New storm system this weekend...northeast US, get ready!!!!

WXBUFFJIM · #1 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Thu Nov 27, 2003 5:41 pm

Good evening everyone. Happy thanksgiving to all of you on this board and everyone else you folks know and love. I hope you folks are having a great evening.

Weatherwise, it couldn't be any better for a thanksgiving day for the middle atlantic and up into New York City where skies were clear at one point early this morning. Timing couldn't be any better for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City. Clouds have increased in all these areas tonight and rain will settle in Friday followed by strong winds, alittle wintry weather north and west of the big cities and colder temps this weekend.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS: A low pressure wave is forecast to develop tonight along the cold front in the southeastern United States and track northeast towards the great Smoky Mountains tomorrow morning and towards western Pennsylvania by Friday evening. As this low pressire wave tracks northeast throughout the day Friday, it will intensify to 992 millibars or 29.27 inches tomorrow night. Showers will trail this developing low along the trailing cold front from New York City down into DC and Baltimore Friday afternoon and evening. The showers could be accompanied by a thunderstorm or two and gusty shifting winds along the boundary.

Following the cold front, temperatures plunge with highs Saturday only near 40 in Boston, New York, and Philly and about 45 for DC and Baltimore. Meanwhile low pressure is expected to bomb to 972 millibars by 2 pm on Saturday and 968 millibars by Saturday night. Bottom line, strong gusty winds and lake effect snows will be a huge problem Saturday for the northeast. Some lake effect favored areas such as lakes erie and Ontario could see nearly a foot of snow in spots. This will be localized in bands as colder air moves over warmer lake waters in the northwesterly flow. There is the potential for such a strong cold air advection pattern in place and strong winds that some flurries or very brief snow showers reach DC, Baltimore through Boston Saturday, particularly Saturday morning. Little or No accumulation is expected in these areas. However another story will be the wind gusts. Wind gusts could exceed 50-60 mph in the Great Lakes region by Saturday and 45-50 mph gusts from Boston straight down into DC and Baltimore. Whatever snow is on the ground will be blown around by these winds and we'll have to concern ourselves with blizzard conditions. Gale warnings may become neccessary from the Delaware coast northward into the New England coast Friday night through Saturday. Even parts of the Chesapeake Bay could see gale force gusts easily reached by Saturday morning.

In summary expect a wet and breezy I 95 corridor tomorrow into tomorrow night. Then by Saturday expect a windy and wintry time for the northeast. All areas north and west of I 95 should be on the lookout for flurries or a possible snow shower. However the most significant snow accumulation of 6-12 inches or possibly more will be in the lake effect favored areas. This includes such places as the eastern snowburbs of Cleveland, OH, Erie, PA, Dunkirk, NY, the south towns of Buffalo, and possibly around Rochester and Syracuse, NY. This lake effect event will last through most of Saturday before taperin off Sunday as a more zonal flow takes hold across the country.

I'll keep ya posted on all the goings on!!!

Jim

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Thu Nov 27, 2003 6:29 pm

Great analysis, Jim!

stormraiser · #3 Postby **stormraiser** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 2:52 pm

Any updates on this, Jim?

I am in the Southtowns of Buffalo, and NWS is calling for only 2-4. That's plenty,but nothing compared to the 6-12 you said are possible

WXBUFFJIM · #4 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 3:14 pm

The 6-12 inch potential is localized and it will likely be closer to 6 inches. The fast movement of this system will likely keep accumulations on the max closer to 6 inches. But also note the winds will be strong enough to create near whiteout conditions!!

I'll be updating the entire situation coming up this evening.

Jim

#5 Postby **msbee** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 7:24 pm

BRRR!!!!!!!! :lol:

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:21 pm

msbee wrote:BRRR!!!!!!!!

BRRRRRR is right, msbee!!!

Someone take me down to the Bahamas, please!!!!

Its COLD here!!! 42 degrees, 25 DP with 12-20mph N winds!!! Possible Snow shower late!!!

I want my OBX weather!!!

Msbee, you got the right idea!!! Where you live is perfect!!!! You have 85 degree temps with 74 degree dewpoints!!!!

-Nags Head JEB!!!! The Bahamas are The place to BE!!!
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:28 pm

Jeb wrote:
msbee wrote:BRRR!!!!!!!!

