Hmmm .... EURO hits the MA/NE in the MR

[Stormsfury]

ECMWF Day 3-7 Loop

[RNS]

touchdown EC...hahaha...anyway that is the best solution i have seen yet...and secondly...the denounces the 18z GFS further supporting the previous trend.

[Stormsfury]

touchdown EC...hahaha...anyway that is the best solution i have seen yet...and secondly...the denounces the 18z GFS further supporting the previous trend.

Has the cold air damming signature even on those low-res at the 850mb level ... and it may trend a little southward along the surface. Gets more and more interesting ... (and another night of putting the website updates on hold ... )

BTW, the surface .. and it, too, depicts the tropical disturbance as well ...

EURO SLP Days 3-7 Loop

SF

[RNS]

tell me about it...lol

and also look at the position of the 50/50 low...thats just like what we were dealing with on presidents day.

the confluent flow in back of the 50/50 low forced the devleopment of strong high pressre that drilled cold air down east of the mountains...your probably right the adjustment is south and east but not by much since the 50/50 low is tlited strongly negative and almost turned on its belly which flattens the flow

[RNS]

and furthermore notice the more amplified pattern overall which supports more digging of the s/w

[ColdFront77]

It appears to me (hopefully I am not the only one in the dark on some things I feel I should, but can't/don't know about) that not everyone knows what this {50-50 Low} and other terms mean.

I found this from wxrisk.com: The "50-50 Low"

[RNS]

yes tom thats exactly what we/re discussing...however it should be noted that even if low pressure is located slightly to the east or southeast of newfoundland it can still count as a 50/50 low (though it would obviously be displaced from the normal location which is at 50N and 50W).

the idea is that high pressure forms in the confluent flow in back of the 50/50 low...which helps to support the sustaining of cold air east of the mountains.

[Stormsfury]

It appears to me (hopefully I am not the only one in the dark on some things I feel I should, but can't/don't know about) that not everyone knows what this {50-50 Low} and other terms mean.

I found this from wxrisk.com: The "50-50 Low"

The 50-50 low can be very important and usually induces blocking which keeps colder air locked into the Eastern US ... DT has a very nice write up on his page about it ...

SF

[RNS]

The 50-50 low can be very important and usually induces blocking which keeps colder air locked into the Eastern US ... DT has a very nice write up on his page about it ...

right...and notice how the GFS (eventhough the rest of the run was sh!t) still brings blocking westward toward greenland.



notice the height rises to the northeast of the 50/50 low and PV over the davis strait. this can also serve as further evidence that the GFS 18z run is WAY off.

[Stormsfury]

GSP and CHS a-buzzing about a strong CAD event in their AFD's today ...

FXUS62 KCHS 302019
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...CALM WNDS...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S AND CLR SKIES WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AGAIN AFT SUNSET. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGS
BELOW GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WL FCST MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40S NR
THE COAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWS IN THE LWR 30S IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS SUCH AS ALLENDALE AND JAMESTOWN. XPCT TO
SEE SCATTERED FROST DVLP AFT MIDNGT AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S
AWAY FM THE COAST AND SFC RH VALUES APPROACH 70 PERCENT. WL SHOW SCT
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND FCST TEXT TO COVER. THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED THEREFORE A FROST ADVISORY WL NOT BE ISSUED.
&&

.LONG TERM...BASICALLY A TEMP FCST FOR MON-TUE. AFTER A BRIEF WARM
UP ON MON TEMPS TUMBLE AGAIN ON TUE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. FOR WED AND BEYOND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST
INCRS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN HWVR THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE DETAILS. IT APPEARS
A STRONG CAD EVENT WL ENSUE WED-FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WK OVERRUNNING DVLPS. WHILE THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL TROF AND THE
DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AM A BIT HESITANT TO BUY INTO A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER COASTAL TROF SOLN JUST YET AS CONCEPTIONAL THIS
DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SINCE WITH SUCH A STRONG WEDGE FCST TO DVLP. TIME
WL TELL. FOR NOW HAVE LWRD TEMPS FOR WED-FRI BY SEVERAL CATEGORIES
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ADIABATIC AFFECTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
THE DIABATIC AFFECTS OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. HAVE ALSO INCR POPS
SLGTLY TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND INTRODUCED DZ FOR THU-FRI. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE PSBL THU AND MAYBE FRI ALONG THE COAST IF THE PINCHED
GRADIENT MATERIALIZES AS XPCTD.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2003

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH CENTERING OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY MIDWEEK...WE ARE LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE WEDGE SETTING UP
BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH...BUT RIGHT NOW
I DON'T SEE THE MOISTURE NEEDED TO DEVELOP MUCH WINTER WEATHER.

