Winter Storm Watch might be extended northward...

[montrealboy]

...into southern and central Vermont.

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050309
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1009 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...
WITH SARANAC LAKE (KSLK) ALREADY AT 9 BELOW ZERO. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE FORECASTS FOR SKY COVER AND TO BROADEN THE LOW TEMPERATURE
RANGE OVERNIGHT. [b]18Z GFS MODEL RUN SHOWING PRECIPITATION
FROM DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH INTO
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL SNOW. IF 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.[/b] OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

[montrealboy]

FXUS61 KBUF 050228
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 PM EST THU DEC 4 2003

11-3.9 MICRON CURVE THIS EVENING SHOWING BAND OF STRATOCU EXTENDING
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. STRATOCU TRYING TO THIN
OUT BUT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME. THINK AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IN AND MAY EVEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. CIRRUS WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. WILL
LOWER A LITTLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR NOW. NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH IS STARTING TO COME IN...CONTINUING TO SUGGEST BULK
OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...00Z
NGM/ETA ALSO SUGGESTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWS POSSIBLE.

[mathias1979]

Personally I can't understand why Albany held off with any watches for their southern zone. Watches are issued when the potential exists for 6"+, so why they decided to wait is beyond me.

-Matt