Possible Noreaster next weekend??

[James5o4]

hey guys,
I was at my local abc7 weather board, and everyone is talking about a possible noreaster for next weekend. They say that some models are showing a major storm which will dump snow on nyc and north. Is this true?? Im checking sites like accuW, weather.com, noaa, and other sites but they say nothing about this...Can someone tell me if a storm is possible next weekend?? Thanks..

[Colin]

Well, all models are beginning to show a system developing out in the Plains by mid week, and the EURO that just came out has this system farther south in the Plains, which is awesome news for at least a few inches of snow from DC north. This could be the first winter storm for the MA and especially coastal parts of the NE, but if recent model trends are correct, such as the EURO, parts of the Northeast, potentially up into the NYC area, may get some snow out of this.

Lets keep our fingers crossed! Some experts here could probably provide you with some more insight on this possible event.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It was just an overruning event on Dec 5th, 2002. However about 8 inches of snow fell in Baltimore on Dec 5, 2002. It was definitely a potent winter storm because usually intense snows in December don't occur very often around here except in small spurts.

The Dec 5th, 2002 storm was just the beginning of a record setting winter season in 2002-2003 as far as snowfall is concerned. Hopefully the trends with this major nor'easter potential pans out. I could use a blizzard if you know what I mean. It just gives me a good wake up call, you know what I'm saying?? Chasing blizzards would be awesome too. We can only hope!!

Jim

[ColdFront77]

hey guys,
I was at my local abc7 weather board, and everyone is talking about a possible noreaster for next weekend. They say that some models are showing a major storm which will dump snow on nyc and north. Is this true?? Im checking sites like accuW, weather.com, noaa, and other sites but they say nothing about this...Can someone tell me if a storm is possible next weekend?? Thanks..

ABC7, Washington, D.C.?

[RNS]

Yes...the GFS 18z run this afternoon was big into the event as well...howere there are some complications.

Lets first look at how the system comes together. the following set of figures show GFS 500 hPa Heights and absolute vorticity between 102 and :

102hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 0z 12/3:



108hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 6z 12/3:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

114hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 12z 12/3:



120hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 18z 12/3:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

126hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 0z 12/4:



132hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 6z 12/4:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

138hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 12z 12/4:



144hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 18z 12/4:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

150hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 0z 12/5:



156hr GFS 500 hPa heights and Vorticity VT 6z 12/3:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

at the beginning of the period in question (120hrs) we notice two critical thing here in the H5 field. the first is the positively tilted trough across new england with a strong PJ s/w rounding the base of the trough. the second is the STJ s/w to the south.
As we continue through the period...getting down to 114 hours something very critical is noticed. we can see the PJ s/w dropping into the STJ s/w as the best of the trough turns meridional and phasing occurs.

now what should happen is that after phasing occurs between the PJ and STJ s/w entities...the remiander of the energy across new england heads out resulting in the formation of a closed low across the middle atlantic. as the low closes off and and the vorticity maximum strengthens...coastal cyclogenesis should take place between the outer-banks and the delmarva.

the following figures show the surface evolution of the system:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_108l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_114l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_126l.gif

as the low closes off...surface low pressure begins to develop in the inverted trough along the coast and then move northeastward. Now here is where the problmes take center stage. the GFS opts to shove the surface low out ot sea then grapb it and bring it back in...this is a highly unlikely solution... my adjustment to the model output would be that the surface low remains closer to the coast the entire time...as it moves more NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD instead of EAST-NORTEASTWARD as it develops. remember the tilt of the trough will change as the low closes off so what is a positively tilted trough to begin with will eventually turn meridional and then negative.

the next problem is what to do about the energy on the heels of the system...the GFS is most likely in error here as that system will kick out the closed low in the middle-atlantic instreead of attempt to phase with it as the GFS implies. or it could be that the GFS is too fast with the second PJ s/w...and the adjustment would be to move that system further back and have it considerably weaker.

the typical GFS bias is to enhance the PJ and supress the sub-tropical branch...and that follow up s/w is classic GFS error.

we/ll have to see what the EC tonight wantsa to do and the remainder of the 0z models for now though it does look impressive.

SF brought up a good point about the model trends. it does appear as if the system will trend further north and much stronger as we head closer to the verification time.

[chadtm80]

RNS as always, your great insight is GREATLY appreciated!!

[RNS]

RNS as always, your great insight is GREATLY appreciated!!

thanks chad...

[WXBUFFJIM]

The insight is awesome and very professional too. It will be interesting to see how this winter fares for the megalopolis!! It would be very unusual to see a winter this year just like last year, especially when you start talking about record snowfalls!!!

Jim

[Dave C]

Good stuff!!!! Here in southeast New England the only problem for mostly snow scenerio would be 45-50deg. water temps to our east. Strong upper support with heavy precip. to keep bringing down cold air from aloft will be a big help. Also, the surface track can't be too close or winds would be more east instead of NE which would warm us up too much as well. A real watcher!!!!

[RNS]

actually that warm water and heat content dave would be a plus for you. the cold air will hold and the heating provided by that would lead to increased moisture uptake and heavier precipitation...providing this works out

[ColdFront77]

Good stuff!!!! Here in southeast New England the only problem for mostly snow scenerio would be 45-50deg. water temps to our east. Strong upper support with heavy precip. to keep bringing down cold air from aloft will be a big help. Also, the surface track can't be too close or winds would be more east instead of NE which would warm us up too much as well. A real watcher!!!!

Dave, I remember those events well from several miles to your north.

[wow]

trend further north and stronger? try dead and buried with the next run.