GFS IS MOST AGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS AND THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE PRECIP IS OVERDONE. SO UNTIL THERE IS SOME CONTINUITY
IN THE MODEL RUNS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

SECOND FRONT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
SETTING UP FROM VIRGINIA TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD
WIND UP AS A MAJOR STORM...BUT UNTIL WE SEE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS
...I WILL HOLD OFF. TEMPS NEAR AVN MOS.

[RNS]

I agree to a point...however there is no mention about the weekend system...how does one just miss that??

[Stormsfury]

I agree to a point...however there is no mention about the weekend system...how does one just miss that??

GSP does mention it ... but waiting for consistency (like us, I guess.) But then again, these discussions were written early this afternoon ...

SECOND FRONT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
SETTING UP FROM VIRGINIA TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD
WIND UP AS A MAJOR STORM...BUT UNTIL WE SEE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS
...I WILL HOLD OFF. TEMPS NEAR AVN MOS.

CHS is generally quite conservative but the mets there are pretty good at recognizing CAD ...

SF

[RNS]

SECOND FRONT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
SETTING UP FROM VIRGINIA TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD
WIND UP AS A MAJOR STORM...BUT UNTIL WE SEE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS
...I WILL HOLD OFF. TEMPS NEAR AVN MOS.


oh Sh!t...i missed that (less caffene is an order...lol).

well at least they did mention it...but their long range temps are going to bust...if their following guidance temps...b/c the GFS isn/t seeing the CAA on the back side of the low.

[Stormsfury]

SECOND FRONT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
SETTING UP FROM VIRGINIA TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD
WIND UP AS A MAJOR STORM...BUT UNTIL WE SEE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS
...I WILL HOLD OFF. TEMPS NEAR AVN MOS.


oh Sh!t...i missed that (less caffene is an order...lol).

well at least they did mention it...but their long range temps are going to bust...if their following guidance temps...b/c the GFS isn/t seeing the CAA on the back side of the low.

LOL ... and more caffeine in store for me ... (at least to make it to 11 pm ... website details to take care of ... ) ... Believe me, GSP will adjust accordingly when we get closer to the event ... if there is an event. They are quite good.

SF

[RNS]

also the day 10 EC builds a negative NAO...as low pressure closes off and cuts east. Notice all the heat getting pumped northeastward toward iceland as the resulant height rises taking place to the northeast of the low.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

[RNS]

LOL ... and more caffeine in store for me ... (at least to make it to 11 pm ... website details to take care of ... ) ... Believe me, GSP will adjust accordingly when we get closer to the event ... if there is an event. They are quite good.

SF

i mean with how much coffee i/ve drank in the past 4 hours you would think i would have had a heart attack...lol. but anyway im sure they will lower temps as we get closer to the event and the GFS picks up on the CAA. i was just speaking from a long-range verification standpoint. if i was the forecaster i would have gone well below guidance on sunday.

[Stormsfury]

also the day 10 EC builds a negative NAO...as low pressure closes off and cuts east. Notice all the heat getting pumped northeastward toward iceland as the resulant height rises taking place to the northeast of the low.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Hmmm, looks a bit like a SCAND block setting up (modified -NAO), not the classic version, but it'll do ... EURO also seems to be picking up on a split flow as well, though, with no Caspian Connection ... that pattern setup looks quite volatile with potential for northern/southern stream phasing down the road ... Let the games begin ...

SF

[RNS]

but the low pressure sitting to the south would argue to draw the blocking west...and remember this is the day 8-10 average...the day 10 alone is MUCH more impressive.

http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 40_500.gif

[Stormsfury]

but the low pressure sitting to the south would argue to draw the blocking west...and remember this is the day 8-10 average...the day 10 alone is MUCH more impressive.

http://www.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... 40_500.gif

Can I borrow $29.95?

SF

[RNS]

hahahaha....