No Extreme Cold in the East Likely During Next 10-15 Days

[donsutherland1]

It appears that there will be no extreme cold in the eastern United States through the next 10-15 days if analogs and the evolving patterns are representative.

With regard to overall temperatures during the December 1-15 period, the following appears likely in my view:

<i>Northeast:</i> Near normal to somewhat below normal with the coldest anomalies located from central New York State and central New England northward.

<i>Mid-Atlantic region:</i> Near normal to somewhat above normal for the period.

Also, the December 1-7 period should likely see readings near normal or somewhat below normal while the December 8-14 period sees readings near normal to somewhat above normal on average.

High temperature anomalies should not approach the magnitude of those seen during the last half of November, but some much above normal highs do appear likely.

Possible Extremes for the period:

Boston: 56-21
New York City: 57-25
Washington, DC: 60-25

As for the <b>estimates</b> for November 16-30, the general idea with regard to highs was fairly close; the lows, though, were too cold. We'll see whether tonight can trim some of the error with respect to the lows.

<i>Estimated Highs vs. Actual Highs:</i>
Boston: 63 vs. 63
New York City: 64 vs. 64
Washington, DC: 67 vs. 74

<i>Estimated Lows vs. Actual Lows:</i>
Boston: 23 vs. 31
New York City: 26 vs. 36
Washington, DC: 26 vs. 33

Overall, a disaster with respect to the lows.

Several things to look for during the first half of December:

1) NAO could go negative beginning 12/3-7. How deeply negative remains to be seen, though some of the ensembles are quite bullish on a strongly negative NAO. I'm not as confident that the NAO will go as strongly negative as hinted at by some of the ensembles.

2) Although temperatures across Canada are cooling from their much above normal levels, it does not appear likely that exceptional cold will pose a threat to the Eastern U.S. for the next two weeks. Some decent shots of cold are likely, especially during the first week in December.

3) Based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and also the SOI, it appears possible that a major amplification could occur around mid-month +/- 2 days. If some of the past analogs are of any use, look for coastal sections to see rain or snow changing to rain. Across northern New England, western and upstate New York, odds are more favorable for mainly snow. Colder air could follow this amplification.

4) Through much of the first half of December, the pattern should remain generally progressive.

Finally, in terms of monthly snowfall, it does appear that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions will see some accumulation during December. Amounts should be notably less than those of last December for the big cities. Some general ideas from past years in which the pattern ending in November was reasonably similar to that of this year:

Boston: 3"-7" (moderate risk for much more)
New York City: 2.5"-5.5" (low risk of somewhat more)
Washington, DC: Trace to 1.5" (low risk of much more)

[WoodstockWX]

sounds good.

at least for the next week or 2 it should continue to stay near normal in the far NE but stay somewhat mild in the middle (atlantic) northeast.

Have to agree with you on the snowfall amounts too, a little below normal for new england and below normal for the MA.

[Colin]

I'm just about ready to say there won't be a winter.

[WEATHER53]

There will be a winter. This is all still following the 79-80 analog profile. Some of the activities to change things around are showing some signs. The west coast is starting now to get strong lows moving into northern california and psints north, repeated lows south of this tend to traverse into the mid usa and move up into the lakes=warmth for east. Eventually a north-western usa strong low moves jsut west or thru hudson bay area and as mother nautes balances things out in the wake of that departing storm high pressure moves into hudson bay region forcing colder air down into eastern usa. The completion of this transition will take at least one month and possibly two, it will happen, and this will put an end to the persistent west of applchn moves for storm systems that has dominated since 10/10 and will continue to dominate thru end of Dec.

[JCT777]

Great info, Don. Agreed with your analysis, although the next few days certainly appear to be the closest thing to extreme cold we have seen in several months. High temps in my area are predicted to be in the mid-30's with lows in the upper teens. This is about 12 to 14 degrees colder than normal.