnegie, PA
- Contact:
!
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
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weatherlover427
-
Guest
Re: WINTER STORM WARNING!!
I have had PIT in 6 inches plus for the last 36 hrs now..... what is the big deal?
tomboudreau wrote:Holy Cow! I looked at the NWS site from Pittsburgh not even 15 minutes ago and my county was expecting maybe 3 inches total from this system...and now 15 minutes later, we are under a winter storm warning for 6 to 10 inches!!!! I am totally blown away by this development over the last 15 to 20 minutes now. I was looking at a light weekend of doing X-mas shopping and now we could be digging out from almost a foot of snow. Has the models moved this system that much to do this? I guess I will be shoveling after all. Here is the statement from Pittsburgh...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1042 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
PAZ013>016-022-023-050326-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
LAWRENCE PA-
1042 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS MORNING APPROACHES WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, SNOW INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ARE FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE
IN THE AFFECTED AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE, OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS
UNAVOIDABLE.
Well, now this will make for an interesting commute home tomorrow night as well. I have to work late too. Arggg. I was thinking, going to have a nice drive home...now its going to be fun and tricky.
0 likes
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FreakyWxChick
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 111
- Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2003 1:53 am
- Location: SW PA
Re: WINTER STORM WARNING!!
tomboudreau wrote:Holy Cow! I looked at the NWS site from Pittsburgh not even 15 minutes ago and my county was expecting maybe 3 inches total from this system...and now 15 minutes later, we are under a winter storm warning for 6 to 10 inches!!!!
Well, now this will make for an interesting commute home tomorrow night as well. I have to work late too. Arggg. I was thinking, going to have a nice drive home...now its going to be fun and tricky.
PIT NWS went for 12 hours yesterday without an update. When they finally did update they gave Fayette and Westmoreland WSWarnings. Later in the evening they gave Allegheny a warning too but left Washington and Greene alone.
They sat on it, plain and simple. Denardo is covering his rear now by saying 3-11". That's a huge range.
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FreakyWxChick
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 111
- Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2003 1:53 am
- Location: SW PA
Denardo
The day before the President's Day storm I was sitting online talking to a friend who is a met student. Anyhow my friend said 12-18" and I think his lowest projection for anywhere around PIT was 10". That night Denardo is saying 3-6" for PIT.
I ended up with 16" in Westmoreland. PIT ended up with 14" if I'm not mistaken.
The only channel that has been close as far as a track record is KDKA which is Accuweather.
I ended up with 16" in Westmoreland. PIT ended up with 14" if I'm not mistaken.
The only channel that has been close as far as a track record is KDKA which is Accuweather.
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