The threat of big EC snow storm fading fast?? Your Opinions?

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I know there are already a lot of threads about this, but, is the threat of the possible East Coast snowstorm this weekend fading fast?? Here is a part of the Area Forecast Discussion my from local NWS in Sterling, Va:


"IT SEEMS NOW LIKE THE DAMMING EVENT I'D BEEN EYEING FOR NEXT WKND IS
FADING AWAY...AND THAT EYE HAS TURNED TO A PSBL DEEP LOW TO OUR S ON
SUN. IT'S INTERESTING - THIS IS MY 4TH MIDSHIFT...B4 MY 1ST THE MRF
HAD A "SUPER LOW" ACROSS THE ERN U.S. FOR NEXT WKND...WHICH I DIDN'T
THINK WAS PLAUSIBLE. THEN FOR THE NEXT FEW RUNS THE LOW VANISHED...
REPLACED BY A DAMMING HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND NOW A LESSER
VERSION OF THE LOW IS BACK. HENCE I HV SOME TREPIDATION ABT BUYING
INTO THE MRF DAY 6+ WHOLE HOG. FOR NOW WL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE FRI
NGT/SAT PD. AIR MASS WL NOT BE VERY COLD...BUT WL HV CHC "RW OR SW"
IN THE FAR WRN MTNS AND RW ELSEWHERE. WL MAKE NEXT SUN M CLDY.

It seems like they think so at least.........What are your thoughts or opinions?

[Lowpressure]

I was looking at that as well this morning. It seems there is a lot of model diversity in regards to several systems currently. Recently models have underestimated storm intensity in the 72 and less time frame. Not sure why there is so much shifting. I understand the problem with the potential low coming from the south, but the high should be easier to forecast.

[donsutherland1]

Cheesy_Poofs,

Three quick points:

1) A significant storm along the East Coast looks likely this coming weekend. Teleconnections strongly argue for such a storm. Model data--in spite of differences pertaining to development, placement, etc., are in good agreement concerning a fairly strong storm. SSTAs off the Southeastern U.S. also augment the prospects of such a storm.

Will a 969 mb bomb result as depicted by the GGEM? I doubt it. Will there be a storm with a central pressure of 990 mb or less, I strongly believe that this will be the case.

2) I don't believe anyone has been calling for a big snowstorm in the major cities from Washington, DC through Boston. This does not preclude the idea of some frozen precipitation there but those cities will likely see mostly and perhaps all rain from this vantage point. Moreover, they will probably see a signficant amount of precipitation (more than 1 inch). That has not changed much over the past couple of days.

3) The question really pertains to where the rain-snow divide will set up. A decent snowfall continues to look likely in the mountains of NC, VA, WV. Other inland areas within 100 miles of the coast and perhaps closer also stand to receive at least some accumulation at this point in time based on the soundings.

How much? That remains to be seen, as it's far too soon to commit to amounts. The track, intensity, and availability of cold air will be all-important.

As RNS mentioned the 2/5-6/2001 nor'easter, the following depicts 850 mb temperatures. Notice how the area of cooler but not spectacularly cold readings associated with a broad trough that stretched into the Great Lakes region were pulled eastward as the storm intensified:

850 mb temperatures:
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=132773">

Surface pressures:
<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=132774">

All said, I don't believe there ever was the prospect of a big East Coast snowstorm. So far, as things continue to evolve, the idea of a significant storm is solidifying not fading.

[JCT777]

Thanks, Don. A lot of what I have been reading about this storm here and at WWBB seems to contradict what Larry Cosgrove said this morning - which is that the storm for this weekend will not be very strong, will only affect the mid-Atlantic (south of the Mason-Dixon line) and will only produce a little wet snow in the high elevations of NC/VA/WV. If I believed this, the forecast for my area this weekend would be partly cloudy. I am starting to get confused about exactly what to believe.

[Colin]

Larry Cosgrove must not be looking at the latest models.

[HeartofNC]

How soon will we know for sure on this event and it's most probable range?

HeartofNC

[RDove]

Thursday-Friday we'll know more about the storm. In my opinion, storm could go either way (snow or rain).