SNOW STORM FOR VA NEXT WEEK?????

[hurricanedude]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2003
FOR WED-THU. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE A CONCERN HOWEVER...AS 850 MB
TEMPS RANGE BTWN -2 AND -4C (1000/500 MB THICKNESS <540 DM).
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT HAS A GOOD
CHANCE TO BE SNOW.

[RNS]

I wouldint get too excited yet...if later runs of the GFS are more impressive with the system then its something to take a serious loook at.

otherwise...the coastal threat for next friday...is something to be more concerned about

SFC 6-hr acc precip / 850 hPa temps:



500 hPa heights and vorticity:



the system is not vert impressive in the mid levels and with only a weak s/w digging in across the middle atlantic. there is blocking present to the north across ther Davis strait, however given the lack of amplification, the fact that the PV is failry far top the north...would not a.llow for much amplification, so threfore the s/w would not be allowed to dig as much as it would be given a more aomplified pattern. The braoder wavelengths argue for the system to progress through faraster andf head out to sea instead of come up. there also appears to be no signs of a closed H5 low.

[Stormsfury]

The GFS is completely missing the CAD situation IMHO and I laughed even harder about it's depiction of a tropical system in the Caribbean ... as expected when I looked at the EURO last night, and tonight, as expected, the HIGH is MUCH STRONGER (1045 mb) ... that kind of high, the models will completely underestimate the degree of cold air at the surface, especially with the ageostrophic gradient already showing up on tonight's EURO on Day 7 ... furthermore, it looks as if there's some sort of baroclinic zone taking shape off the South Carolina coast on that timeframe ...

EURO Day 6 Mean Sea Level Pressure - Notice the kink in the isobars around SE Missouri as the low moves into a confluent zone ... which by Day 7 should initiate the transfer to a new low along the SC coast in the baroclinic zone ... Surface Low Pressure cannot move through a low level cold dome of air, and hence transfers it's energy in such a matter ... click HERE for an example of a Miller B scenario ... Notice how the SLP's surround the high wedging down the Eastern Side of the Appalachians??

EURO day 7 Mean Sea Level Pressure

EURO Day 6 850mb RH - Overrunning scenario ... look for temperatures to be a bit colder at the surface than the 850mb temperatures themselves ...

IF the EURO's idea verifies, someone could get a little taste of winter ... however, on the other hand ... if the low shears out in the confluent zone, just look for a general raw, cloudy, brisk day (dry CAD wedging).

SF

[ColdFront77]

I'll say that is a rapidly deepening high pressure system over southeastern Canada/northeastern U.S. from Day 5 to Day 6!
You don't see 7 millibar pressure rises that often... 1038 mb up to 1045 mb (or about a 0.21 of an inch) in about twenty-four
hours.