New 0Z Canadian Model (Dec 1) on Weekend event

[montrealboy]

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[RNS]

******(RNS Sh!ts BRICKS)*******

well SF... thats run #2...stronger...and further south...

[donsutherland1]

969 mb. Is that all she can muster?

It would be incredible if it came to pass.

All in all, in spite of the differences among the various models concerning track, timing, etc., I believe that it is reasonable to conclude that there will likely be a significant storm developing in the Friday-Sunday period.

[Stormsfury]

Hmmm ... BOMBS AWAY PART II!!! 969 MB LOW off the DELMARVA Coast ... 970 MB LOW last night ... the Canadian, if anything is consistent in depicting a historical event ... but again, that's assuming a FULL PHASE of the tropical system with the disturbance sliding down into the MA through the period ... IMHO, interesting, but WAY overdone ...

Just saw the posts above ... Something is a-brewing.

SF

[RNS]

its well overdone clearly...but i do think that we can get the 3 things of value of that mildly entertaining run...

1) a trend further south...

2) a trend stronger...

3) a coastal event...

[Stormsfury]

its well overdone clearly...but i do think that we can get the 3 things of value of that mildly entertaining run...

1) a trend further south...

2) a trend stronger...

3) a coastal event...

And the trends seems to be my friend (for now, anyway...LOL)

SF

[RNS]

and the goings on in europe support it as well...remembe rthe EC from a few days ago had the massive cutoff over spain,,,its perfectly teleconnected.

[Colin]

And the trends right now are my BEST Friends...

[Stormsfury]

and the goings on in europe support it as well...remembe rthe EC from a few days ago had the massive cutoff over spain,,,its perfectly teleconnected.

I had a feeling you were going to post that ... I was thinking the same thing ...

SF

[RNS]

GFS = Good For Sh!t...it drops the PJ s/w too far to the west and brings the low inland...against the consensus from the EC and GGEM...

[Stormsfury]

And it also slides the high to the East and out to sea as well ... no Greenland block, no high ... WTF is wrong with the GFS's run? Well, it's the GFS in the MR ...

You're right, drops the PV too far west, and is good for $#!T when it comes to recognizing CAD ...

SF

[RNS]

if nothing else this is good for a decent laugh

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_132l.gif

[RNS]

its the pace of the GFS...the general trend of the ETA out to 84 hrs is much more in line with the EC and the GGEM

[WXBUFFJIM]

That's much like a strong hurricane as far as intensity goes. That seems overdone. But a trend further south, colder air on the back side, and a strong coastal event could make life interesting next weekend for the eastern seaboard.

Still several more days to really get the real sense of this situation since the models are divergent. That would normally be the case 6 days out though.

Bring it on though. That 's fine as far as I'm concerned.

Jim

[Stormsfury]

its the pace of the GFS...the general trend of the ETA out to 84 hrs is much more in line with the EC and the GGEM

My money goes with the EC/ETA, especially if there's a close match or almost perfectly match ... that's a DT Double EE rule, and has served very true ... Is it me, or just my imagination that only the GFS has no blocking signature meanstwhile the GGEM, EC, and others do?...

SF

[RNS]

i/m anxiously awaiting the NOGAPS

[RNS]

My money goes with the EC/ETA, especially if there's a close match or almost perfectly match ... that's a DT Double EE rule, and has served very true ... Is it me, or just my imagination that only the GFS has no blocking signature meanstwhile the GGEM, EC, and others do?...

SF

the GFS had the blocking on the 18z run but still couldint handle the energy...this comes back to its bias of enhancing the PJ...now it doesent have the block and still cant handle the energy...

aside from the GFS and whatever the NOGAPS has we/re approaching model consenseus tonight here!!

[Stormsfury]

UGH! I hate having to go to sleep when things get exciting! ...

Looks like the website updates will have to wait a few days ...

Definitely getting very interesting for next weekend ....

SF

[RNS]

lol...yea im gonna also as soon as i see the NOGAPS

[RNS]

00Z 12/01 NOGAPS:

120hr 500 hPa heights / vorticity:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=120

132hr 500 hPa heights / vorticity:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=132

144hr...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=144

the NOGAPS shows a partial phase at 132 hrs...however follows the trend of the EC to tilt the trough positive...the implication of the NOGAPS is that it keeps the PJ and STJ energy seperated and attempts to close off the STJ energy at a much lower latitude.

I am more enclined to go with the EC solution overall. I dont think the NOGAPS is assessing the northern stream properly given the fact that it shows the phase then looses it.