BRRRRRR is right, msbee!!!

Someone take me down to the Bahamas, please!!!!

Its COLD here!!! 42 degrees, 25 DP with 12-20mph N winds!!! Possible Snow shower late!!!

I want my OBX weather!!!

Msbee, you got the right idea!!! Where you live is perfect!!!! You have 85 degree temps with 74 degree dewpoints!!!!

-Nags Head JEB!!!! The Bahamas are The place to BE!!!
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

Someone mind going back to OBX and dragging the REAL Jeb back please :eek:

!!!!! And yes im talking the one with the ever ready SNOW SHOVEL!!!!!!!LOL

therock1811 · #8 Postby **therock1811** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:38 pm

King, I'll gladly go down there...he needs to get back here and soon... :lol:

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:44 pm

king of weather wrote:
Jeb wrote:
msbee wrote:BRRR!!!!!!!!

BRRRRRR is right, msbee!!!

Someone take me down to the Bahamas, please!!!!

Its COLD here!!! 42 degrees, 25 DP with 12-20mph N winds!!! Possible Snow shower late!!!

I want my OBX weather!!!

Msbee, you got the right idea!!! Where you live is perfect!!!! You have 85 degree temps with 74 degree dewpoints!!!!

-Nags Head JEB!!!! The Bahamas are The place to BE!!!
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

Someone mind going back to OBX and dragging the REAL Jeb back please !!!!! And yes im talking the one with the ever ready SNOW SHOVEL!!!!!!!LOL

Don't you worry, King of Weather!!

Because the first snow to accumulate here in N VA will only take about 12 hours to get me back onto a full winter footing. All it will take is 3 or more inches. Some models are suggesting that could happen late next week here in Northern Virginia. Yeah, I'll cry for my warm 77-degree temps with 65 degree dewpoints and jebwalks down the beach, but then the Snow will get ahold of me again. It really doesn't take long, once I see it and begin to associate some of my Christian songs with it.

I really love my Christian Singles group, and we went down to OBX in October. As if getting severely bitten by the OBX bug wasn't bad enough, the Singles group director, Bill Baker, who is one of my best friends, got married on Nov 22 and guess where he got to go? Yep, right down to the Bahamas on a cruise ship, with his new bride, Jenny !!! Where he is now, its about 83 degrees with dewpoints right where I love 'em: 67 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now I love the Bahamas, because of Bill

I would like some highs in the low 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. That's classical OBX weather!!!

And, I'd love to go to Pelican Cay in The Bahamas:
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

But Rest Assured, King of Weather:
I have five Digging Shovels, all oiled up and ready to be used to shovel mass amounts of snow!!! I STILL like the snow too!!!!

Look at it this way, King of Weather:
If storms this winter track in such a way that I get highs in the low 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, you will get the cold part of any storm, along with tons of wind-driven snow. You'll be happy, and I'll have my OBX weather!! If we get snow, well, I guess I'll like that, but I'd rather we had warm OBX/Bahamas weather and you get 36 inches of snow. If you do, maybe I'll come on up and help you shovel out!!

-Nags Head JEB!!!!

It's Better in the Bahamas!!!
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

therock1811 · #10 Postby **therock1811** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:51 pm

Hey Jeb, I've had snow off and on all day...if it keeps coming, it'll all stick...

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:56 pm

Yea i can finally say i have had my first snow here today/this evening. About a inch so far (Grass/cars) Woohoo. Long time comming!!!! Get ready Jeb its comming your way eventually!

therock1811 · #12 Postby **therock1811** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 8:58 pm

it has only accumulated to about a dusting to a covering here in N KY, mostly on cars and things like that, decks, pool covers, etc....

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 28, 2003 9:07 pm

We get this on and off light rain here. Its 39 and falling. We just may get that snow squall they warned about later tonight. Ground's a bit too warm for it to accumulate, because of all the OBX weather we've been having.

But I have this feeling we are gonna get clobbered with tremendous amounts of snow later this winter.

Hey! Its not even winter yet!!! lol

-Nags Head JEB!!!! Bring ON that OBX weather!!!
http://www.abaco.tv/abaco-islands-beach ... -beach.asp

New storm system this weekend...northeast US, get ready!!!!

New storm system this weekend...northeast US, get ready!!!!

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