00z Canadian is ... full blown MEGABOMB ...

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00z Canadian is ... full blown MEGABOMB ...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:30 pm

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#2 Postby RNS » Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:34 pm

BOMBS AWAY...that is a HISTORIC hit if the canadian is right. 970mb low off the delmarva...
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#3 Postby RNS » Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:46 pm

as nice as this is to look at however...i should point out that its a very unlikely solution. the preformance of the canadian GGEM has been poor lately and this is another fascit of the problems its having in the medium and long range.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:51 pm

The 00z GFS/GGEM is highly dependant on this ...

Image

SF
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#5 Postby RNS » Sat Nov 29, 2003 11:59 pm

i dont like the GFS solution either...but the fact that the GFS and GGEM are in the same boat (this run...lol) its something to at least take a quick look at.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Nov 30, 2003 12:11 am

RNS wrote:i dont like the GFS solution either...but the fact that the GFS and GGEM are in the same boat (this run...lol) its something to at least take a quick look at.


Scary, isn't it? Something's up, but the details ... :roll:
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#7 Postby RNS » Sun Nov 30, 2003 12:14 am

after looping the latest IR images there Doesn/t appear IMO to be any CLEARLY DEFINED low level circulation right now...but it bares watching as convection appears to be increasing. Track and development will be key here.
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#8 Postby RNS » Sun Nov 30, 2003 12:19 am

Scary, isn't it? Something's up, but the details ...


exactly...im certian that there is something going on but your right the details are fuzzy at best.

should we get development we then have to look at whether

A) the mid-latitude system draws in and phases the TC developing a major east coast low (worst case senario)

or...

B) just draws in some of the moisture associted with the area of convection,,,hence no TC development takes place

then...

C) no development takes place at all and the mid-latitude system has no interactions with any tropical entities.
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Nov 30, 2003 12:24 am

RNS wrote:after looping the latest IR images there Doesn/t appear IMO to be any CLEARLY DEFINED low level circulation right now...but it bares watching as convection appears to be increasing. Track and development will be key here.


I just looked at water vapor imagery loops ... interesting ... has a better established upper high than a few of our other systems this year ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Not to mention, SST's are still very warm in that region ...
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#10 Postby RNS » Sun Nov 30, 2003 12:35 am

I just looked at water vapor imagery loops ... interesting ... has a better established upper high than a few of our other systems this year ...


I noticed that too which is key in this crazy situation...b/c it obviously would promote development. it could very well be that the models are keying in on that...thus the reason for the bullish development ideas.

and those SSTs in the car would further support development the development ideas.
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#11 Postby wx247 » Sun Nov 30, 2003 9:53 am

Wow... that model data is kind of frightening. I will definitely keep checking back on this one. You both are doing a great job discussing. Keep it up! You are both valuable to this message board.
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#12 Postby Anonymous » Sun Nov 30, 2003 1:38 pm

Noreaster/gale in Jacksonville's Hazardous wx outlook...could be interresting...

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY MID-WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THESE TWO PRESSURE CENTERS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING A MARKED INCREASE IN THE
COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HEAVY SURF AND BEACH
EROSION ARE POSSIBLE. DENSE CLOUD COVER AND A COUPLE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. A LOCAL GALE MAY DEVELOP
IN THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. AS THIS EVENT
APPROACHES...MORE SPECIFIC AND DETAILED INFORMATION WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE.
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